Mjallby1IFK Gothenburg4

HT 0–0Mon 7 Sept 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions9–469%

Edges4–267%

PossPossession 40%–60%ShotsShots 8–20On targetOn target 1–11CornersCorners 4–10

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 2 Sep 2026, 06:25 · Europe/Bucharest

No significant betting edges exist in this match.

The Over 2.5 goals and BTTS markets are fairly priced or slightly overpriced relative to our model. Avoid the first-half Over 0.5 goals at 1.25, as the implied 80% probability far exceeds our 65% estimate.

Context

Mjallby sit 12th in the Allsvenskan with 20 points from 17 matches, four points above the relegation playoff spot.
Their recent form is concerning: they have lost four of their last five matches, including a 4-0 defeat to Djurgardens IF on 31 August and a 1-0 loss to IF Elfsborg on 8 August. They have scored only one goal in their last three league matches, which suggests they may struggle to create chances against IFK Gothenburg.
- Lost 4-0 to Djurgardens IF on 31 August 2026.
- Lost 1-0 to IF Elfsborg on 8 August 2026.
- Scored only one goal in their last three league matches.
IFK Gothenburg are 11th in the Allsvenskan with 23 points from 19 matches, seven points above the relegation playoff spot.
Their away record is poor: they have won only two of nine away matches and lost five, conceding 27 goals. This includes a 3-0 defeat to Degerfors IF on 16 August and a 4-1 loss to Sirius on 26 July. Mjallby may find opportunities to score against a defence that has struggled away from home.
- Away record: 2 wins, 2 draws, 5 losses in 9 matches.
- Conceded 27 goals in away matches.
- Lost 3-0 to Degerfors IF on 16 August 2026.
The teams have met five times in the Allsvenskan since 2024, with Mjallby winning three and drawing one.
In the last two meetings at Mjallby's home ground, Mjallby won 1-0 on 4 May 2025 and 1-0 on 10 November 2024. This suggests Mjallby can be difficult to beat at home against IFK Gothenburg, though the most recent overall meeting ended 1-1 on 25 May 2026.
- Mjallby beat IFK Gothenburg 1-0 at home on 4 May 2025.
- Mjallby beat IFK Gothenburg 1-0 at home on 10 November 2024.
- The most recent meeting ended 1-1 on 25 May 2026.
Mjällby host IFK Göteborg on 7 September after playing Djurgården on 3 September.
The four-day gap between competitive fixtures can affect recovery and rotation for the home side. Mjällby may need to manage minutes or adjust preparation, though the exact selection impact is not specified.
- Allsvenskan schedule Mjällby AIF-Djurgården for Thursday 3 September at 19:00.
- The same official schedule lists Mjällby AIF-IFK Göteborg for Monday 7 September at 19:00.
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Sep 2026, 06:23 · Europe/BucharestAllsvenskan fixture schedule for rounds 18-23allsvenskan.se · 27 May 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.70fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 58.8%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' recent league matches average over 3.0 total goals and both defenses concede heavily, supporting Over 2.5.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.67fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 59.9%

0.0ppshort

Both sides have scored and conceded in most recent league matches, but the odds price BTTS slightly above our estimate.

Team to ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Mjallby to score

1.67fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 59.9%

0.0ppshort

IFK Gothenburg's away defensive record is poor, but Mjallby's scoring has been inconsistent, making the odds slightly unfavorable.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have inconsistent form and similar weaknesses, making a draw a plausible outcome.
- Mjallby home record this season: 3W-1D-4L; IFK Gothenburg away record: 2W-2D-5L.
- Mjallby's last 5 form: LWLLD; IFK Gothenburg's last 5 form: WDLWW.
- H2H last 5 meetings: 2 draws, 2 Mjallby wins, 1 IFK Gothenburg win.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance32%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Mjallby's home advantage and IFK Gothenburg's poor away form support the home side avoiding defeat.
- Mjallby have lost only 4 of 8 home matches this season (3W-1D-4L).
- IFK Gothenburg have won only 2 of 9 away matches (2W-2D-5L).
- Mjallby won 2 of the last 3 home H2H meetings against IFK Gothenburg.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostMjallby or DrawEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams often go into the break level, making a first-half draw the most likely outcome.
- Mjallby led at half-time in only 13% of recent matches; trailed in 33%.
- IFK Gothenburg led at half-time in 27% of recent matches; trailed in 40%.
- Both teams have a high frequency of drawing at half-time in recent matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at both half-time and full-time is a low-probability but plausible outcome given both teams' tendencies.
- Mjallby's last 5 matches: 2 draws at half-time and 1 draw at full-time.
- IFK Gothenburg's last 5 matches: 3 draws at half-time and 1 draw at full-time.
- H2H last 5 meetings: 2 draws overall, with 1 draw at half-time.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance18%

