ÚrvalsdeildFull time

Predictions graded

Thor Akureyri1FH Hafnarfjordur0

HT 0–0Sun 6 Sept 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions1–910%

Edges1–614%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 3 Sep 2026, 00:51 · Europe/Bucharest

FH Hafnarfjordur are the likely winners over Thor Akureyri, but the betting market offers no value on FH, the double chance, or over 2.5 goals, as all odds imply higher probabilities than our model estimates.

Avoid these markets and consider in-play or alternative bets.

Context

This is the final first-phase round before the league splits into upper and lower sections. FH sit ninth on 21 points and Þór tenth on 18, each after 21 matches.
The result directly shapes lower-six positioning, with the lower section primarily concerned with avoiding relegation. Both teams therefore have a clear competitive incentive to secure points in this fixture. The linked analysis outlook supports FH as the more likely match winner based on their better overall and away form, though the outcome remains uncertain.
- KSÍ’s 2026 table lists FH ninth on 21 points and Þór tenth on 18, with each team having played 21 matches.
- KSÍ states that the league splits into upper and lower sections after the first 22 rounds, with the lower section primarily concerned with avoiding relegation.
ConfirmedSources checked 3 Sep 2026, 00:50 · Europe/BucharestKSÍ 2026 Besta deild karla tablewww.ksi.is · 2 Sep 2026KSÍ competition-format reportwww.ksi.is · 1 Feb 2026
Thor Akureyri are 10th in the Úrvalsdeild with 18 points from 21 matches.
At home they have won only three of ten matches, losing six and conceding 20 goals. That defensive weakness is a clear problem against any opponent, and FH Hafnarfjordur will look to exploit it. However, Thor's recent home win over Breidablik on 4 August shows they can be competitive at home.
- Thor Akureyri home record: 3 wins, 1 draw, 6 losses in 10 matches.
- Thor Akureyri have conceded 20 goals at home, an average of 2.0 per match.
- Thor Akureyri lost 0-2 at home to Keflavik on 15 August 2026.
Þór midfielder B. Brynjólfsson is suspended for this match after a red card on 30 August. He had started all five recent fixtures with available lineups.
His absence removes a regular starter from Þór's midfield and forces a selection adjustment. The team will need to replace his role in the lineup, which could affect their structure in a match that determines lower-six positioning.
- KSÍ’s active-suspensions register lists Bjarni Guðjón Brynjólfsson of Þór with one match remaining for a red card dated 30 August.
- The red card is recorded in the 2026 senior men’s Icelandic league competition.
- B. Brynjólfsson started 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 3 Sep 2026, 00:50 · Europe/BucharestKSÍ active suspensionswww.ksi.is · 30 Aug 2026
FH Hafnarfjordur are 9th in the Úrvalsdeild with 21 points from 21 matches.
Their away record is weak: two wins, four draws, and four losses, with 21 goals conceded. That suggests they often fail to control matches on the road. However, they did win 1-0 at KA Akureyri on 9 August, showing they can grind out away results.
- FH Hafnarfjordur away record: 2 wins, 4 draws, 4 losses in 10 matches.
- FH Hafnarfjordur have conceded 21 goals away, an average of 2.1 per match.
- FH Hafnarfjordur won 1-0 at KA Akureyri on 9 August 2026.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 7

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

FH Hafnarfjordur

2.00fair 2.38

BetBugs 42% · Market 50%

0.0ppshort

FH's better overall and away form, combined with Thor's poor home record and defensive frailty, gives FH the edge.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or FH Hafnarfjordur

1.33fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 75%

0.0ppshort

FH's high draw rate and Thor's poor home form make a draw or FH win likely.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.45fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 69%

0.0ppshort

Thor's matches average 3.3 total goals and FH have scored in 15 of 21, but the odds imply a 69% chance, far above our 55% estimate.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.45fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 69%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have scored and conceded regularly, but the odds imply a 69% chance versus our 58% estimate, leaving no value.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.20fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 83.3%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to score or concede in the first half, but the odds imply an 83% chance versus our 65% estimate, making it a poor value bet.

Team to ScorelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

FH Hafnarfjordur to score

1.13fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 88.5%

0.0ppshort

Thor's poor defensive record makes a clean sheet unlikely, but the odds imply an 88.5% chance versus our 70% estimate, leaving no value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
FH's better overall and away form, combined with Thor's poor home record and defensive frailty, gives FH the edge.
- FH are 9th with 21 points, Thor 10th with 18 points after 21 matches.
- FH's away record: 2W 4D 4L, Thor's home record: 3W 1D 6L.
- Thor have conceded 50 goals in 21 matches, FH 38.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostFH HafnarfjordurEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
FH's high draw rate and Thor's poor home form make a draw or FH win likely.
- FH have drawn 9 of 21 matches, Thor 3 of 21.
- FH's away record: 2W 4D 4L, Thor's home record: 3W 1D 6L.
- Last H2H meeting ended 1-1.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or FH HafnarfjordurEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
FH's better first-half record and Thor's tendency to trail give FH a slight edge.
- FH lead at half-time in 33% of matches, Thor in 27%.
- Thor trail at half-time in 60% of matches.
- FH's first-half goal difference is +0.2, Thor's -0.6.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostFH HafnarfjordurEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by FH win is a plausible scenario given FH's resilience and Thor's second-half struggles.
- FH have drawn at half-time in 47% of matches.
- FH have won 4 of 21 matches overall.
- Thor have lost 13 of 21 matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/FH HafnarfjordurEstimated chance22%

