FC Trollhattan1Mjallby0

HT 1–0Tue 6 Oct 2026, 15:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–750%

Edges4–180%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Oct 2026, 00:26 · Europe/Bucharest

A third-tier side in strong home form against an Allsvenskan club that has not won away in seven matches — that is the tension at Edsborgs IP.

Mjällby's higher-division quality still makes them the likelier winner of the tie, but 1.38 asks far too much. Three quoted prices carry an edge: Trollhättan to win or draw in normal time at 2.9, Trollhättan to win at 6, and fewer than three goals at 2.5.

Context

Mjällby's October is split three ways: the Allsvenskan run-in resumes with Degerfors at home on 10 October, the Conference League league phase opens at home on 15 October against Inter Club d'Escaldes, and this cup tie is squeezed between them. For a top-flight squad in that position, a Tuesday at a third-tier ground is exactly the sort of fixture where the starting eleven is most likely to change, and the lower level of the opposition reduces what is risked by doing so. Trollhättan come into the tie without a comparable midweek load. No lineup has been published, so any rotation remains an expectation rather than a stated plan.
- Mjällby host Degerfors IF at Strandvallen on Saturday 10 October when Allsvenskan resumes after the international break, with most sections sold out.
- Mjällby's first two Conference League home matches are against Inter Club d'Escaldes on 15 October and FK Borac on 5 November.
- Mjällby went into the October break after a home league defeat on 20 September.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Oct 2026, 00:24 · Europe/Bucharest
Trollhättan's home record is the reason this tie is not a formality for a top-flight visitor: seven home matches from 13 June to 26 September brought four wins, two draws and one defeat, with 2.43 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. Mjällby's away numbers point the same way — no wins and 0.43 goals a game in seven matches. The sample is seven home games, so it describes a run of form in the third tier rather than a proven level against Allsvenskan opposition.
- FC Trollhattan home matches, 13 June to 26 September 2026: 4W 2D 1L in 7, scoring 2.43 and conceding 1.14 per game.
- Both teams scored in 5 of those 7 home matches, with 1 clean sheet.
Mjällby's away record is the sharpest counterweight to their division advantage: seven matches from 25 July to 16 September produced no wins, three draws and four defeats, with 0.43 goals scored per game. Every away goal in that run came before half-time; the second-half rate is zero. It is a small sample and a cup tie is its own context, but it is the record the visitors carry into Tuesday.
- Mjallby away, 25 July to 16 September 2026: 0W 3D 4L in 7, scoring 0.43 and conceding 1.86 per game.
- Second-half goals scored in those away matches: 0.00 per game across 7 matches.
- First-half goals scored away: 0.43 per game across 7 matches.
Round two is a single-match knockout tie, so the October date decides whether this fixture happens at all: it was pulled out of Mjällby's crowded summer calendar and played at Edsborgs IP rather than in December. That hands Trollhättan a home night against top-flight opposition instead of a long trip, in a format where a third-tier side's best route is one 90-minute performance on its own ground. Mjällby's cost is a mid-break journey to a small venue between their league and European commitments. Kick-off is 17:00 and the match is on Expressen.
- FC Trollhättan host Mjällby AIF in the second round of Svenska Cupen on Tuesday 6 October at 17.00 at Edsborgs IP.
- The tie was played in October rather than its original slot because Mjällby's summer schedule was congested.
- The October date was chosen in place of a December option.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Oct 2026, 00:24 · Europe/BucharestFC Trollhättan tar emot Mjällby i Svenska cupen efter kryss i Åtvidabergfotbollsbilagan.se · 5 Oct 2026Då kommer Mjällby till Trollhättanwww.ttela.se · 18 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Mjallby's higher-division quality gives them the edge, but their poor away form makes this closer than usual.
- Mjallby overall: 2W 3D 10L, GF 0.80, GA 1.93 in 15
- Mjallby away: 0W 3D 4L, GF 0.43, GA 1.86 in 7
- FC Trollhattan home: 4W 2D 1L, GF 2.43, GA 1.14 in 7
- FC Trollhattan overall: 8W 3D 3L, GF 1.86, GA 1.07 in 14
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMjallbyEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have modest first-half scoring, and a cup tie may start cautiously.
- FC Trollhattan home 1H GF 1.29, 1H GA 0.43
- Mjallby away 1H GF 0.43, 1H GA 0.71
- FC Trollhattan overall 1H GF 0.93, 1H GA 0.43
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance43%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Mjallby have not scored a second-half goal away all season, while Trollhattan are strong after the break at home.
- FC Trollhattan home 2H GF 1.14, GA 0.71
- Mjallby away 2H GF 0.00, GA 1.14
- Mjallby away 2H scoring is zero
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostFC TrollhattanEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Mjallby's higher-division quality gives them the edge, but their poor away form makes this closer than usual. A single-match cup tie between a strong home side and a struggling top-flight visitor often stays level in normal time.
- Mjallby overall: 2W 3D 10L, GF 0.80, GA 1.93 in 15
- Mjallby away: 0W 3D 4L, GF 0.43, GA 1.86 in 7
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or MjallbyEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Trollhattan starts strongly at home, while Mjallby has scored just 0.43 first-half goals away. Both teams have modest first-half scoring, and a cup tie may start cautiously.
- FC Trollhattan home 1H GF 1.29, 1H GA 0.43
- Mjallby away 1H GF 0.43, 1H GA 0.71
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonFC Trollhattan or DrawEstimated chance75%

