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Predictions graded

Brommapojkarna1Hammarby1

HT 0–0Sun 26 Jul 2026, 12:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–544%

Edges1–233%

PossPossession 35%–65%ShotsShots 6–25On targetOn target 1–5CornersCorners 2–9

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Jul 2026, 08:56 · Europe/Bucharest

Brommapojkarna are missing their two best attackers (Hansen and Berg), while Hammarby are sandwiched between Europa League legs, likely leading to rotation.

The best value is Both Teams to Score – No (65% estimated vs. 45.5% implied), as BP’s depleted attack faces a Hammarby side that kept clean sheets in their last two visits here. Avoid backing Hammarby outright at short odds; instead, focus on a low-scoring away performance.

Context

BP's official report confirms Hansen's straight red and Berg's booking rule them out, calling them 'their two most important attackers'.
- Hansen has 4 goals and 5 assists this season, making him BP's best points producer.
- BP have scored only 6 goals in 5 home league games this season, and now lose their primary goal threat.
SVT's European qualifying guide lists Hammarby vs Anderlecht on July 23 and Anderlecht vs Hammarby on July 30.
- The July 26 trip to Brommapojkarna sits exactly between the two continental legs.
- Manager Henrik Rydström, still bedding in after a mid-season appointment, may rotate heavily to manage minutes.
Hammarby won 2-0 at Brommapojkarna in April 2025 and July 2024 in Allsvenskan play.
- BP failed to score in both matches, and now face the same opponent without their best attackers.
- Hammarby have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 15 matches overall.
BP announced on July 15 that the old stand failed safety requirements and will stay shut for the rest of 2026.
- For the Hammarby match, old-stand tickets are being refunded and the away section is expanded from 1,000 to 2,000 places.
- A larger away presence can reduce home-edge conditions and increase away support.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hammarby's strong H2H record and Brommapojkarna's key attacking absences give the visitors a clear edge, though Hammarby's fixture congestion between Europa League legs may limit their margin.
- Hammarby have won 3 of the last 4 Allsvenskan H2H meetings, including the last two at Brommapojkarna by 2-0 scorelines.
- Brommapojkarna are missing their two most important attackers (Hansen and Berg) due to suspension, removing their primary goal threat.
- Hammarby sit 2nd in the league with 26 points from 14 games, while Brommapojkarna are 11th with 16 points from 13 games.
- Brommapojkarna have only 1 win in 5 home league games this season (W1 D2 L2), scoring just 6 goals.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostHammarbyEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Brommapojkarna's attacking crisis and poor home form, it is highly unlikely they win; Hammarby should at least avoid defeat, making Draw or Hammarby a high-probability outcome.
- Brommapojkarna have lost 5 of their last 15 matches, with only 4 wins overall this season.
- Hammarby have lost only 4 of 14 league games and have the 2nd best goal difference (+18).
- Brommapojkarna's home record is poor: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses in 5 home league matches.
- Hammarby's away form is mixed (2W 1D 3L) but they face a weakened Brommapojkarna attack.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or HammarbyEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With Brommapojkarna likely to sit deep and Hammarby possibly rotating players, a cagey first half ending level is the most probable outcome.
- Brommapojkarna were drawing at half-time in 7 of their last 15 matches (47%).
- Hammarby were drawing at half-time in 5 of their last 15 matches (33%), but away from home they often start cautiously.
- The last two H2H meetings at Brommapojkarna had half-time scores of 0-0 and 1-0 (late goal).
- Brommapojkarna's first-half goal difference is -0.2 per game, while Hammarby's is +0.4, suggesting a balanced first half.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
If the first half is tight as expected, Hammarby's quality should tell in the second half, making Draw/Hammarby a plausible HT/FT combination.
- Hammarby have won after drawing at half-time in 2 of their last 15 matches.
- Brommapojkarna have lost after drawing at half-time in 3 of their last 15 matches.
- The last H2H at Brommapojkarna saw Hammarby lead 1-0 at half-time and win 2-0, but the previous one was 0-0 at half-time and 2-0 to Hammarby.
- Hammarby's superior squad depth and Brommapojkarna's attacking absences make a second-half breakthrough likely.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/HammarbyEstimated chance30%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With Brommapojkarna's attack blunted by suspensions and Hammarby likely to manage minutes between European ties, a low-scoring affair similar to recent H2H encounters at this venue is expected.
- Brommapojkarna average 1.3 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per game over their last 15 matches.
- Hammarby average 2.3 goals scored but only 1.1 conceded; their away games average 2.5 total goals (6 scored, 9 conceded in 6 away matches).
- The last two H2H meetings at Brommapojkarna ended 2-0 to Hammarby.
- Brommapojkarna are without their top scorer and assist provider, reducing their attacking output.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Brommapojkarna's attacking absences severely limit their scoring chances, and Hammarby's defense has been solid, making it likely that at least one team fails to score.
- Brommapojkarna failed to score in both of Hammarby's last two league visits to Grimsta (0-2, 0-2).
- Brommapojkarna are missing their best points producer (Hansen: 4 goals, 5 assists) and another key attacker (Berg).
- Hammarby have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 15 matches, conceding only 1.1 goals per game on average.
- Brommapojkarna have scored only 6 goals in 5 home league games this season.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hammarby's defensive record combined with Brommapojkarna's depleted attack points to a strong chance of an away clean sheet, continuing the trend from recent H2H meetings.
- Hammarby kept clean sheets in their last two league visits to Brommapojkarna (2-0 wins).
- Brommapojkarna have failed to score in 3 of their last 15 matches, and now miss their main attacking threats.
- Hammarby concede only 1.1 goals per game on average, with 5 clean sheets in their last 15 matches.
- Brommapojkarna average only 1.3 goals per game, and that number is likely to drop without Hansen and Berg.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostBrommapojkarna not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with Brommapojkarna particularly low-scoring in first halves; the pattern of tight opening periods in this fixture should continue.
- Brommapojkarna average only 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded in their last 15 matches.
- Hammarby average 1.0 first-half goals scored and 0.6 conceded, but their away first-half scoring is lower.
- In the last two H2H meetings at Brommapojkarna, the first half ended 0-0 and 1-0 (Hammarby scored in the 44th minute).
- Brommapojkarna led at half-time in only 33% of their last 15 matches, while Hammarby led in 40%.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent H2H meetings at this venue have been low on corners, and with Brommapojkarna likely to defend deep, the corner count may stay under the line.
- Brommapojkarna average 4.5 corners per game, while Hammarby average 5.8, for a combined average of 10.3.
- However, in the last two H2H meetings at Brommapojkarna, total corners were 7 and 8 (both under 9.5).
- Brommapojkarna's home matches average 9.2 total corners (4.6 for, 4.6 against).
- Hammarby's away matches average 8.8 total corners (5.2 for, 3.6 against).
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have relatively low card averages, and recent H2H encounters have been clean, suggesting a low-card affair.
- Brommapojkarna average 1.5 yellow cards per game, Hammarby average 1.1, for a combined 2.6 cards per game.
- In the last two H2H meetings at Brommapojkarna, total cards were 2 and 3 (both under 3.5).
- Brommapojkarna's home matches average 2.4 total cards, Hammarby's away matches average 2.2 total cards.
- No major disciplinary issues reported for either side beyond the suspensions already served.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonUnder 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 4 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