Goals1 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Thor's defensive weakness and FH's ability to score suggest a higher-scoring match.
- Thor's matches average 3.3 total goals (1.1 for, 2.2 against).
- FH's matches average 2.4 total goals (1.1 for, 1.3 against).
- Thor have conceded 50 goals in 21 matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown they can score and concede, making BTTS likely.
- Thor have scored in 14 of 21 matches, FH in 15 of 21.
- Thor have conceded in 19 of 21 matches, FH in 16 of 21.
- Last H2H meeting ended 1-1.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score or concede in the first half, making over 0.5 first-half goals likely.
- Thor average 0.5 first-half goals for and 1.1 against.
- FH average 0.7 first-half goals for and 0.5 against.
- Thor have trailed at half-time in 60% of matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is plausible given both teams' defensive lapses, but confidence is low.
- Thor's matches average 1.6 second-half goals (total minus first-half).
- FH's matches average 1.2 second-half goals.
- Thor have conceded heavily in second halves in several matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Thor's poor defensive record makes a clean sheet unlikely.
- Thor have conceded in 19 of 21 matches.
- FH have scored in 15 of 21 matches.
- Thor's home record: 3W 1D 6L with 20 goals conceded in 10 home matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostFH Hafnarfjordur to scoreEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
FH's away defensive record is not strong enough to expect a clean sheet.
- FH have conceded in 16 of 21 matches.
- Thor have scored in 14 of 21 matches.
- FH's away record: 2W 4D 4L with 21 goals conceded in 10 away matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonThor Akureyri to scoreEstimated chance62%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 50% exceeds our 42% estimate; no value cushion and the price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

0W · 2D · 3W

D1-1FH hafnarfjordurvThor AkureyriJun 21, 2026ÚRV

L2-4Thor AkureyrivFH hafnarfjordurApr 4, 2026CUP

D2-2Thor AkureyrivFH hafnarfjordurMar 11, 2025LEA

L4-0FH hafnarfjordurvThor AkureyriMar 6, 2021LEA

L3-1FH hafnarfjordurvThor AkureyriJul 30, 2020CUP

FH Hafnarfjordur unbeaten in 5 meetings4 goals/game avg

League Table

Úrvalsdeild 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
10	Thor Akureyri Relegation Playoffs	21	5	3	13	21-50	18	WLLLW
9	FH Hafnarfjordur Relegation Playoffs	21	4	9	8	27-38	21	WDLWD

3pt gap between teamsThor Akureyri in relegation zoneFH Hafnarfjordur in relegation zone

Recent Form

Thor Akureyri

W1-0IBV VestmannaeyjarAug 29ÚRV

L2-4StjarnanAug 23ÚRV

L0-2KeflavikAug 15ÚRV

L0-2IA AkranesAug 9ÚRV

W1-0BreidablikAug 4ÚRV

D0-0KA AkureyriJul 27ÚRV

W2-1Vikingur ReykjavikJul 18ÚRV

L1-6Fram ReykjavikJul 12ÚRV

D3-3KR ReykjavikJul 2ÚRV

L2-4Valur ReykjavikJun 28ÚRV

D1-1FH hafnarfjordurJun 21ÚRV

L1-4IBV VestmannaeyjarJun 14ÚRV

L1-3StjarnanMay 31ÚRV

L0-1KeflavikMay 22ÚRV

L1-2IA AkranesMay 17ÚRV

FH Hafnarfjordur

W2-1KeflavikAug 30ÚRV

D1-1IA AkranesAug 23ÚRV

L2-4Vikingur ReykjavikAug 16ÚRV

W1-0KA AkureyriAug 9ÚRV

D1-1KR ReykjavikAug 5ÚRV

D0-0Fram ReykjavikJul 26ÚRV

D0-0BreidablikJul 20ÚRV

W2-0Valur ReykjavikJul 12ÚRV

D2-2StjarnanJul 3ÚRV

D1-1IBV VestmannaeyjarJun 28ÚRV

D1-1Thor AkureyriJun 21ÚRV

W2-1KeflavikJun 14ÚRV

L0-1IA AkranesMay 29ÚRV

L0-5Vikingur ReykjavikMay 22ÚRV

L1-2KA AkureyriMay 17ÚRV

Squad & Injuries

Thor Akureyri

31 available

Attackers7

Midfielders14

Defenders7

Goalkeeper3

FH Hafnarfjordur

29 available

Attackers10

Midfielders7

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

FH Hafnarfjordur

Draw or FH Hafnarfjordur

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 0.5

FH Hafnarfjordur to score

Thor Akureyri to score

Result0 of 4 landed

Goals1 of 6 landed

Markets to Avoid

FH Hafnarfjordur

Draw or FH Hafnarfjordur

Over 2.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Thor Akureyri

FH Hafnarfjordur

Squad & Injuries

Thor Akureyri

FH Hafnarfjordur