Degerfors0Hammarby1

HT 0–0Sun 20 Sept 2026, 14:30 Predictions graded

Predictions7–6–154%

Edges2–6–125%

PossPossession 43%–57%ShotsShots 9–17On targetOn target 1–12CornersCorners 1–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 Sep 2026, 05:08 · Europe/Bucharest

Hammarby are the likely winner given the quality gap, H2H dominance and live title race, but their 3W-3D-4L away record means the 1.30 match-winner price and 1.09 double chance offer no value.

The standout positive edge is corners over 10.5 at 1.85, while the 1.85 Hammarby/Hammarby half-time/full-time bet looks overpriced on the 4-0 July result.

Context

Degerfors are 14th in the 16-team Allsvenskan on 19 points from 21 matches, a record of five wins, four draws and 12 defeats. Their home record is three wins, two draws and five losses from 10 games.
The table position matters because the gap to 15th-placed Orgryte is four points, so a defeat at home keeps Degerfors inside the relegation playoff place rather than merely near it. Their home form shows they have won only three of 10 league games there, which limits how much they can rely on home advantage to pull clear.
- Degerfors are 14th with 19 points from 21 matches (W5 D4 L12), the relegation playoff position.
- They are level on points with 13th-placed Kalmar and four points above 15th-placed Orgryte.
- At home this season Degerfors have W3 D2 L5, scoring 11 and conceding 14 in 10 games.
Hammarby are third in the Allsvenskan on 40 points from 21 games, with 12 wins, four draws and five defeats. They have scored 48 and conceded 20, giving them the joint-best goal difference in the league at plus 28.
The gap to second-placed Djurgarden is one point, so Hammarby have a concrete reason to push for a win rather than manage the game. Their away record is more modest than their home form, with three wins, three draws and four defeats from 10 away games, which is the main limit on how strongly their league position translates into this specific fixture.
- Hammarby are third with 40 points from 21 matches (W12 D4 L5) and a goal difference of plus 28.
- They trail second-placed Djurgarden by one point and leaders Sirius by 11.
- Away from home Hammarby have W3 D3 L4, scoring 14 and conceding 14 in 10 games.
The sides have met five times in the supplied H2H sample, all in the Allsvenskan, with Hammarby winning three, two ending as draws and Degerfors winning none.
The July meeting is the most relevant because it is the only one from this season and it was decided by four goals, with Hammarby recording 22 shots and 11 on target to Degerfors' eight shots and one on target. That single game does not prove Hammarby will repeat the scoreline, but it shows the gap in chance creation between the sides in their most recent meeting.
- On 19 July 2026 Hammarby beat Degerfors 4-0 at home in the Allsvenskan.
- In that match Hammarby had 22 shots with 11 on target, while Degerfors had eight shots with one on target.
- Across the five supplied H2H meetings Hammarby have three wins and two draws, with no Degerfors win.
Hammarby sit third on 40 points after 21 matches with nine rounds left, and Degerfors' own preview calls them title-chasing.
That table position gives Hammarby a direct reason to keep taking points rather than manage the closing rounds, which shapes how they approach a trip to a lower-ranked host. The claim establishes the incentive only; it does not show how Degerfors will cope with it.
- Fotbollskanalen listed Hammarby third on 40 points after 21 matches, with nine rounds remaining.
- Degerfors’ official preview describes Hammarby as title-chasing.
ConfirmedSources checked 20 Sep 2026, 05:08 · Europe/BucharestFotbollskanalen title-race updatewww.fotbollskanalen.se · 15 Sep 2026Degerfors IF match previewdegerforsif.se · 18 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 8

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Hammarby

1.30fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 77%

0.0ppshort

The market has fully absorbed the structural gap and H2H blowout, pricing Hammarby at 1.30 when their own away form (3W-3D-4L) does not support a 77% implied win rate.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Hammarby

