Mjallby0Hammarby2

HT 0–0Sun 25 Oct 2026, 15:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–186%

Edges6–0100%

PossPossession 34%–66%ShotsShots 5–19On targetOn target 2–3CornersCorners 5–8

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 01:42 · Europe/Bucharest

Third-placed Hammarby visit a Mjallby side with only three home league wins all season, yet Mjallby have won three of the last five meetings.

Hammarby look the likelier winners and should at least avoid defeat, but 1.13 for Hammarby to win or draw demands more than the form justifies. Fewer than four goals at 1.57, fewer than two first-half goals at 1.55, Hammarby to take six or more corners at 1.57 and ten or more total corners at 1.70 all carry a case.

Context

It was Mjallby's third win in the last five meetings; Hammarby's two victories in that run both finished 3-0.
Hammarby had won the league meeting 3-0 five weeks earlier, so the recent series has swung hard in both directions. Four of the last five meetings finished with three goals or fewer, which is the tighter pattern in the record.
- Svenska Cupen, 14 May 2026: Mjallby AIF 2-1 Hammarby FF
- Mjallby won by a single goal in a three-goal game
Their away counts between 30 August and 18 October 2026 read 11 at Halmstad, 8 at Orgryte, 7 at AIK and 6 at Degerfors.
Mjallby concede 5.0 corners per home match across their recent seven-match home split, so Hammarby's travelling corner habit has a base. Mjallby's own 4.43 home corners are the variable: a low home count keeps the overall figure modest, a higher one lifts it.
- 7.25 corners per away match across 8 away matches (26 Jul–18 Oct 2026)
- 3.25 corners conceded per away match in those 8 matches
- Recent away counts of 11 at Halmstad (18 Oct 2026), 8 at Orgryte (6 Sep 2026) and 7 at AIK (30 Aug 2026)
Their away league split shows five clean sheets in nine away matches, with 0.89 goals conceded per game on the road.
Mjallby average 0.73 goals across their last 15 competitive matches and 12 goals in 12 home league games, so clear chances may be scarce. Their 2-1 cup win in May is the reminder that one goal can still decide it.
- 7 clean sheets in 14 competitive matches (26 Jul–18 Oct 2026)
- 0.79 goals conceded per match across those 14 matches
- 2.54 shots on target conceded per match across 13 matches
All eight goals Mjallby scored in that home split arrived after half-time, at 1.14 per match.
Mjallby's home scoring has come almost entirely after the interval in this run, which shapes how the first hour may look. Hammarby have conceded 0.22 first-half goals per away match across nine away games, so an early breakthrough is not the established pattern.
- 0 first-half goals in 7 home matches (15 Aug–15 Oct 2026)
- 8 goals scored in that split, all after half-time (1.14 per home match)
- 0.57 first-half goals conceded per home match

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.13
The read
Hammarby are clearly the stronger side and Mjallby's home record is poor, so a draw or away win is well supported.
- Hammarby are 3rd on 46 points; Mjallby are 12th on 23.
- Hammarby away record 5W-3D-4L; Mjallby home record 3W-2D-7L.
- Hammarby recent form WLWWD; Mjallby LDLDD.
- Mjallby list attacking absentees Dalsgaard and Stavitski plus Tidstrand; Hammarby's listed absence is Hedlof.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or HammarbyEstimated chance72%

Goals3 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.05
The read
Mjallby's home scoring is modest and attacking absences lower their chance of reaching three goals.
- Mjallby have scored 12 goals in 12 home league games this season (1.0 per match).
- In the recent home split they average 1.14 goals per home match.
- Mjallby are without attacking options Dalsgaard and Stavitski.
- Hammarby have kept 7 clean sheets in 14 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonMjallby under 2.5Estimated chance81%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.57
The read
Both the recent scoring averages and the H2H pattern point more to a controlled game than a high-scoring one.
- Mjallby average 0.73 goals scored in their recent 15 competitive matches.
- Hammarby average 1.57 scored and 0.79 conceded in 14 competitive matches.
- Four of the last five H2H meetings finished under 3.5 goals.
- Hammarby have kept 7 clean sheets in 14 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 3.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Mjallby rarely score before half-time and Hammarby's away first halves have been low-conceding, so under 1.5 first-half goals is favoured.
- Mjallby average 0.00 first-half goals at home in 7 recent home matches.
- Mjallby overall average 0.13 first-half goals in 15 competitive matches.
- Hammarby away average 0.22 first-half goals against in 9 away matches.
- Hammarby average 0.78 first-half goals away.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance77%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.57
The read
Hammarby generate a high and consistent corner volume, making over 5.5 away corners well supported.
- Hammarby average 7.25 corners away and 7.62 overall.
- Their recent away corner counts include 11 at Halmstad, 8 at Orgryte and 6 at Degerfors.
- Mjallby concede 5.0 corners per home match in the recent split.
BetBugs · Away CornerswonHammarby over 5.5Estimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Both teams' corner data add up above the line, with Hammarby especially likely to create set pieces.
- Mjallby average 4.43 home corners; Hammarby average 7.25 away corners.
- That combined home/away average is about 11.7 corners per match.
- Hammarby's recent away corner counts were 11, 6, 8 and 7.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hammarby's high shot volume plus Mjallby's moderate output puts the total near or above the line.
- Mjallby average 12.55 shots per match; Hammarby average 21.36.
- Their home/away split averages are 12.67 and 22.29, a combined 34.96.
- Hammarby's recent shot counts include 24 at Halmstad, 26 at Orgryte and 32 at AIK.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostOver 33.5Estimated chance55%