Serie AFull time

Predictions graded

Atletico Mineiro3Mirassol1

HT 1–1Sat 16 May 2026, 21:30 Predictions graded

Predictions4–450%

Edges1–325%

PossPossession 49%–51%ShotsShots 15–7On targetOn target 6–3CornersCorners 5–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 May 2026, 19:24 · Europe/Bucharest

Atletico Mineiro's home resilience (86% unbeaten) makes a double chance bet safe but offers no value at 1.30.

The top actionable edge is under 9.5 corners at 2.00 (+10-point edge), backed by both teams' low corner averages. A first-half draw at 2.10 (+7-point edge) is also appealing given both sides' tendency to start cautiously.

Context

Sampaoli was dismissed on 12 Feb 2026 after a run of five draws and two wins in the Campeonato Mineiro.
- The 8 Mar 2026 state-final loss to Cruzeiro triggered a mass brawl and 23 retrospective red cards.
- Atletico have won only one of their last five overall (1W-2D-2L) under Dominguez.
Hulk is listed as questionable due to inactivity.
- Bernard is questionable with an unspecified injury.
- Atletico have scored only five goals in their last five matches.
Mirassol's away record is 1W-1D-4L, with six goals scored and nine conceded.
- They have failed to win in five of their last six away trips across all competitions.
- Their only away win came against Internacional on 19 Apr 2026.
The H2H record is 1-0-1 in Atletico's favor after a 2-2 draw away and a 1-0 home win.
- Mirassol failed to score in the only previous visit to Atletico.
- The sample size is small, but Atletico have kept Mirassol scoreless at home.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Atletico's solid home form (only 1 loss) and H2H edge give them a moderate advantage, but recent overall form is poor, capping confidence.
- Atletico Mineiro home record: 3W-3D-1L (7 matches, 10 goals for, 11 against)
- Mirassol away record: 1W-1D-4L (6 matches, 6 goals for, 9 against)
- H2H: Atletico unbeaten in 2 meetings (1W-1D), including 1-0 home win
- Atletico last 5 overall: 1W-2D-2L; Mirassol last 5 overall: 3W-1D-1L
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAtletico MineiroEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Atletico's strong home resilience and Mirassol's poor away form make a home win or draw highly likely.
- Atletico Mineiro home record: 3W-3D-1L (86% unbeaten at home)
- Mirassol away record: 1W-1D-4L (83% failed to win away)
- H2H: Atletico unbeaten in 2 meetings (1W-1D)
BetBugs · Double ChancewonAtletico Mineiro or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams often go into halftime level, with Mirassol showing a high draw rate in recent first halves.
- Atletico Mineiro home first-half results: led at HT in 47% of last 15, trailed in 40%
- Mirassol away first-half results: led at HT in 27% of last 15, trailed in 20%
- H2H: first half results: 1-0 Atletico and 1-1 draw
- Atletico last 5 overall: 2W-0D-3L at HT; Mirassol last 5: 2W-2D-1L at HT
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at halftime followed by an Atletico win is plausible given home strength, but historical frequency is low.
- Atletico Mineiro home: 3 of 7 matches were level at HT, and they won 2 of those in second half
- Mirassol away: 2 of 6 matches were level at HT, and they lost both in second half
- H2H: 1-0 home win for Atletico after leading 1-0 at HT; no draw/win pattern
- Atletico last 5 overall: 0 draw/win; Mirassol last 5: 0 draw/loss
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/Atletico MineiroEstimated chance25%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches and H2H history trend toward low-scoring affairs, supporting under 2.5 goals.
- Atletico Mineiro home matches: 7 games, avg total goals 3.0, but 4 of 7 had under 2.5
- Mirassol away matches: 6 games, avg total goals 2.5, 4 of 6 had under 2.5
- H2H: 2 meetings, both under 2.5 (2-2, 1-0)
- Atletico last 5 overall: 3 of 5 under 2.5; Mirassol last 5 overall: 3 of 5 under 2.5
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mirassol's away scoring struggles and Atletico's occasional defensive solidity at home suggest at least one team may blank.
- Atletico Mineiro home: clean sheet in 2 of 7 (29%), but Mirassol away failed to score in 2 of 6 (33%)
- Mirassol away: scored in 4 of 6, but only 1 goal in 3 of those
- H2H: Mirassol failed to score in 1 of 2 meetings (away 0-1 loss)
- Atletico last 5 overall: 2 clean sheets; Mirassol last 5 overall: 2 clean sheets
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average low first-half scoring, and recent matches show a strong trend toward cautious starts.
- Atletico Mineiro home first-half goals: avg 0.7 for, 0.6 against (last 15 matches)
- Mirassol away first-half goals: avg 0.6 for, 0.5 against (last 15 matches)
- H2H: first half goals in 2 meetings: 1-0 and 1-1 (both under 1.5 at half)
- Atletico last 5 overall: 3 of 5 had under 1.5 first-half goals; Mirassol last 5: 4 of 5 under 1.5
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring tends to be slightly higher, but evidence is mixed; low confidence due to conflicting H2H and recent form.
- Atletico Mineiro home second-half goals: avg 1.3 total (0.5 for, 0.8 against) in last 15
- Mirassol away second-half goals: avg 1.1 total (0.5 for, 0.6 against) in last 15
- H2H: second half goals in 2 meetings: 1 and 0 (avg 0.5)
- Atletico last 5 overall: 3 of 5 had over 1.5 second-half goals; Mirassol last 5: 2 of 5 over 1.5
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around 9-10 total corners, and recent matches show a trend toward lower corner counts.
- Atletico Mineiro home corners: avg 4.9 for, opponent 4.0 against (last 15 matches)
- Mirassol away corners: avg 5.4 for, opponent 5.0 against (last 15 matches)
- H2H: corner counts in 2 meetings: 6-4 and 5-8 (total 9 and 13, avg 11)
- Atletico last 5 overall: avg total corners 9.2; Mirassol last 5: avg total corners 9.6
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams consistently see matches with over 4.5 cards, driven by Mirassol's high away card count.
- Atletico Mineiro home yellow cards: avg 1.9, opponent 2.0 (last 15 matches)
- Mirassol away yellow cards: avg 3.0, opponent 2.5 (last 15 matches)
- H2H: card data unavailable, but both teams average over 4.5 total cards in recent matches
- Atletico last 5 overall: avg total cards 4.8; Mirassol last 5: avg total cards 5.2
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

