FH Hafnarfjordur5Stjarnan2

HT 4–0Sun 20 Sept 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions9–564%

Edges4–0100%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 Sep 2026, 00:19 · Europe/Bucharest

Stjarnan are the marginal favourite given their 1.9 goals-per-game output and seven-point table cushion, but FH's draw-heavy home record (5 draws in 11) and a head-to-head series with three draws in five make the home-or-draw cover the safer likely outcome.

BTTS Yes is the best-supported play, while Over 2.5 at 1.30 and Over 3.5 at 1.80 are avoid markets — the prices imply far more goals than FH's low-event home profile supports.

Context

Stjarnan are 7th in the 12-team Úrvalsdeild on 28 points from 22 games, while FH are 9th on 21 points. Both are listed in the relegation playoff places, with Stjarnan 0 points above the line and FH 7 points below it.
The table position gives both teams a reason to push for a win rather than settle for a draw. Stjarnan can move further clear of the bottom sides, while FH need points to close a 7-point gap to Stjarnan and the teams above them. With only 3 points separating 7th from 11th, the result shifts several teams at once.
- Stjarnan are 7th on 28 points from 22 games, with 8 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses.
- FH are 9th on 21 points from 22 games, with 4 wins, 9 draws and 9 losses.
- Both teams are listed under the relegation playoff places, with Stjarnan 0 points above the line and FH 7 points below it.
Stjarnan have scored 42 and conceded 50 in 22 league games, while FH have scored 27 and conceded 39. Stjarnan's matches have produced more goals at both ends.
Stjarnan's higher scoring and conceding averages suggest their games are more open, while FH's lower numbers point to tighter matches. That difference matters because FH have drawn 9 of 22 games, the most in the league, and a low-scoring match suits their record. Stjarnan's away record shows 19 scored and 26 conceded in 11 away games, so their away matches have also been high-scoring.
- Stjarnan average 1.9 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per league game this season.
- FH average 1.2 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per league game this season.
- FH have drawn 9 of 22 league games, the most draws in the division.
This is a second-round Besta deild karla lower-group fixture, with Stjarnan on 31 points and FH on 24 after 23 matches.
The seven-point gap gives the match a clear table consequence: an FH win cuts the deficit to four points, while a Stjarnan win extends their separation over the lower-group cluster. That framing shapes how both sides may approach the game, though the gap alone does not determine the result.
- KSÍ lists FH v Stjarnan at 16:00 on 20 September in the 2026 Besta deild karla lower group.
- The official table lists Stjarnan on 31 points and FH on 24 after 23 matches.
ConfirmedSources checked 20 Sep 2026, 00:18 · Europe/BucharestKSÍ: Besta deild karla 2026 lower groupwww.ksi.is · 19 Sep 2026
FH and Stjarnan have met five times since April 2025, with three draws and two wins for the home team in those fixtures. The most recent meeting was on 3 July 2026 at FH, finishing 2-2.
The recent head-to-head record shows no side has won by more than one goal in this run, and the two most recent meetings both ended level. That pattern suggests this match could be decided by small margins, though past results do not guarantee the same outcome. The 2-2 draw in July 2026 is the most recent direct evidence of how the teams match up.
- 3 July 2026: FH 2-2 Stjarnan in the Úrvalsdeild.
- 17 April 2026: Stjarnan 3-2 FH in the Úrvalsdeild.
- 21 September 2025: Stjarnan 0-0 FH in the Úrvalsdeild.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Lean

FH Hafnarfjordur or Draw

1.53fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 65%

0.0ppshort

FH's draw-heavy home profile (5 draws in 11) plus a H2H pattern of 3 draws in the last 5 makes the home-or-draw cover the safer side, but the price already reflects it.

1 St Half Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Lean

FH Hafnarfjordur or Draw

1.38fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 72%

0.0ppshort

FH rarely trail at half-time (13%) and concede just 0.4 first-half goals, but the 1.38 price leaves no cushion versus a 62% estimate.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Yes

