AllsvenskanFull time

Predictions graded

Orgryte1Hammarby1

HT 1–1Sun 6 Sept 2026, 12:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–550%

Edges3–633%

PossPossession 29%–71%ShotsShots 2–24On targetOn target 1–10CornersCorners 2–8

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Sep 2026, 18:30 · Europe/Bucharest

Hammarby are clear favourites but the 1.22 odds offer no value (our estimate 72% vs implied 82%).

The only positive edge is Over 1.5 second-half goals at 1.80 (60% vs 55.6%), while most other markets are priced too short to bet.

Context

Orgryte are 15th in Allsvenskan with 14 points from 19 matches, two points below the relegation playoff line.
Their home record is 1 win, 5 draws, and 3 losses, with 15 goals scored and 17 conceded. This shows they struggle to turn home advantage into wins, often drawing or losing. Against Hammarby, who have the second-best away record in the league, this pattern suggests Orgryte will find it hard to secure a positive result.
- Orgryte have 1 win, 5 draws, and 3 losses in 9 home league matches this season.
- They have scored 15 goals and conceded 17 at home.
- Their overall form is LDLLW, with only one win in their last five league matches.
Örgryte attacker Noah Christoffersson has left the club for FC Thun, with the club describing him as a key player in their return to Allsvenskan.
His confirmed departure removes a forward from Örgryte's available selection for this match. The club must reconfigure its attacking options without him, and the absence of a key player in their recent promotion campaign reduces their depth up front. The impact is direct because it is a settled squad change rather than an unresolved fitness question.
- Örgryte announced an agreement for forward Noah Christoffersson to join FC Thun.
- The club stated that Christoffersson leaves Örgryte and described him as a key player in the return to Allsvenskan.
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Sep 2026, 18:28 · Europe/BucharestÖIS Fotboll: Noah Christoffersson sold to FC Thunoisfotboll.se · 1 Sep 2026
Hammarby are second in Allsvenskan with 36 points from 19 matches, but their away record is weaker than their home form.
Away from home, Hammarby have 3 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, scoring 13 and conceding 13. This is much worse than their home record of 8 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss. While they are favourites, their away performances have been less dominant, so Orgryte may be able to compete more closely than the table suggests.
- Hammarby have 3 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses in 9 away league matches.
- They have scored 13 goals and conceded 13 away from home.
- Their home record is 8 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, showing a big difference in performance.
Orgryte are in the relegation zone, partly because of their defensive record.
They have conceded 42 goals in 19 matches, an average of 2.2 per game. Only Halmstad have conceded more. Hammarby have scored 44 goals, the second-most in the league, so this mismatch could lead to another high-scoring game for the visitors.
- Orgryte have conceded 42 goals in 19 league matches, an average of 2.2 per game.
- Only Halmstad (35 conceded) have a worse defensive record among teams with 19 played.
- Hammarby have scored 44 goals in 19 matches, the second-highest total in the league.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 8

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Hammarby

1.22fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Hammarby's superior league position and goal difference support the directional read, but the odds already price in a very high probability.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Hammarby

1.05fair 1.14

BetBugs 88% · Market 95%

0.0ppshort

Orgryte's poor home form makes a Hammarby loss unlikely, but the price is extremely short and offers no value.

1 St Half ResultlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Hammarby

1.56fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 64%

0.0ppshort

Hammarby's strong first-half stats suggest an away lead, but the odds already reflect that likelihood.

HT/FTlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Hammarby at half-time / Hammarby at full-time

1.70fair 2.00

BetBugs 50% · Market 59%

0.0ppshort

The HT/FT combo is plausible but the odds are shorter than our estimated probability.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 2.5

1.30fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' recent matches trend towards high-scoring affairs, and Hammarby's attacking strength should produce multiple goals.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Over 3.5

1.80fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 55.6%

−10.6ppshort

Hammarby's attacking strength and Orgryte's defensive frailty could push the total beyond 3.5 goals.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.67fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 59.9%

0.0ppshort

Orgryte have shown they can score at home, and Hammarby's defence is not impenetrable, making both teams scoring plausible.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.17fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 85.5%

0.0ppshort

Hammarby's strong first-half scoring record makes a first-half goal likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hammarby's superior league position, away form, and goal difference make them clear favourites, reinforced by the massive H2H win.
- Hammarby rank 2nd with 36 points; Orgryte rank 15th with 14 points.
- Hammarby away record: 3W-2D-4L; Orgryte home record: 1W-5D-3L.
- Hammarby average 2.1 goals scored vs 0.9 conceded; Orgryte average 1.1 scored vs 2.3 conceded.
- H2H last meeting: Hammarby won 8-1 at home.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostHammarbyEstimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Orgryte's poor home form and Hammarby's quality, the away side is very unlikely to lose.
- Orgryte have only 1 home win in 9 matches.
- Hammarby have lost only 4 of 9 away matches.
- Hammarby's goal difference is +26 vs Orgryte's -20.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or HammarbyEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hammarby's tendency to start strongly and Orgryte's poor first-half record point to an away lead at the break.
- Hammarby led at half-time in 67% of matches.
- Orgryte trailed at half-time in 67% of matches.
- Hammarby average 1.1 first-half goals vs Orgryte's 0.5.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostHammarbyEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Hammarby are likely to lead at half-time and maintain their advantage against a struggling Orgryte side.
- Hammarby led at half-time in 67% of matches and won 58% overall.
- Orgryte trailed at half-time in 67% and lost 58% overall.
- Hammarby's away form is decent with 3 wins in 9.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostHammarby/HammarbyEstimated chance50%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches trend towards high-scoring affairs, and Hammarby's attacking strength should produce multiple goals.
- Orgryte matches average 3.4 total goals (1.1+2.3).
- Hammarby matches average 3.0 total goals (2.1+0.9).
- Hammarby scored 8 goals in the last H2H meeting.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Orgryte have shown they can score at home, and Hammarby's defence is not impenetrable, making both teams scoring plausible.
- Orgryte scored in 8 of their last 15 matches.
- Hammarby conceded in 7 of their last 15 matches.
- Orgryte average 1.1 goals per match overall.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hammarby's strong first-half scoring record makes a first-half goal likely.
- Hammarby average 1.1 first-half goals.
- Orgryte average 0.5 first-half goals but concede 0.9 first-half goals.
- Hammarby led at half-time in 67% of matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The second half often opens up as Hammarby push for goals and Orgryte chase the game.
- Hammarby average 1.0 second-half goals (2.1 total - 1.1 first half).
- Orgryte concede 1.4 second-half goals (2.3 total - 0.9 first half).
- Recent matches show late goals for both teams.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hammarby's high corner count should push the total over the line, though Orgryte's low numbers add uncertainty.
- Hammarby average 7.5 corners per match.
- Orgryte average 4.1 corners per match.
- Combined average is 11.6 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hammarby's attacking volume should lead to a high number of shots on target, but Orgryte's low output tempers confidence.
- Hammarby average 7.8 shots on target per match.
- Orgryte average 3.7 shots on target per match.
- Combined average is 11.5 shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance55%