ÚrvalsdeildFull time

Predictions graded

IBV Vestmannaeyjar0Thor Akureyri1

HT 0–1Sat 29 Aug 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions1–713%

Edges1–517%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Aug 2026, 23:44 · Europe/Bucharest

IBV's H2H edge and Thor's away struggles make the home side likely to avoid defeat, but the odds offer no value on the outright or double chance.

The only small edge is Over 1.5 second-half goals at 1.95, though confidence is medium.

Context

Thor Akureyri are bottom of the Úrvalsdeild with 15 points from 20 matches. Their away record is the worst in the league: one win, two draws, and seven defeats.
In ten away games, Thor Akureyri have scored only eight goals and conceded 30. Recent away results include a 4-2 loss at Stjarnan on 23 August and a 2-0 loss at IA Akranes on 9 August. This pattern suggests they struggle to control matches on the road, especially defensively. IBV Vestmannaeyjar, despite their own poor form, have scored 17 goals in ten home matches, so they may find chances against this away defence.
- Thor Akureyri away record: 1 win, 2 draws, 7 losses in 10 matches.
- Thor Akureyri have conceded 30 away goals, an average of 3.0 per game.
- Recent away losses: 2-4 at Stjarnan (23 Aug 2026) and 0-2 at IA Akranes (9 Aug 2026).
IBV Vestmannaeyjar sit 10th in the table with 17 points, only two points above the relegation playoff line. Their recent form is concerning: LLDLL.
They lost 0-1 at Keflavik on 23 August, 1-3 at home to IA Akranes on 16 August, and 1-2 at home to Fram Reykjavik on 1 August. The only point in that stretch came from a 2-2 draw at Vikingur Reykjavik on 9 August. This run suggests defensive issues, as they have conceded at least one goal in each of those five matches. However, they did beat Thor Akureyri 4-1 away in June, so they have a recent positive reference against this opponent.
- IBV Vestmannaeyjar last five league results: L, L, D, L, L.
- They lost 0-1 at Keflavik (23 Aug 2026), 1-3 vs IA Akranes (16 Aug 2026), and 1-2 vs Fram Reykjavik (1 Aug 2026).
- They have conceded in each of their last five matches.
The most recent head-to-head match was on 14 June 2026, when IBV Vestmannaeyjar won 4-1 at Thor Akureyri.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar scored three goals in the first half and added a fourth after the break. That result is part of a broader pattern: IBV have won three of the last five meetings, with Thor winning only once. However, the teams have not played at IBV's home ground since 2024, so the venue factor is less clear. Still, IBV's attacking output in that June match suggests they can exploit Thor's defence again.
- 14 Jun 2026: Thor Akureyri 1-4 IBV Vestmannaeyjar (IBV scored 3 first-half goals).
- IBV have won 3 of the last 5 head-to-head matches.
- The last meeting at IBV's home was a 1-1 draw on 20 May 2024.
ÍBV defender A. Kristinsson said the team had a good training week but had started the previous one or two matches too slowly.
He said ÍBV aim to control the match from the first minute and improve in both penalty areas. That stated focus on early concentration and control addresses a recent problem, but it is a stated intention rather than a proven change in match behaviour.
- On 28 August, Kristinsson said ÍBV had completed a good training week before the match.
- He said ÍBV needed to control the game and be ready from the first minute after slow starts in the previous one or two matches.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Aug 2026, 10:15 · Europe/BucharestFótbolti.net interviewwww.fotbolti.net · 28 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

1.65fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 60.6%

0.0ppshort

H2H psychology and home advantage favor IBV, though both teams are in poor form.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

IBV Vestmannaeyjar or Draw

1.22fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 82%

−12.0ppshort

Thor's away struggles and IBV's H2H edge make the home side unlikely to lose.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.40fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 71.4%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have leaky defenses and the recent H2H was high-scoring, but the odds offer no value relative to our estimate.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.45fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 69%