3W · 1D · 1W

W1-4IF BrommapojkarnavHammarby FFSep 4, 2025FRI

L3-2Hammarby FFvIF BrommapojkarnaJul 20, 2025ALL

W0-2IF BrommapojkarnavHammarby FFApr 6, 2025ALL

D3-3Hammarby FFvIF BrommapojkarnaAug 12, 2024ALL

W0-2IF BrommapojkarnavHammarby FFJul 20, 2024ALL

Brommapojkarna: 2 clean sheets4 goals/game avg

League Table

Allsvenskan 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
11	Brommapojkarna	13	4	4	5	18-21	16	LLDDW
2	Hammarby Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)	14	8	2	4	32-14	26	WWWLL

10pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Brommapojkarna

L1-2IFK GoteborgJul 17ALL

L1-2SiriusJul 12ALL

D1-1GaisJul 6ALL

L0-2Kalmar FFJun 27FRI

D2-2Degerfors IFMay 31ALL

W2-1Djurgardens IFMay 22ALL

W1-0Kalmar FFMay 17ALL

L0-2IF ElfsborgMay 8ALL

W3-1HalmstadMay 4ALL

L1-2Vasteras SK FKApr 26ALL

W2-1Orgryte ISApr 22ALL

L0-3Mjallby AIFApr 18ALL

D2-2AIK StockholmApr 13ALL

D2-2BK HackenApr 6ALL

L1-2IK brageMar 28FRI

Hammarby

W4-0Degerfors IFJul 19ALL

W2-0Kalmar FFJul 12ALL

W2-1IF ElfsborgJul 5ALL

W4-1BK HackenJun 24FRI

L2-3BK HackenMay 31ALL

L1-2AIK StockholmMay 24ALL

L0-2GaisMay 20ALL

W4-1Malmo FFMay 17ALL

L1-2Mjallby AIFMay 14SVE

W1-0IFK GoteborgMay 9ALL

W3-0Vasteras SK FKMay 3ALL

D1-1Djurgardens IFApr 26ALL

D1-1HalmstadApr 22ALL

W8-1Orgryte ISApr 18ALL

L0-2SiriusApr 13ALL

Squad & Injuries

Brommapojkarna

32 available

Attackers9

Midfielders11

Defenders8

Goalkeeper4

Hammarby

26 available

Attackers5

Midfielders9

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw at half-time / Hammarby at full-time

No

Under 1.5

Draw or Hammarby

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals1 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Hammarby

Under 2.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Brommapojkarna

Hammarby

Squad & Injuries

Brommapojkarna

Hammarby