ÚrvalsdeildFull time

Predictions graded

Thor Akureyri1Breidablik0

HT 1–0Tue 4 Aug 2026, 18:30 Predictions graded

Predictions3–827%

Edges0–40%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Aug 2026, 00:57 · Europe/Bucharest

Breidablik are overwhelming favorites against bottom-side Thor Akureyri, with a 10-point value edge on the away win at 1.62.

Thor's squad weakening and coach ban further tilt the scales, but avoid short-odds traps like Both Teams to Score and first-half goals. The Over 3.5 goals line at 1.78 offers additional value given Thor's defensive frailties.

Context

Kristjánsson had 3 goals in 11 league appearances this season, making him a regular contributor.
- The sale was confirmed on 28 July, just seven days before this match.
- Thor's attack averages only 1.0 goals per game over the last 15 matches.
KSÍ lists Höskuldsson with one match remaining on his ban, dated 28 July.
- The ban applies to Thor's next senior fixture, which is this match against Breidablik.
- Touchline bans can affect tactical adjustments and player communication during the game.
The most recent meeting ended 4-0 to Breidablik on 27 April 2026.
- Breidablik have won 11 of the last 13 H2H matches since 2009.
- Thor have only one win and one draw in that 13-match span.
Thor have 12 points from 16 games, three points behind the team in the last safe position.
- The Úrvalsdeild splits after 22 games, with points carried into the final phase.
- Breidablik are 4th with 29 points, needing points to secure a championship-phase place.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Overwhelming H2H dominance, massive gap in league standings, and Thor's recent squad weakening make Breidablik clear favorites.
- Breidablik won last 3 H2H meetings 7-1 on aggregate, including 4-0 in April 2026.
- Thor Akureyri lost 10 of 16 league matches this season, conceding 42 goals.
- Breidablik are 4th with 29 points, while Thor are bottom with 12 points.
- Thor sold key contributor Ingimar Arnar Kristjánsson (3 goals in 11 apps) on 28 July.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostBreidablikEstimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Breidablik's historical dominance and Thor's poor form make a home win highly unlikely, supporting double chance away.
- Breidablik unbeaten in last 13 H2H meetings (11 wins, 1 draw).
- Thor have only 3 wins in 16 league games this season.
- Breidablik's away record: 2 wins, 4 draws, 2 losses in 8 games.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or BreidablikEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Breidablik's superior first-half stats and Thor's tendency to trail early give the away side an edge, but low confidence due to variability.
- Breidablik led at halftime in 33% of recent matches; Thor trailed at halftime in 60%.
- Thor average 0.3 first-half goals, Breidablik average 0.9.
- Last H2H: Breidablik led 2-0 at halftime.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostBreidablikEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Breidablik's overall superiority and Thor's poor first halves make HT/FT away win possible, but low probability due to Breidablik's inconsistent away form.
- Breidablik led at HT in 33% of matches; Thor trailed at HT in 60%.
- Breidablik won 8 of 16 league matches; Thor lost 10 of 16.
- Last H2H: Breidablik led at HT and won.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostBreidablik/BreidablikEstimated chance35%