0.0ppshort

Both teams regularly concede and have decent scoring records, but the odds are far too short for our probability.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
H2H psychology and home advantage favor IBV, though both teams are in poor form.
- IBV won the reverse fixture 4-1 on 14 Jun 2026
- IBV are unbeaten in last 3 H2H (2W,1D)
- Thor have 1 win in last 10 away matches
- IBV home record: 3W,2D,5L; Thor away: 1W,2D,7L
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostIBV VestmannaeyjarEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Thor's away struggles and IBV's H2H edge make the home side unlikely to lose.
- IBV unbeaten in last 3 H2H
- Thor have lost 7 of 10 away matches
- IBV have drawn 2 of last 5 home matches
BetBugs · Double ChancelostIBV Vestmannaeyjar or DrawEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams are slow starters, making a level first half plausible.
- IBV led at half-time in only 20% of matches
- Thor led at half-time in 20% of matches
- Both teams trailed at half-time more often than led
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
IBV could edge a tight game after a level first half, but confidence is low given their form.
- IBV have drawn at half-time in 5 of last 15 matches
- IBV have won 4 of last 15 matches overall
- Thor have lost 13 of 20 matches this season
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / IBV VestmannaeyjarEstimated chance20%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have leaky defenses and the recent H2H was high-scoring.
- IBV average 1.6 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per match
- Thor average 1.0 goals scored and 2.6 conceded per match
- Combined average goals per match: 3.3
- Last H2H produced 5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams regularly concede and have decent scoring records, making BTTS likely.
- IBV scored in 12 of last 15 matches
- Thor scored in 8 of last 15 matches
- Thor conceded in 13 of last 15 matches
- IBV conceded in 13 of last 15 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams often concede in the first half, especially Thor, making a first-half goal likely.
- IBV first-half goals: 0.6 per match, conceded 0.7
- Thor first-half goals: 0.4 per match, conceded 1.3
- Thor trailed at half-time in 67% of matches
- IBV trailed at half-time in 47% of matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves tend to be more open as both teams chase points in a relegation battle.
- IBV average 1.0 second-half goals (total 1.6 - 0.6 first-half)
- Thor average 0.6 second-half goals (total 1.0 - 0.4 first-half)
- Combined second-half average: 1.6 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Without corner stats, this is a speculative pick based on typical match flow.
- Corner data unavailable for both teams
- Both teams average low possession and shots, suggesting fewer corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
High stakes could lead to more cards, but no concrete data supports this.
- Foul and card data unavailable
- Relegation six-pointer likely to be intense
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 61% leaves no cushion vs our 45% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

4W · 1D · 0W

W1-4Thor AkureyrivIBV VestmannaeyjarJun 14, 2026ÚRV

W0-3Thor AkureyrivIBV VestmannaeyjarJul 27, 20241.

D1-1IBV VestmannaeyjarvThor AkureyriMay 20, 20241.

W0-1Thor AkureyrivIBV VestmannaeyjarAug 31, 20211.

W2-1IBV VestmannaeyjarvThor AkureyriJun 14, 20211.

IBV Vestmannaeyjar unbeaten in 5 meetingsIBV Vestmannaeyjar: 2 clean sheets2.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Úrvalsdeild 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
10	IBV Vestmannaeyjar Relegation Playoffs	20	4	5	11	30-42	17	LLDLL
12	Thor Akureyri Relegation Playoffs	20	4	3	13	20-50	15	LLLWD

2pt gap between teamsIBV Vestmannaeyjar in relegation zoneThor Akureyri in relegation zone

Recent Form

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

L0-1KeflavikAug 23ÚRV

L1-3IA AkranesAug 16ÚRV

D2-2Vikingur ReykjavikAug 9ÚRV

L1-2Fram ReykjavikAug 1ÚRV

L0-1BreidablikJul 27ÚRV

D2-2KA AkureyriJul 19ÚRV

L2-5KR ReykjavikJul 12ÚRV

W1-0Valur ReykjavikJul 4ÚRV

D1-1FH hafnarfjordurJun 28ÚRV

W2-1StjarnanJun 21ÚRV

W4-1Thor AkureyriJun 14ÚRV

W6-1KeflavikMay 31ÚRV

D2-2IA AkranesMay 21ÚRV

L0-2Vikingur ReykjavikMay 17ÚRV

L0-2KA AkureyriMay 10ÚRV

Thor Akureyri

L2-4StjarnanAug 23ÚRV

L0-2KeflavikAug 15ÚRV

L0-2IA AkranesAug 9ÚRV

W1-0BreidablikAug 4ÚRV

D0-0KA AkureyriJul 27ÚRV

W2-1Vikingur ReykjavikJul 18ÚRV

L1-6Fram ReykjavikJul 12ÚRV

D3-3KR ReykjavikJul 2ÚRV

L2-4Valur ReykjavikJun 28ÚRV

D1-1FH hafnarfjordurJun 21ÚRV

L1-4IBV VestmannaeyjarJun 14ÚRV

L1-3StjarnanMay 31ÚRV

L0-1KeflavikMay 22ÚRV

L1-2IA AkranesMay 17ÚRV

L0-6Vikingur ReykjavikMay 8ÚRV

Squad & Injuries

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

26 available

Attackers9

Midfielders11

Defenders5

Goalkeeper1

Thor Akureyri

32 available

Attackers7

Midfielders13

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 1.5

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

IBV Vestmannaeyjar or Draw

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 0.5

Result0 of 4 landed

Goals1 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

IBV Vestmannaeyjar or Draw

Over 2.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

Thor Akureyri

Squad & Injuries

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

Thor Akureyri