ÚrvalsdeildFull time

Predictions graded

IA Akranes2Thor Akureyri0

HT 1–0Sun 9 Aug 2026, 18:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–456%

Edges3–175%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Aug 2026, 00:13 · Europe/Bucharest

IA Akranes are strong favorites based on H2H dominance, but their inconsistent home form and Thor's recent away resilience make the 1.43 odds poor value.

The over 2.5 goals line is heavily juiced, and both teams to score is overpriced. The only market with a marginal edge is over 3.5 goals at 1.67, but it's a coin-flip bet. Avoid the match winner and double chance markets; consider in-play or alternative angles.

Context

IA won 2-1 away on 17 May 2026.
- IA won 3-2 away on 2 September 2023.
- IA won 4-0 at home on 30 June 2023.
Thor drew 0-0 at KA Akureyri on 27 July 2026.
- Thor won 1-0 at Breidablik on 4 August 2026.
- Before these results, Thor had lost 5 of 6 away matches with a 6:24 goal difference.
Home losses: 1-2 vs Breidablik, 0-2 vs Fram, 1-3 vs Keflavik, 1-2 vs Vikingur R. (cup).
- Only home win in last five was 5-1 vs Stjarnan on 26 July 2026.
- Overall home record this season: 2W-3D-3L, 13:13 goals.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

IA Akranes

1.43fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 70%

0.0ppshort

IA Akranes have won the last 3 league H2H meetings and Thor's away record is dreadful (1W-2D-5L, 6:24 goals), but the odds heavily favour IA, leaving no value.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

IA Akranes or Draw

1.14fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 88%

0.0ppshort

IA Akranes' home resilience and Thor's poor away record make IA avoiding defeat likely, but the odds are too short to offer value.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Lean

Over 3.5

1.67fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 59.9%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' matches average well over 3.5 total goals, driven by Thor's leaky defense (2.4 conceded/game) and IA's consistent scoring.

Total Goals HomewonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 1.5

1.29fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 77.5%

−17.0ppshort

IA Akranes average 1.7 goals per match and face a Thor defense conceding 3.0 per away game, making 2+ goals likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
IA Akranes hold a strong H2H psychological edge with three straight league wins over Thor Akureyri, and Thor's poor away form (conceding 24 goals in 8 away games) gives IA a structural home advantage.
- IA Akranes have won the last 3 league H2H meetings vs Thor Akureyri, including a 2-1 away win in May 2026.
- IA Akranes home record this season: 2W-3D-3L, goals 13:13; Thor Akureyri away record: 1W-2D-5L, goals 6:24.
- IA Akranes average 1.7 goals scored per match over last 15; Thor Akureyri concede 2.4 goals per match over last 15.
- Thor Akureyri have lost 10 of 17 league matches this season, with a -24 goal difference.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonIA AkranesEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combining IA Akranes' solid home resilience (only 3 losses in 8) with Thor Akureyri's dreadful away record (1 win in 8) and IA's H2H dominance, the probability of IA avoiding defeat is high.
- IA Akranes have lost only 3 of 8 home matches this season (2W-3D-3L).
- Thor Akureyri have won only 1 of 8 away matches this season (1W-2D-5L).
- IA Akranes are unbeaten in the last 3 league H2H meetings (3 wins).
- Thor Akureyri have lost 10 of 17 league matches overall.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonIA Akranes or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
IA Akranes have a clear first-half edge based on H2H history and Thor's frequent early deficits, though IA's own first-half scoring is not prolific, keeping confidence low.
- IA Akranes led at half-time in 33% of recent matches; Thor Akureyri trailed at half-time in 53%.
- IA Akranes average 0.7 first-half goals scored vs Thor's 1.0 first-half goals conceded.
- In the last 3 league H2H meetings, IA Akranes led at half-time in two (2-0 and 2-0).
- Thor Akureyri have trailed at half-time in 8 of their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonIA AkranesEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
IA Akranes have a slight edge in second-half performance historically against Thor, and Thor's tendency to fade after the break supports a home second-half win, though IA's own second-half defending is shaky.
- IA Akranes have a positive second-half goal difference in 6 of their last 15 matches; Thor Akureyri have a negative second-half goal difference in 9 of 15.
- IA Akranes average 1.0 second-half goals scored vs 1.6 conceded; Thor average 0.5 scored vs 1.4 conceded.
- In the last 3 league H2H meetings, IA Akranes won the second half in two (scoring 2 and 1 while conceding 1 and 0).
- Thor Akureyri have lost the second half in 7 of their last 10 league matches.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonIA AkranesEstimated chance40%