Goals3 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Thor's leaky defense and Breidablik's consistent scoring form point to a high-scoring match.
- Thor concede 2.7 goals per game on average over last 15 matches.
- Breidablik score 2.5 goals per game on average over last 15 matches.
- Last H2H ended 4-0; 4 of last 5 Breidablik league games had over 2.5 goals.
- Thor's last 5 home games: 2, 3, 4, 4, 1 goals conceded.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown ability to score while also being vulnerable defensively, making BTTS likely.
- Thor scored in 4 of last 5 home matches.
- Breidablik conceded in 5 of last 6 away matches.
- Breidablik scored in 14 of last 15 matches overall.
- Thor conceded in 14 of last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Breidablik's away defensive record is not solid, and Thor tend to score at home, so an away clean sheet is unlikely.
- Breidablik kept only 2 clean sheets in last 10 away matches.
- Thor scored in 4 of last 5 home games.
- Breidablik conceded in 5 of last 6 away league matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonThor Akureyri to scoreEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Thor's home scoring record and Breidablik's away defensive lapses suggest the hosts will find the net.
- Thor scored in 4 of last 5 home matches.
- Thor average 1.0 goals per game overall in last 15.
- Breidablik conceded in 5 of last 6 away league matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonThor Akureyri over 0.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Breidablik's strong attacking form against a porous Thor defense makes multiple away goals probable.
- Breidablik average 2.5 goals per game in last 15 matches.
- Breidablik scored 2+ goals in 4 of last 5 league matches.
- Thor concede 2.7 goals per game on average.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostBreidablik over 1.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combined first-half averages exceed 1.0, and Thor's early defensive frailties make a first-half goal likely.
- Thor concede 1.1 first-half goals on average.
- Breidablik score 0.9 first-half goals on average.
- In last 5 matches, Thor's first halves: 0,0,1,3,0 goals; Breidablik's: 0,0,0,0,0 (but 4 of last 5 overall had first-half goals).
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' second-half scoring and conceding patterns suggest at least two goals after the break.
- Thor concede 1.6 second-half goals on average (2.7 total - 1.1 first half).
- Breidablik score 1.6 second-half goals on average (2.5 total - 0.9 first half).
- Last H2H: 2 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance65%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Without specific corner stats, we rely on league norms and match context suggesting an open game with multiple corners.
- Corner data unavailable for both teams in recent matches.
- League average corners per game typically around 9-10 in Úrvalsdeild.
- Breidablik's attacking style likely generates corners; Thor's defensive pressure may concede them.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Breidablik's first-half performance is inconsistent; they lead at HT in only 33% of matches, and Thor's 60% trailing rate is offset by a low-scoring first-half pattern.

Head-to-Head

0W · 0D · 3W

L4-0BreidablikvThor AkureyriApr 27, 2026ÚRV

L0-1Thor AkureyrivBreidablikMar 14, 2024LEA

L1-2Thor AkureyrivBreidablikMar 6, 2022LEA

Breidablik unbeaten in 3 meetingsBreidablik: 2 clean sheets2.7 goals/game avg

League Table

Úrvalsdeild 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
12	Thor Akureyri	16	3	3	10	17-42	12	DWLDL
4	Breidablik	16	8	5	3	35-26	29	WDWWL

17pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Thor Akureyri

D0-0KA AkureyriJul 27ÚRV

W2-1Vikingur ReykjavikJul 18ÚRV

L1-6Fram ReykjavikJul 12ÚRV

D3-3KR ReykjavikJul 2ÚRV

L2-4Valur ReykjavikJun 28ÚRV

D1-1FH hafnarfjordurJun 21ÚRV

L1-4IBV VestmannaeyjarJun 14ÚRV

L1-3StjarnanMay 31ÚRV

L0-1KeflavikMay 22ÚRV

L1-2IA AkranesMay 17ÚRV

L0-6Vikingur ReykjavikMay 8ÚRV

L0-1KA AkureyriMay 2ÚRV

L0-4BreidablikApr 27ÚRV

W1-0Fram ReykjavikApr 23ÚRV

L2-5KR ReykjavikApr 17ÚRV

Breidablik

W1-0IBV VestmannaeyjarJul 27ÚRV

D0-0FH hafnarfjordurJul 20ÚRV

W2-1KeflavikJul 13ÚRV

W2-1IA AkranesJul 4ÚRV

W3-0Vikingur ReykjavikJun 28CUP

L1-4Vikingur ReykjavikJun 25ÚRV

W3-1KA AkureyriJun 21ÚRV

D4-4StjarnanJun 16ÚRV

W3-0ÆgirJun 12CUP

L3-4Fram ReykjavikMay 29ÚRV

W6-3KR ReykjavikMay 22ÚRV

L2-3Valur ReykjavikMay 17ÚRV

W2-1Throttur ReykjavikMay 13CUP

D3-3FH hafnarfjordurMay 8ÚRV

W2-1IBV VestmannaeyjarMay 3ÚRV

Squad & Injuries

Thor Akureyri

31 available

Attackers5

Midfielders15

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Breidablik

29 available

Attackers9

Midfielders8

Defenders8

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Breidablik

Draw or Breidablik

Over 3.5

Over 1.5

Result0 of 4 landed

Goals3 of 7 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Yes

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Thor Akureyri

Breidablik

Squad & Injuries

Thor Akureyri

Breidablik