0W · 1D · 1W

L1-0Atletico-MGvMirassolSep 28, 2025SA

D2-2MirassolvAtletico-MGApr 26, 2025SA

2.5 goals/game avg

League Table

Serie A 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
13	Atletico Mineiro	15	5	3	7	18-21	18	DWLLL
18	Mirassol Relegation - Serie B	14	3	4	7	16-20	13	DWLWL

5pt gap between teamsMirassol in relegation zone

Recent Form

Atletico Mineiro

D1-1BotafogoMay 10SA

D2-2JuventudMay 5CON

W3-1CruzeiroMay 3SA

L0-1CiencianoApr 30CON

L0-4FlamengoApr 26SA

W2-1CearaApr 23COP

L0-2CoritibaApr 19SA

W2-1JuventudApr 16CON

L0-1SantosApr 11SA

L1-2Puerto CabelloApr 9CON

W2-1Atletico ParanaenseApr 5SA

W4-0Chapecoense-scApr 2SA

L0-1FluminenseMar 21SA

W1-0Sao PauloMar 18SA

L0-2VitoriaMar 14SA

Mirassol

W2-1RB BragantinoMay 13COP

D1-1Chapecoense-scMay 10SA

W2-0LDU de QuitoMay 7CON

W2-1CorinthiansMay 3SA

W2-0Always ReadyApr 29CON

L0-1Sao PauloApr 26SA

D1-1RB BragantinoApr 23COP

W2-1InternacionalApr 19SA

L0-2LDU de QuitoApr 15CON

L1-2BahiaApr 11SA

W1-0LanusApr 8CON

L0-1RB BragantinoApr 5SA

L2-3BotafogoApr 1SA

L0-1VitoriaMar 22SA

L0-1CoritibaMar 18SA

Squad & Injuries

Atletico Mineiro

10 out

Attackers2/8

×#7

Midfielders8/17

×#38

×#20

×#30

×#11

×#38

×#20

×#30

×#11

Defenders12

Goalkeeper5

#38 Indio — Knee Injury

#20 Patrick Silva — Knee Injury

#30 Victor Hugo — Inactive

#11 Bernard — Injury

#7 Hulk — Inactive

#38 Indio — Knee Injury

#20 Patrick Silva — Knee Injury

#30 Victor Hugo — Inactive

#11 Bernard — Injury

#7 Hulk — Inactive

Mirassol

6 out

Attackers4/8

×#11

×#99

×#11

×#99

Midfielders11

Defenders2/12

×#32

Goalkeeper4

#11 Negueba — Knee Injury

#99 Andre Luis — Injury

#32 Igor Formiga — Injury

#11 Negueba — Knee Injury

#99 Andre Luis — Injury

#32 Igor Formiga — Injury

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Under 2.5

Under 9.5

Atletico Mineiro or Draw

Under 1.5

Over 4.5

Result3 of 3 landed

Goals1 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Atletico Mineiro

Mirassol

Squad & Injuries

Atletico Mineiro

Mirassol