FC Stockholm Internazionale0Hammarby3

HT 0–2Wed 26 Aug 2026, 16:30 Predictions graded

Predictions7–278%

Edges5–271%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Aug 2026, 22:48 · Europe/Bucharest

Hammarby are clear favourites, but the odds on the away win, double chance, and over 2.5 goals offer no value.

The only positive edge is over 1.5 second-half goals at 1.95 (model 60% vs implied 51.3%). Wait for Hammarby's lineup given the AIK derby three days later.

Context

Hammarby's next league match is against AIK on 30 August, three days after this cup tie.
- The club's official site confirms the cup tie sits between GAIS and AIK league fixtures.
- Rotation risk is the biggest unknown for bettors, as noted in the narrative.
FC Stockholm list Hammarby IP 1 (Kanalplan) as their home venue.
- The pitch is artificial turf with scheduled watering before and after warm-up and at half-time.
- Hammarby's recent matches have been on grass, so the surface is a minor adjustment.
The senior sides met once: Hammarby won 3-0 away on 22 February 2025 in Svenska Cupen.
- The match was 0-0 at half-time before Hammarby scored three after the break.
- A friendly in 2024 ended 0-0, but that is not a competitive reference.
FC Stockholm's recent wins include 4-0 vs Arlanda and 6-1 vs Stocksund in Ettan Norra.
- They lost 0-2 to Vasalund and 0-2 to AFC Eskilstuna, both lower-division sides.
- Hammarby's defence concedes only 1.1 goals per game in Allsvenskan.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Hammarby

1.18fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 84.7%

0.0ppshort

Hammarby's superior league level and strong recent form, combined with the H2H win, make them clear favourites.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Hammarby

1.04fair 1.09

BetBugs 92% · Market 96.2%

0.0ppshort

Hammarby's consistency and quality gap make a draw or away win highly likely.

HT/FTwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Hammarby at half-time / Hammarby at full-time

1.67fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 59.9%

0.0ppshort

Hammarby's ability to lead at half-time and close out games makes HT/FT Hammarby a reasonable prediction.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 2.5

1.38fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 72.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams average over 1.9 goals scored per game and the sole H2H produced three goals, but the odds already price a high-scoring game.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.22fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Both teams average 0.9 first-half goals per match and led at half-time in roughly half their games, but the odds heavily favour the over.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hammarby's superior league level and strong recent form, combined with the H2H win, make them clear favourites.
- Hammarby average 1.9 goals scored and 1.1 conceded across last 15 matches, with 53% leading at half-time.
- FC Stockholm Internazionale average 2.3 goals scored but 1.0 conceded in Ettan Norra, a lower division.
- Hammarby won the only senior H2H 3-0 away in 2025 Svenska Cupen.
- Hammarby have won 4 of their last 5 Allsvenskan matches, including 4-0 vs Kalmar and 3-0 vs Hacken.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonHammarbyEstimated chance78%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hammarby's consistency and quality gap make a draw or away win highly likely.
- Hammarby have lost only 3 of their last 15 matches across all competitions.
- FC Stockholm Internazionale have lost 3 of their last 15, but all losses came against lower-division sides.
- Hammarby's away form includes a 4-0 win at Kalmar and a 2-1 win at Elfsborg in Allsvenskan.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or HammarbyEstimated chance92%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Hammarby's slightly better first-half record and higher league level give them an edge to lead at the break.
- Hammarby led at half-time in 53% of their matches.
- FC Stockholm led at half-time in 47% of their matches.
- Hammarby's first-half goal difference is +0.6 per match (0.9 scored - 0.3 conceded).
- FC Stockholm's first-half goal difference is +0.5 per match (0.9 scored - 0.4 conceded).
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonHammarbyEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Hammarby's ability to lead at half-time and close out games makes HT/FT Hammarby a reasonable prediction.
- Hammarby led at half-time in 53% of matches and won 60% of matches overall.
- FC Stockholm led at half-time in 47% but won only 47% of matches.
- Hammarby's superior squad depth should allow them to maintain or extend a lead.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonHammarby/HammarbyEstimated chance45%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have positive attacking numbers and the H2H produced 3 goals, supporting over 2.5.
- FC Stockholm Internazionale average 2.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match.
- Hammarby average 1.9 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per match.
- Hammarby's last 5 matches have seen 3, 1, 3, 0, and 4 total goals (avg 2.2).
- FC Stockholm's last 5 matches have seen 2, 5, 2, 4, and 2 total goals (avg 3.0).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
FC Stockholm's consistent scoring record and Hammarby's occasional defensive lapses make both teams scoring plausible.
- FC Stockholm Internazionale have scored in 13 of their last 15 matches.
- Hammarby have conceded in 8 of their last 15 matches.
- FC Stockholm average 2.3 goals per game, suggesting they can trouble Hammarby's defence.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Hammarby's defensive solidity and FC Stockholm's occasional blanks give a moderate chance of an away clean sheet.
- Hammarby kept clean sheets in 4 of their last 15 matches.
- FC Stockholm failed to score in 2 of their last 15 matches.
- Hammarby's defensive record is solid with 1.1 goals conceded per game.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonFC Stockholm Internazionale not to scoreEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, making over 0.5 first-half goals likely.
- FC Stockholm Internazionale average 0.9 first-half goals per match.
- Hammarby average 0.9 first-half goals per match.
- Hammarby led at half-time in 53% of their matches.
- FC Stockholm led at half-time in 47% of their matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H pattern and both teams' second-half scoring suggest over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Hammarby scored 3 second-half goals in the H2H meeting.
- FC Stockholm average 1.4 second-half goals per match (2.3 total - 0.9 first half).
- Hammarby average 1.0 second-half goals per match (1.9 total - 0.9 first half).
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hammarby's high corner count and expected dominance should push total corners over 9.5.
- Hammarby average 7.2 corners per match.
- Hammarby's opponents average 3.4 corners per match (total 10.6).
- FC Stockholm's corner data is unavailable, but lower-division teams often concede more corners against stronger sides.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Hammarby's high shot volume should lead to over 8.5 total shots on target.
- Hammarby average 7.3 shots on target per match.
- Hammarby's opponents average 3.1 shots on target per match (total 10.4).
- FC Stockholm's shot data is unavailable, but they are likely to have fewer shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The competitive nature of a cup tie and Hammarby's disciplinary record suggest over 3.5 cards.
- Hammarby average 1.4 yellow cards per match.
- Hammarby's opponents average 1.9 yellow cards per match (total 3.3).
- Cup matches often see more cards due to competitive intensity.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance55%