1.09fair 1.18

BetBugs 85% · Market 92%

0.0ppshort

At 1.09 the market demands 92% for a side whose away record is only 3W-3D-4L; our 85% estimate leaves no cushion and the vig is punitive.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Structural quality gap plus H2H dominance (4-0 in July) and Hammarby's live title-race motivation point to an away win, despite Degerfors' sold-out home crowd.
- Hammarby rank 3rd on 40 pts (12W-4D-5L, 48 GF / 20 GA) after 21 matches; Degerfors 14th on 19 pts (5W-4D-12L, 19 GF / 33 GA)
- H2H last 5: Hammarby won 4-0 at home on 2026-07-19 and 1-0 on 2025-05-26; Degerfors have not beaten Hammarby in the last 5 meetings
- Hammarby last 15: 1.9 goals scored, 0.8 conceded, 21.1 shots, 8.1 on target, 56.8% possession; Degerfors 1.2 scored, 1.6 conceded, 3.4 on target
- Degerfors last 5 league matches: 1W-4L, scoring 2 goals total, with 60% of matches trailing at half-time
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonHammarbyEstimated chance68%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hammarby's weaker away split and Degerfors' modest home resilience make a draw a real secondary path, so covering the away side against the draw is the safest result-market play.
- Hammarby away record 3W-3D-4L (14 GF / 14 GA) in 10 away matches — less dominant than their 9W-1D-1L home record
- Degerfors home record 3W-2D-5L (11 GF / 14 GA) in 10 home matches, so they are not winless at Stora Valla
- H2H last 5: two draws (1-1 in Nov 2025, 2-2 in May 2023) alongside three Hammarby wins
- Degerfors have drawn 4 of 21 league matches and lost 12, but 2 of their last 5 were decided by a single goal
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or HammarbyEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The half-time leading/trailing splits (60% vs 60%) and Hammarby's early-goal pattern give them a clear edge to be ahead at the break.
- Hammarby led at half-time in 60% of their last 15 matches; Degerfors trailed at half-time in 60%
- Hammarby scored 2 first-half goals in each of their last two league matches (3-1 vs Brommapojkarna, 2-3 vs AIK)
- Degerfors have scored only 0.5 first-half goals per match and conceded 0.7
- H2H 2026-07-19: Hammarby 2-0 up at the interval
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostHammarbyEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Hammarby's strong half-time leading rate combined with Degerfors' frequent half-time deficits makes the away/away double the most plausible HT-FT combination.
- Hammarby led at half-time in 60% of their last 15 matches and won 12 of 21 league games
- Degerfors trailed at half-time in 60% of matches and lost 12 of 21
- H2H 2026-07-19: Hammarby led 2-0 at half-time and won 4-0
- Hammarby's last 5 league matches: 3-1 W, 1-1 D, 2-3 L, 2-0 W, 4-0 W
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostHammarby / HammarbyEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Hammarby's recent H2H blowout and multiple 2+ goal wins support the -1 line, but their weaker away split keeps this a medium-confidence play.
- H2H 2026-07-19: Hammarby won 4-0 away at Degerfors, covering a -1 handicap comfortably
- Hammarby's last 5 league matches include 3-1, 2-0 and 4-0 wins — three wins by 2+ goals
- Degerfors lost 4 of their last 5 league matches, three by a 0-2 scoreline
- Hammarby away record 3W-3D-4L with 14 GF / 14 GA — away wins are less emphatic than home
BetBugs · Asian HandicappushHammarby -1Estimated chance48%