1.30fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Both sides score regularly and the recent H2H series is high-scoring with both teams finding the net in nearly every meeting, though the price already fully reflects it.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Stjarnan's clearly superior scoring output and higher table position give them the edge, though FH's home draw-heavy profile (5 draws in 11) tempers confidence.
- Stjarnan average 1.9 goals scored vs FH's 1.2 over the last 15 matches
- Stjarnan sit 7th on 28 pts with 42 goals in 22 games; FH are 9th on 21 pts with 27 goals
- FH home record: 2W 5D 4L, 15 scored, 17 conceded in 11 home games
- Stjarnan away record: 4W 2D 5L, 19 scored, 26 conceded in 11 away games
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostStjarnanEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
FH's strong draw tendency at home plus a H2H pattern dominated by draws (3 of last 5) makes the home-or-draw side the safer cover.
- FH have drawn 9 of 22 league matches and 5 of 11 at home
- Last 5 H2H: 3 draws, 1 Stjarnan win, 1 FH win
- FH home games average 2.9 total goals (15 for, 17 against in 11)
- Stjarnan have lost 5 of 11 away matches
BetBugs · Double ChancewonFH Hafnarfjordur or DrawEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
FH's strong tendency to reach half-time level, combined with a cagey lower-group context, favours a drawn first half.
- FH half-time result was a draw in 9 of their last 15 matches
- Stjarnan half-time result was a draw in 6 of their last 15 matches
- FH average 0.7 first-half goals for and 0.4 against
- Stjarnan average 1.0 first-half goals for and 0.9 against
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Stjarnan's higher overall scoring rate and FH's second-half vulnerability give the visitors a marginal edge after the break.
- Stjarnan average 1.9 goals per match with 0.9 coming in the first half, implying late scoring threat
- FH conceded 4 goals in a single recent match vs Vikingur Reykjavik
- Stjarnan scored 3 second-half goals in the 4-2 win over Thor Akureyri
- FH have conceded late in multiple recent draws
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonStjarnanEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
FH's excellent first-half resilience (rarely trailing at the break) makes the home-or-draw half-time cover the value side.
- FH were level or ahead at half-time in 12 of their last 15 matches
- FH trailed at half-time in only 13% of matches
- Stjarnan trailed at half-time in 33% of matches
- FH average just 0.4 first-half goals conceded
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonFH Hafnarfjordur or DrawEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The H2H series is draw-heavy and Stjarnan carry the stronger recent form, making a draw-or-away HT/FT combination plausible.
- Last 5 H2H produced 3 draws and 1 Stjarnan win
- FH have drawn 9 of 22 league matches
- Stjarnan form WDWWL over last 5
- FH form WLWDL over last 5
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw or StjarnanEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Stjarnan's superior table position and scoring rate justify a small handicap, but FH's home draw tendency makes the cover risky.
- Stjarnan 7th on 28 pts vs FH 9th on 21 pts
- Stjarnan average 1.9 goals vs FH 1.2
- FH home record 2W 5D 4L
- Stjarnan away record 4W 2D 5L
BetBugs · Asian HandicaplostStjarnan -0.25Estimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
FH's narrow-margin profile and the tight H2H history make a one-goal cushion on the home side solid value.
- FH have lost by 2+ goals in only 2 of their last 15 matches
- FH home record shows 5 draws and 4 losses in 11
- Last 5 H2H: 3 draws, 1 one-goal FH win, 1 one-goal Stjarnan win
- Stjarnan's away losses include a 5-1 defeat at IA Akranes
BetBugs · Handicap ResultwonFH Hafnarfjordur +1Estimated chance65%

Goals5 of 6 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides score regularly and the recent H2H series is high-scoring with both teams finding the net in nearly every meeting.
- Stjarnan average 1.8 goals conceded across last 15 matches
- FH average 0.9 conceded but have kept only 4 clean sheets in last 15
- Last 5 H2H produced BTTS in 4 of 5 meetings (2-2, 3-2, 0-0, 1-1, 2-1)
- Stjarnan scored in 13 of their last 15 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Stjarnan's high-event matches and their leaky away defence push the total up, though FH's low-scoring home profile caps the ceiling.
- Stjarnan's last 15 matches average 3.7 combined goals (1.9 for, 1.8 against)
- FH's last 15 average 2.1 combined goals (1.2 for, 0.9 against)
- Last 5 H2H totals: 4, 5, 0, 2, 3 goals
- Stjarnan away games average 4.1 combined goals (19 for, 26 against in 11)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams score meaningful first-half goals but FH's low first-half concession rate makes an early multi-goal half uncertain.
- Stjarnan average 1.0 first-half goals scored and 0.9 conceded over last 15
- FH average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.4 conceded over last 15
- Stjarnan led at half-time in 27% of matches, trailed in 33%
- FH led at half-time in 33% of matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Stjarnan's consistent scoring output makes an FH clean sheet unlikely despite FH's decent defensive average.
- Stjarnan scored in 13 of their last 15 matches
- Stjarnan average 1.9 goals per match
- FH kept only 4 clean sheets in their last 15
- Stjarnan scored 2 goals in the most recent H2H meeting
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonStjarnan to scoreEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
FH's modest scoring rate and Stjarnan's occasional clean sheets make a low home goal total a reasonable lean.
- FH average 1.2 goals per match over last 15
- FH scored 1 or fewer in 9 of their last 15 matches
- FH home record shows 15 goals in 11 home games (1.36 per game)
- Stjarnan concede 1.8 per match but have kept clean sheets in 3 of last 15
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostFH Hafnarfjordur under 1.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
FH's regular scoring output makes a Stjarnan win-to-nil outcome unlikely.
- FH scored in 11 of their last 15 matches
- FH average 1.2 goals per match
- Stjarnan kept only 3 clean sheets in their last 15
- FH scored 2 goals in the most recent H2H meeting
BetBugs · Away Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance78%