America MG1Cuiaba MT0

HT 0–0Mon 26 Oct 2026, 22:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–275%

Edges6–186%

PossPossession 44%–56%ShotsShots 6–24On targetOn target 2–6CornersCorners 2–12

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Oct 2026, 03:12 · Europe/Bucharest

América-MG, 19th in Serie B, have scored once in their last six matches, while Cuiabá have drawn 14 of 34 league games — one goal may settle this.

The low-goal prices carry the edge: under 2.5 goals at 1.7 and under 1.5 first-half goals at 1.35. Cuiabá to win or draw at 1.3 asks more than their two goals in seven away matches in this window support.

Context

Cuiabá's away record of 4 wins, 7 draws and 6 defeats makes them hard to beat but rarely dominant travellers. That profile puts the draw at the centre of this fixture and keeps a single goal decisive. América's home record of 4 wins, 3 draws and 10 defeats cuts the other way: they are the side used to losing in front of their own crowd.
- Serie B 2026: Cuiabá 34 played, 11 wins, 14 draws, 9 defeats, 32 scored, 27 conceded; away 17 played, 4 wins, 7 draws, 6 defeats, 13 scored, 17 conceded.
- Serie B 2026: América-MG 34 played, 5 wins, 5 draws, 24 defeats, 22 scored, 54 conceded; home 17 played, 4 wins, 3 draws, 10 defeats, 13 scored, 22 conceded.
Cuiabá won the July meeting by a single goal. América have not scored more than once in any of their last six matches, and Cuiabá's away totals this season are modest, so a repeat of that tight scoreline would be no surprise. One meeting is a small sample rather than a pattern.
- 2 July 2026: Cuiabá 1-0 América Mineiro in Serie B, the most recent head-to-head meeting.
The five defeats before that win were all by 0-1 or 0-2, so the problem was scoring rather than being overrun. Against Operário the shot count was their most assertive of the run, 22 against 12, and it still produced a single goal. That is the relevant detail for a side averaging 0.6 goals per game across the 15-match window.
- 17 October 2026: América-MG 1-0 Operário-PR in Serie B, with 22 shots, 6 on target and 6 corners for América.
It was the clearest picture of Cuiabá's away problem: plenty of volume, no finish. Their scoring on the road this season has been thin, so the result matters more than the shot count. América's home defence has leaked chances all year, which means the visitors may well get openings again — converting them is the open question.
- 20 October 2026: Londrina 1-0 Cuiabá in Serie B; Cuiabá recorded 25 shots, 7 on target and 8 corners.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Cuiaba sit far higher in the table and draw a lot on the road, while America lose the majority of their home league games.
- League table: Cuiaba 13th with 47 points, America 19th with 20 points and 24 defeats in 34.
- Cuiaba away league record: 4 wins, 7 draws, 6 losses, 17 conceded in 17.
- America home league record: 4 wins, 3 draws, 10 losses, 13 scored and 22 conceded.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or Cuiaba MTEstimated chance56%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Both sides produce very few goals in the split that matters here, so a match needing three goals to beat this line looks unlikely.
- America MG home matches: 5 goals scored, 5 conceded in 8 (1.25 total goals per game).
- Cuiaba MT away matches: 2 scored, 7 conceded in 7 (1.29 total goals per game).
- America MG have scored once in their last six matches; Cuiaba have been involved in three 0-0/1-0 type games in the same span.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
At least one of these attacks is very likely to be blanked, with America's home scoring rate under one goal per game and Cuiaba almost toothless on the road.
- America MG: only 4 of 15 tracked matches had both teams scoring; 2 of 8 at home.
- Cuiaba MT scored 2 goals across 7 away matches.
- America MG failed to score in five of their last six matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance64%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
America's attack is the weakest part of a poor season and Cuiaba's defence is the strongest part of theirs, so two home goals would be a surprise.
- America MG score 0.875 goals per home match (5 in 8) and 0.6 overall (7 in 15).
- America MG have one goal in their last six matches.
- Cuiaba MT concede 0.87 per game overall with five clean sheets in 15.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonAmerica MG under 1.5Estimated chance84%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.35
The read
Neither team scores early with any regularity, and America in particular almost never finds the net before the break.
- America MG first half: 0.13 goals for and 0.53 against per game.
- Cuiaba MT first half: 0.4 for and 0.4 against per game; 0.25 for in away matches.
- America's last six first halves: 0-0, 0-0, 0-1, 0-1, 0-0, 0-1.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance88%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.62
The read
Both teams sit near or above eleven total corners per match, comfortably clear of the line.
- America MG matches average 5.6 own corners plus 6.4 conceded (12.0 per game).
- Cuiaba MT matches average 6.2 own plus 4.93 conceded (11.1 per game).
- Venue splits: America home 5.25/5.75, Cuiaba away 6.0/5.875.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Cuiaba are a persistent corner-winning side and America concede a healthy number at home, so five away corners is a fair baseline.
- Cuiaba MT take 6.2 corners per game overall and 6.0 in away matches.
- America MG concede 6.4 corners per game, 5.75 at home.
- Cuiaba took 8 and 7 corners in two of their three away matches in the recent list.
BetBugs · Away CornerswonCuiaba MT over 4.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Season and recent card counts cluster around four per game, which sits just above this line.
- America MG matches average 1.87 own yellows plus 1.87 for opponents.
- Cuiaba MT matches average 1.6 own plus 1.73 for opponents.
- America's recent card totals: 7, 5, 5, 3, 4, 6; Cuiaba's: 1, 3, 5, 6, 6, 3.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance57%

Prediction history

America MG: 6/8 recent goals projections matched

6 of 8 comparable goals projections involving America MG matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for America MG8 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

27 Jul·Serie B