Kalmar FF or Draw
Market 48.8% · BetBugs 55%
Kalmar's strong home record (5W-2D-1L) and Hammarby's mediocre away form (2W-2D-3L) make a home win or draw likely.
AllsvenskanFull time
Predictions gradedPre-match view
Kalmar's strong home form (5W-2D-1L) clashes with Hammarby's mediocre away record (2W-2D-3L), making the visitors' short price poor value.
The best betting edge is Double Chance: Kalmar or Draw at 2.05, offering a +6 point edge over our 55% estimate. Avoid Hammarby outright and DNB, as the market overestimates their chances based on H2H and league position.
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Positive edges · 1
Market 48.8% · BetBugs 55%
Kalmar's strong home record (5W-2D-1L) and Hammarby's mediocre away form (2W-2D-3L) make a home win or draw likely.
Other edges · 2
The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.
BetBugs 55% · Market 63.7%
Both teams' home/away splits and recent H2H suggest a moderately high-scoring match, but the odds imply a higher probability than our estimate.
BetBugs 55% · Market 63.7%
Both teams have shown consistent scoring and conceding patterns, but the market prices BTTS Yes at a higher probability than our model.
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Kalmar FF | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 21-24 | 18 |
| 2 | HammarbyQualifying | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 36-15 | 30 |