Goals3 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Hammarby's high-volume attack (21.1 shots per match) against a Degerfors defence conceding 1.6 per game supports a moderate over lean, tempered by Degerfors' own low scoring output.
- Hammarby average 1.9 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per match over the last 15; Degerfors 1.2 scored and 1.6 conceded
- H2H last 5 meetings produced 4-0, 1-1, 1-0, 2-2 and 3-1 — three of five went over 2.5
- Hammarby's last 5 league matches: 3-1, 1-1, 2-3, 2-0, 4-0 — four of five produced 3+ goals
- Degerfors' last 5 league matches: 0-2, 2-0, 0-2, 0-2, 0-2 — only one produced 3+ goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Degerfors' chronic scoring drought (0 goals in four of five recent league games) against Hammarby's strong defensive record makes a clean sheet for the visitors the more likely side of this market.
- Degerfors have scored 0 goals in 4 of their last 5 league matches (0-2, 2-0, 0-2, 0-2, 0-2)
- Hammarby have kept clean sheets in 4 of their last 5 league matches (3-1, 1-1, 2-3, 2-0, 4-0 — only AIK and Orgryte scored)
- H2H last 5: Degerfors failed to score in 3 of 5 meetings, including the 4-0 and 1-0 defeats
- Hammarby concede only 0.8 goals per match across the last 15, with 6 goals against in 11 home matches this season
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hammarby's habit of scoring early (60% half-time leads, 1.0 first-half goals per game) against a Degerfors side that trails at the break in 60% of matches makes a first-half goal highly likely.
- Hammarby average 1.0 first-half goals scored and 0.3 conceded over the last 15 matches
- Hammarby led at half-time in 60% of matches and scored first-half goals in 4 of their last 5 league games (2,1,2,2,1)
- Degerfors conceded first-half goals in 4 of their last 5 league matches and trailed at half-time in 60% of matches
- H2H 2026-07-19: Hammarby led 2-0 at half-time in the 4-0 win
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent second-half scoring and conceding patterns, plus Hammarby's high shot volume (21.1 per match), support a moderate over on the second-half line.
- Hammarby's last 5 league matches produced second-half goals in every game (3-1, 1-1, 2-3, 2-0, 4-0)
- Degerfors conceded second-half goals in 4 of their last 5 league matches
- Hammarby average 0.9 second-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded over the last 15
- H2H 2026-07-19: two second-half goals in the 4-0 win
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Degerfors' scoring drought against Hammarby's strong defensive record (0.8 conceded per game) makes an away clean sheet a coin-flip-plus proposition.
- Hammarby kept clean sheets in 4 of their last 5 league matches (3-1, 1-1, 2-3, 2-0, 4-0)
- Degerfors scored 0 goals in 4 of their last 5 league matches
- Hammarby concede 0.8 goals per match over the last 15; Degerfors score 1.2
- H2H 2026-07-19: Degerfors held to 0 goals in the 4-0 defeat
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonDegerfors not to scoreEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Hammarby's recent H2H clean-sheet wins and Degerfors' scoring drought support a win-to-nil, though Hammarby's leakier away record tempers the probability.
- Hammarby won 4-0 and 1-0 in the last two H2H meetings, both without conceding
- Hammarby's last 5 league matches include 2-0 and 4-0 wins to nil
- Degerfors have scored 0 goals in 4 of their last 5 league matches
- Hammarby away record: 14 goals scored and 14 conceded in 10 away matches — clean sheets less frequent on the road
BetBugs · Away Win to NilwonYesEstimated chance42%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Hammarby's sustained attacking volume and Degerfors' tendency to concede corners at home make a combined total above 9.5 the more likely side.
- Hammarby average 7.4 corners per match over the last 15; Degerfors 5.4
- Hammarby's last 5 league matches produced corner counts of 6, 8, 7, 8, 9
- Degerfors' last 5 league matches produced 7, 12, 6, 0, 2 corners — volatile but often high at home
- H2H 2026-07-19: Hammarby generated 6 corners in the 4-0 win
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Hammarby alone regularly clear 8 shots on target, and Degerfors' home shot volume adds to the combined total, supporting the over.
- Hammarby average 8.1 shots on target per match over the last 15; Degerfors 3.4
- Hammarby's last 5 league matches produced 8, 10, 12, 7, 14 shots on target
- Degerfors' last 5 league matches produced 7, 5, 1, 3, 0 shots on target
- H2H 2026-07-19: Hammarby registered 11 shots on target in the 4-0 win
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides' moderate foul and card averages make the over a marginal lean, but the low recent H2H card count keeps confidence low.
- Degerfors average 12.1 fouls and 1.8 yellow cards per match over the last 15
- Hammarby average 11.8 fouls and 1.4 yellow cards per match, with 0.2 red cards
- Degerfors' last 5 league matches produced yellow-card counts of 1, 2, 2, 1, 2
- H2H 2026-07-19: no cards shown in the 4-0 Hammarby win
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance52%