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IBV VestmannaeyjarFH Hafnarfjordur

Fri 16 Oct 2026, 17:0016 Oct, 17:00

15Probabilities4Priced6Edges85%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight leanNear coin-flip

Quick Take

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Context last updated 14 Oct 2026, 23:43 · Europe/Bucharest

FH arrive with 16 goals from their last six matches, but have won only two of 11 away league games, and four of the last five meetings with IBV ended level.

FH are the likelier winners, and several reviewed prices offer value: Under 2.5 goals at 2.8, both teams to score No at 2.9, FH to draw or win at 1.5, FH ahead at half-time at 2.8 and FH to win at 2.4.

Context

Both clubs are in the bottom six with three points between them, and FH's 16 goals in six matches against IBV's run of four blanks in six gives the result real weight.

Because the league ends with the bottom six playing a mini-league, the closing rounds pair survival rivals directly, so this fixture carries relegation weight for both clubs rather than dead-rubber status. FH beat Stjarnan 5-2 on 20 September in a result described locally as a big step towards staying up, and their later 5-3 win at Valur points to a side pulling clear of danger. Survival incentives can change how teams manage risk and rotation when a single result swings the table. The relegation-group status is well corroborated for FH but inferred for IBV from the shared round listing and fixtures rather than a published table.
- The 10 October 2026 Besta deild round was listed as 'Nedrykksgruppe', with Valur-FH and Stjarnan-KA among its fixtures.
- IBV's 10 October fixture at Þór Akureyri appeared in the same round as Valur-FH.
- Before that round, FH were described as needing '2-3 more points' for safety in the group.
- FH were said on 20 September to have taken 'a big step' towards staying in the Besta deild with a 5-2 win over Stjarnan.
ReportedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 23:40 · Europe/Bucharest
FH have not beaten IBV in the last five meetings, and both 2026 league fixtures finished 1-1. Level results have been the norm even as the venue alternates, which tempers confidence in an away win whatever FH's recent scoring suggests. IBV's 2-1 home win in May 2025 is the only decisive result in that sequence.
- 28 Jun 2026: FH 1-1 IBV (Úrvalsdeild)
- 12 Apr 2026: IBV 1-1 FH (Úrvalsdeild)
- 12 Feb 2026: FH 0-0 IBV (League Cup)
- 24 Aug 2025: FH 1-1 IBV (Úrvalsdeild)
IBV have drawn blanks in four of their last six league matches and own one clean sheet across the 15-match window, so both their scoring and shutout routes look thin. FH's 16 goals in six matches highlight the pressure on the home side. IBV have still scored in 10 of those 15 matches, so one goal cannot be dismissed.
- 15 tracked competitive matches, 21 Jun–10 Oct 2026: 2 wins, 5 draws, 8 defeats
- 10 goals scored and 14 conceded across those 15 matches
- One clean sheet in 15 matches
- Both teams scored in 9 of the 15 matches
FH have protected the first half well in this away sample, conceding nothing before the break across five matches. IBV's own first-half output is limited, so an early home lead looks unlikely. Five matches is a small sample, and this describes a pattern rather than a guarantee of another quiet opening period.
- Five tracked away matches from 26 July to 10 October 2026: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat
- No first-half goals conceded across those five matches
- Two clean sheets in the five away matches