Goals5 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams show high-scoring recent league games and leaky defenses, supporting over 2.5 goals.
- Mjallby's last 5 Allsvenskan matches averaged 3.4 total goals (4-3, 0-1, 1-2, 0-0, 4-4).
- IFK Gothenburg's last 5 Allsvenskan matches averaged 3.0 total goals (1-0, 1-1, 0-3, 3-2, 2-0).
- Mjallby conceded 2.1 goals per game over their last 15 matches; IFK Gothenburg conceded 1.9.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides have been scoring and conceding regularly in recent league play, making BTTS a reasonable call.
- Mjallby scored in 4 of their last 5 Allsvenskan matches and conceded in 4 of those 5.
- IFK Gothenburg scored in 4 of their last 5 Allsvenskan matches and conceded in 3 of those 5.
- H2H last 5 meetings: both teams scored in 2 of 5, but recent form suggests higher likelihood.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to see first-half goals, with combined averages suggesting over 0.5 is likely.
- Mjallby's last 5 Allsvenskan matches: first-half goals in 4 of 5 (0-3, 0-0, 0-1, 0-0, 0-3).
- IFK Gothenburg's last 5 Allsvenskan matches: first-half goals in 4 of 5 (0-0, 0-0, 0-3, 1-1, 1-0).
- Mjallby average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.8 conceded; IFK Gothenburg average 0.7 scored and 1.1 conceded.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves have been productive for both teams, but the line is higher, so confidence is low.
- Mjallby's last 5 Allsvenskan matches averaged 2.2 second-half goals (4-3, 0-1, 1-2, 0-0, 4-4).
- IFK Gothenburg's last 5 Allsvenskan matches averaged 1.8 second-half goals (1-0, 1-1, 0-3, 3-2, 2-0).
- Both teams have shown vulnerability late in games, with multiple second-half goals in recent matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Mjallby's defensive record and IFK Gothenburg's scoring form make a home clean sheet unlikely.
- Mjallby have kept only 1 clean sheet in their last 5 Allsvenskan matches.
- IFK Gothenburg have scored in 4 of their last 5 Allsvenskan matches.
- Mjallby's home record: 10 goals conceded in 8 matches (1.25 per game).
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonIFK Gothenburg to scoreEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
IFK Gothenburg's poor away defensive record and Mjallby's scoring ability make an away clean sheet unlikely.
- IFK Gothenburg have kept only 2 clean sheets in their last 5 Allsvenskan matches.
- Mjallby have scored in 4 of their last 5 Allsvenskan matches.
- IFK Gothenburg's away record: 27 goals conceded in 9 matches (3.0 per game).
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonMjallby to scoreEstimated chance58%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
IFK Gothenburg's high corner count and Mjallby's moderate numbers suggest a combined total above 9.5 is possible.
- Mjallby average 3.7 corners per match; IFK Gothenburg average 7.6 corners per match.
- IFK Gothenburg's last 5 Allsvenskan matches: corner totals 16, 14, 16, 21, 15 (average 16.4).
- Mjallby's last 5 Allsvenskan matches: corner totals 5, 2, 6, 11, 11 (average 7.0).
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
IFK Gothenburg's high shot volume could push the total over, but Mjallby's low numbers make this a coin flip.
- Mjallby average 3.3 shots on target per match; IFK Gothenburg average 4.5 shots on target per match.
- Combined average shots on target: 7.8, slightly below the 8.5 line.
- IFK Gothenburg's last 5 Allsvenskan matches: shots on target totals 10, 11, 8, 13, 10 (average 10.4).
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' disciplinary records suggest a moderate chance of exceeding 3.5 cards.
- Mjallby average 2.2 yellow cards per match; IFK Gothenburg average 1.6 yellow cards per match.
- Combined average yellow cards: 3.8, slightly above the 3.5 line.
- Mjallby's last 5 Allsvenskan matches: yellow cards 1, 3, 1, 3, 4 (average 2.4); IFK Gothenburg: 2, 2, 0, 1, 2 (average 1.4).
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance55%