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Predictions graded

FH Hafnarfjordur2Vikingur Reykjavik4

HT 1–2Sun 16 Aug 2026, 18:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–280%

Edges6–275%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Aug 2026, 02:33 · Europe/Bucharest

Víkingur Reykjavík are heavy favourites and should win, but the match winner odds are too short for value.

The best betting angles are 'No' on both teams to score and Víkingur clean sheet, both at 2.20, offering solid edges based on FH's scoring struggles and Víkingur's defensive record.

Context

Víkingur lost 0-3 to FC Thun on 6 August and 0-2 to Hapoel Beer Sheva on 29 July.
- Both matches were away from home, adding travel load.
- Víkingur's league match against IBV on 9 August ended 2-2, suggesting possible tiredness.
FH home record: 1W-6D-2L.
- Recent home draws: 1-1 vs KR Reykjavik, 0-0 vs Breidablik, 1-1 vs IBV, 1-1 vs Thor Akureyri.
- FH have kept three clean sheets in their last five home matches.
Last five league H2Hs: 5-0, 2-0, 2-2, 3-1, 3-0.
- Víkingur kept clean sheets in three of those five matches.
- FH have scored only 3 goals in the last five league H2Hs.
FH average 1.1 goals scored per match in the league.
- FH failed to score in 3 of last 5 H2Hs vs Víkingur.
- Víkingur concede only 0.9 goals per game on average.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The massive league position gap and recent H2H dominance strongly favor Vikingur Reykjavik.
- Vikingur Reykjavik are 1st with 45 points, FH Hafnarfjordur are 10th with 17 points (28-point gap).
- Vikingur have won 14 of 18 league matches; FH have won only 3.
- Vikingur have won 4 of the last 5 league H2Hs, scoring 15 goals to FH's 3.
- FH have only 1 home win in 9 home matches this season.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonVikingur ReykjavikEstimated chance68%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Vikingur's consistency and FH's poor home record make a Vikingur win or draw highly likely.
- Vikingur are unbeaten in 5 league H2Hs (4W, 1D).
- FH have drawn 8 of 18 league matches, but only 1 home win.
- Vikingur have lost only 1 league match all season.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Vikingur ReykjavikEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Vikingur's superior attack and FH's leaky defense support a multi-goal winning margin.
- Vikingur won 4 of last 5 H2Hs by 2+ goals.
- Vikingur's goal difference is +42; FH's is -10.
- Vikingur average 3.2 goals scored per game; FH concede 1.7 per game.
BetBugs · Asian HandicapwonVikingur Reykjavik -1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Vikingur are slightly more likely to lead at halftime, but the margin is small.
- Vikingur lead at halftime in 27% of matches; FH trail at halftime in 27%.
- Vikingur average 0.7 first-half goals; FH concede 0.7 first-half goals.
- FH average 0.7 first-half goals; Vikingur concede 0.5 first-half goals.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonVikingur ReykjavikEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Vikingur's dominance suggests they can lead at halftime and fulltime.
- Vikingur have won 14 of 18 matches, often leading at halftime.
- FH have lost 7 of 18 matches and trail at halftime in 27%.
- Vikingur won 4 of last 5 H2Hs, with 3 of those wins by 2+ goals.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonVikingur Reykjavik / Vikingur ReykjavikEstimated chance50%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Vikingur's high scoring rate and FH's defensive frailty point to multiple goals.
- Vikingur average 2.1 goals scored per match; FH concede 1.7 goals per match.
- Vikingur have scored 58 goals in 18 league matches (3.2 per game).
- Last 5 H2Hs: 5-0, 2-0, 2-2, 3-1, 3-0 (4 of 5 over 2.5).
- FH's last 5 matches: 3 of 5 had over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Vikingur's strong defense and FH's scoring struggles suggest at least one team may not score.
- Vikingur kept clean sheets in 3 of last 5 H2Hs.
- FH have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches against Vikingur.
- Vikingur concede only 0.9 goals per game on average in the league.
- FH average only 1.1 goals scored per match.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Vikingur's defensive record and FH's scoring difficulties make a Vikingur clean sheet plausible.
- Vikingur kept clean sheets in 3 of last 5 H2Hs.
- Vikingur have conceded only 16 goals in 18 league matches (0.9 per game).
- FH have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches against Vikingur.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostFH Hafnarfjordur not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate first-half scoring rates, but over 1.5 is slightly less likely than under.
- Vikingur average 0.7 first-half goals; FH average 0.7 first-half goals conceded.
- FH average 0.7 first-half goals; Vikingur average 0.5 first-half goals conceded.
- Combined first-half goal averages suggest around 1.2 goals per match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Vikingur's attacking strength and FH's defensive lapses tend to produce second-half goals.
- Vikingur score 2.1 goals per match overall, with many coming after halftime.
- FH concede 1.7 goals per match, often in the second half.
- Last 5 H2Hs: 4 of 5 had at least 2 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance58%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Limited corner data makes this a speculative pick, but Vikingur's attacking intent may push total corners up.
- Vikingur average 4 corners per match; FH's corner data is unavailable.
- Vikingur's attacking style likely produces corners, but FH's corner stats are missing.
- No reliable corner data for FH to estimate total corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
With limited card data, this is a coin-flip prediction based on typical match intensity.
- Vikingur average 2 yellow cards per match; FH's card data is unavailable.
- No red cards recorded for either team in recent matches.
- Match intensity may lead to cards, but data is insufficient.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 16.7% vs our estimate of ~12% leaves no value; FH's home form is poor and Vikingur are far superior.

Head-to-Head

0W · 2D · 3W

L5-0Vikingur ReykjavikvFH hafnarfjordurMay 22, 2026ÚRV

L2-0Vikingur ReykjavikvFH hafnarfjordurOct 5, 2025ÚRV

D2-2FH hafnarfjordurvVikingur ReykjavikAug 3, 2025ÚRV

L3-1Vikingur ReykjavikvFH hafnarfjordurMay 11, 2025ÚRV

D0-0FH hafnarfjordurvVikingur ReykjavikFeb 28, 2025LEA

Vikingur Reykjavik unbeaten in 5 meetingsVikingur Reykjavik: 3 clean sheets3 goals/game avg

League Table

Úrvalsdeild 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
10	FH Hafnarfjordur Relegation Playoffs	18	3	8	7	22-32	17	WDDDW
1	Vikingur Reykjavik Play-offs	18	14	3	1	58-16	45	DDWLW

28pt gap between teamsVikingur Reykjavik leads the leagueFH Hafnarfjordur in relegation zone

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