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result5 outcomes · top 79%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.40
The read
FH arrive on a strong scoring run while IBV have scored twice in six matches, so the away side carries the larger share.
- FH have won four of their last six (W W W L W D), scoring 16 goals in that run
- IBV have scored twice in their last six matches and taken two points from a possible 18
- IBV home league record: 3 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats from 11
- FH away league record: 2 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats from 11
BetBugs · Match WinnerFH HafnarfjordurMarket price2.40Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.80
The read
FH's strong first-half scoring and IBV's slow starts make an away interval lead the most likely single outcome.
- FH average 1.0 first-half goals and concede 0.4 per game
- IBV average 0.33 first-half goals and concede 0.93
- FH led at half-time in four of their last six matches
- FH conceded no first-half goals in five away matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerFH HafnarfjordurMarket price2.80Estimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is closely matched between the sides, making a level second period the likeliest outcome.
- IBV average 0.67 second-half goals and 0.73 conceded
- FH average 0.73 second-half goals and 0.73 conceded
- IBV's last six matches produced 5 second-half goals in total
- FH's last six second halves split 6 goals for and 7 against
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerDrawEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
FH arrive on a strong scoring run while IBV have scored twice in six matches, so the away side carries the larger share. This fixture has repeatedly finished level and both sides have high draw counts in the league table.
- FH have won four of their last six (W W W L W D), scoring 16 goals in that run
- IBV have scored twice in their last six matches and taken two points from a possible 18
- Four of the last five meetings ended level, including three 1-1 scorelines
- FH have drawn nine of 22 league matches and four of 11 away
BetBugs · Double ChanceDraw or FH HafnarfjordurMarket price1.50Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
FH's strong first-half scoring and IBV's slow starts make an away interval lead the most likely single outcome. IBV rarely lead at the break and their low first-half output keeps a level interval likely.
- FH average 1.0 first-half goals and concede 0.4 per game
- IBV average 0.33 first-half goals and concede 0.93
- IBV average 0.29 first-half goals at home
- IBV average 0.86 first-half goals conceded at home
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfDraw or FH HafnarfjordurEstimated chance79%

Goals10 outcomes · top 85%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
FH's recent scoring burst and IBV's concession rate point to a total around the line.
- FH have scored 16 goals in their last six matches, with totals of 8, 7 and 3 goals in three of them
- IBV concede 1.67 goals per game across fifteen matches
- FH score 1.73 per game across fifteen matches
- Four of FH's last six matches went over 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderOver 2.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The head-to-head pattern and both teams' scoring records make a mutual scoreline the more likely outcome.
- Both teams scored in 9 of FH's 15 matches and 5 of IBV's 7 home matches
- Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings
- FH kept clean sheets in 5 of 15 matches overall
- IBV kept one clean sheet in 15 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
IBV have been held to one goal or fewer in most recent matches, making a two-goal tally unlikely.
- IBV scored at most one goal in five of their last six matches
- IBV home scoring average is 1.14 per game
- IBV scored 6 goals across 7 tracked home matches
- IBV scored 10 goals in 15 matches overall
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalIBV Vestmannaeyjar under 1.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
FH's away scoring has been limited relative to their overall output, favouring fewer than two away goals.
- FH away split: 3 goals scored in 5 matches
- FH scored 12 goals in 15 matches overall
- FH failed to score in one of their last six matches
- IBV kept one clean sheet in seven home matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalFH Hafnarfjordur under 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
IBV's single clean sheet in fifteen matches makes it very likely FH score.
- IBV kept 1 clean sheet in 15 matches
- FH scored in 5 of their last 6 matches
- FH average 1.73 goals per game
- IBV conceded in 14 of 15 matches
BetBugs · Team to ScoreFH Hafnarfjordur to scoreEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
IBV score in most of their home matches, so FH keeping a clean sheet is the less likely outcome.
- IBV scored in 10 of 15 matches
- IBV scored in 5 of 7 home matches
- FH kept 5 clean sheets in 15 matches
- FH kept 2 clean sheets in 5 away matches
BetBugs · Team to ScoreIBV Vestmannaeyjar to scoreEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
IBV score in most home matches, so an away win without conceding is improbable.
- IBV scored in 10 of 15 matches and 5 of 7 at home
- FH kept 2 clean sheets in 5 away matches
- FH kept 5 clean sheets in 15 matches
- The last two meetings were both 1-1
BetBugs · Away Win to NilNoEstimated chance84%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
FH's first-half scoring rate makes at least one goal before the break the more likely outcome.
- FH average 0.8 first-half goals away and 1.0 overall
- IBV average 0.86 first-half goals conceded at home
- IBV average 0.29 first-half goals at home
- FH's last six first halves produced goals in five of them
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
IBV's low first-half scoring makes it unlikely that both teams find the net before the interval.
- IBV average 0.33 first-half goals and 0.29 at home
- FH conceded no first-half goals in five away matches
- FH average 0.4 first-half goals conceded overall
- IBV's last six first halves included four without a goal
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfNoMarket price1.29Estimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
IBV's recent second halves have been quiet, keeping the post-break total modest.
- IBV's last six matches produced 5 second-half goals in total
- IBV average 0.67 second-half goals and 0.73 conceded
- IBV's last six matches had four goalless second halves
- FH average 0.73 second-half goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfUnder 1.5Estimated chance52%