Goals1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams are involved in high-scoring matches on average, with IA's home games and Thor's away games both exceeding 3 goals per match, driven by Thor's leaky defense (2.4 conceded per game overall).
- IA Akranes' last 15 matches average 3.9 total goals (1.7 scored, 2.2 conceded).
- Thor Akureyri's last 15 matches average 3.3 total goals (0.9 scored, 2.4 conceded).
- IA Akranes' home matches this season average 3.25 total goals (13 scored, 13 conceded in 8 games).
- Thor Akureyri's away matches this season average 3.75 total goals (6 scored, 24 conceded in 8 games).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
IA Akranes consistently score but also concede, while Thor Akureyri, despite a weak attack, have managed to score in two-thirds of recent matches and face a defense that has kept only 2 clean sheets in 15 games.
- IA Akranes have scored in 13 of their last 15 matches; Thor Akureyri have conceded in 14 of their last 15.
- IA Akranes have conceded in 13 of their last 15 matches; Thor Akureyri have scored in 10 of their last 15.
- In the last 3 league H2H meetings, both teams scored in 2 of them (2-1, 3-2).
- IA Akranes home matches: both teams scored in 6 of 8 this season.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
IA Akranes' consistent scoring output, combined with Thor Akureyri's extremely poor defensive record on the road (3 goals conceded per away game), makes it likely the home side will net at least twice.
- IA Akranes average 1.7 goals per match over last 15, and 1.63 goals per home match this season.
- IA Akranes have scored at least 2 goals in 5 of their last 8 home matches across all competitions.
- Thor Akureyri concede 2.4 goals per match overall and 3.0 goals per away match this season.
- In the last 3 league H2H meetings, IA Akranes scored 2, 3, and 4 goals.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonIA Akranes over 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While both teams' first-half averages are modest, Thor's tendency to concede early (trailing at half-time in over half their matches) and the H2H pattern of multiple first-half goals in two of three meetings suggest a decent chance of over 1.5 first-half goals.
- IA Akranes average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.6 conceded over last 15 matches (1.3 total).
- Thor Akureyri average 0.4 first-half goals scored and 1.0 conceded over last 15 matches (1.4 total).
- IA Akranes led at half-time in 33% of recent matches; Thor Akureyri trailed at half-time in 53%.
- In the last 3 league H2H meetings, first-half goals were: 1 (0-1), 2 (2-0), and 2 (2-0).
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With both teams' matches averaging well over 1.5 second-half goals and defenses often weakening later in games, the second half is likely to see multiple goals.
- IA Akranes' last 15 matches average 2.6 second-half goals (total goals 3.9 minus first-half 1.3).
- Thor Akureyri's last 15 matches average 1.9 second-half goals (total 3.3 minus first-half 1.4).
- IA Akranes' home matches this season average 3.25 total goals; Thor's away matches average 3.75 total goals.
- Both teams tend to concede more in the second half: IA concede 1.6 after half-time on average, Thor concede 1.4.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
In the absence of team-specific corner data, the league-wide average suggests a neutral expectation around 10 corners, making over 9.5 a coin-flip proposition with low confidence.
- Corner data is unavailable for both teams in recent matches; league averages in Úrvalsdeild typically range 9-11 corners per game.
- IA Akranes and Thor Akureyri both play in a league where matches average around 10 corners.
- No specific corner trends can be derived from the provided data.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Odds imply a 70% chance, far above our 45% estimate; no value and high risk given IA's inconsistent home form.

Head-to-Head

4W · 1D · 0W

W1-2Thor AkureyrivIA AkranesMay 17, 2026ÚRV

D1-1IA AkranesvThor AkureyriFeb 7, 2026LEA

W2-3Thor AkureyrivIA AkranesSep 2, 20231.

W4-0IA AkranesvThor AkureyriJun 29, 20231.

W3-1IA AkranesvThor AkureyriFeb 12, 2022LEA

IA Akranes unbeaten in 5 meetings3.6 goals/game avg

League Table

Úrvalsdeild 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
7	IA Akranes	17	5	4	8	28-36	19	DWLLL
11	Thor Akureyri	17	4	3	10	18-42	15	WDWLD

4pt gap between teams

Recent Form

IA Akranes

D2-2Vikingur ReykjavikAug 2ÚRV

W5-1StjarnanJul 26ÚRV

L2-5KeflavikJul 20ÚRV

L2-3KA AkureyriJul 12ÚRV

L1-2BreidablikJul 4ÚRV

L0-2Fram ReykjavikJun 29ÚRV

L3-5KR ReykjavikJun 22ÚRV

W1-0Valur ReykjavikJun 16ÚRV

L1-2Vikingur ReykjavikJun 12CUP

W1-0FH hafnarfjordurMay 29ÚRV

D2-2IBV VestmannaeyjarMay 21ÚRV

W2-1Thor AkureyriMay 17ÚRV

L1-3KeflavikMay 8ÚRV

W2-1StjarnanMay 3ÚRV

L0-4Vikingur ReykjavikApr 27ÚRV

Thor Akureyri

W1-0BreidablikAug 4ÚRV

D0-0KA AkureyriJul 27ÚRV

W2-1Vikingur ReykjavikJul 18ÚRV

L1-6Fram ReykjavikJul 12ÚRV

D3-3KR ReykjavikJul 2ÚRV

L2-4Valur ReykjavikJun 28ÚRV

D1-1FH hafnarfjordurJun 21ÚRV

L1-4IBV VestmannaeyjarJun 14ÚRV

L1-3StjarnanMay 31ÚRV

L0-1KeflavikMay 22ÚRV

L1-2IA AkranesMay 17ÚRV

L0-6Vikingur ReykjavikMay 8ÚRV

L0-1KA AkureyriMay 2ÚRV

L0-4BreidablikApr 27ÚRV

W1-0Fram ReykjavikApr 23ÚRV

Squad & Injuries

IA Akranes

28 available

Attackers5

Midfielders9

Defenders10

Goalkeeper4

Thor Akureyri

31 available

Attackers6

Midfielders13

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

IA Akranes

IA Akranes or Draw

Over 3.5

Over 1.5

Result4 of 4 landed

Goals1 of 5 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

IA Akranes

Yes

Over 2.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

IA Akranes

Thor Akureyri

Squad & Injuries

IA Akranes

Thor Akureyri