Goals6 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches average around three total goals, with Trollhattan's home games especially high-scoring.
- FC Trollhattan home total goals average 3.57
- Mjallby away total goals average 2.29
- FC Trollhattan overall total goals average 2.93
- Mjallby overall total goals average 2.73
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Trollhattan's home games often see both teams score, and Mjallby should create chances against a third-tier defence.
- FC Trollhattan home both scored in 5 of 7
- Mjallby away both scored in 3 of 7
- FC Trollhattan home GF 2.43, GA 1.14
- Mjallby away GF 0.43, GA 1.86
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mjallby's top-flight defence may limit Trollhattan to one goal or fewer.
- FC Trollhattan home GF 2.43
- Mjallby away GA 1.86
- FC Trollhattan overall GF 1.86
- Mjallby overall GA 1.93
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonFC Trollhattan under 1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Mjallby's away scoring average is only 0.43, making two goals unlikely.
- Mjallby away GF 0.43
- FC Trollhattan home GA 1.14
- Mjallby overall GF 0.80
- FC Trollhattan overall GA 1.07
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonMjallby under 1.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Mjallby's top-flight quality makes it likely they will score against a third-tier defence.
- Mjallby away GF 0.43
- FC Trollhattan home GA 1.14
- Mjallby away scored in 3 of 7
- Mjallby away clean sheets 1
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostMjallby to scoreEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Trollhattan have scored in 6 of 7 home games, so Mjallby are unlikely to keep a clean sheet.
- FC Trollhattan home GF 2.43
- Mjallby away GA 1.86
- Mjallby away clean sheets 1 in 7
- FC Trollhattan home scored in 6 of 7
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonFC Trollhattan to scoreEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
Both teams' first-half totals average over one goal, making at least one first-half goal likely.
- FC Trollhattan home 1H total goals average 1.71
- Mjallby away 1H total goals average 1.14
- FC Trollhattan overall 1H total goals average 1.36
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Mjallby's low away first-half scoring makes it unlikely both teams score before the break.
- FC Trollhattan home 1H GF 1.29, 1H GA 0.43
- Mjallby away 1H GF 0.43, 1H GA 0.71
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mjallby's away second-half scoring is zero, making a low-scoring second half likely.
- FC Trollhattan home 2H total goals average 1.86
- Mjallby away 2H total goals average 1.14
- Combined second-half average around 1.5
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance55%