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HammarbyBrommapojkarna

Sun 13 Sept 2026, 12:0013 Sept, 12:00

11Probabilities0Priced7Edges88%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight leanNear coin-flip

Quick Take

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Context last updated 11 Sep 2026, 00:31 · Europe/Bucharest

Hammarby are strong favourites at home and likely to win, but the odds are heavily skewed with no value on the home win or double chance.

The only marginal edges are BTTS Yes at 1.78 and Over 1.5 second-half goals at 1.83, but both are thin; the best approach is to avoid the overpriced favourites and consider a small play on BTTS if seeking action.

Context

Hammarby's strong home record and Brommapojkarna's poor away form create a clear gap, while the derby and table stakes add pressure.

Hammarby sit third in Allsvenskan with 37 points, while Brommapojkarna are tenth with 27 points.
Hammarby's home record is the strongest part of their season: 8 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, and only 5 goals conceded in 10 matches. Brommapojkarna's away record is much weaker, with 3 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses, and 20 goals conceded. This gap suggests Hammarby can control the match at home, but Brommapojkarna's recent away draw at Sirius and win at Djurgardens show they can compete on the road.
- Hammarby home record: 8 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, 31 goals for, 5 against in 10 matches.
- Brommapojkarna away record: 3 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses, 14 goals for, 20 against in 10 matches.
- Hammarby's last home league match: 2-0 win over Gais on 2026-08-23.
- Brommapojkarna's last away league match: 0-4 loss to Gais on 2026-08-31.
Hammarby are third in the table and pushing for a European spot.
Hammarby's recent league results show a team that scores freely: 4-0 at Kalmar on 2026-08-16, 3-0 at home to Hacken on 2026-08-09, and 2-0 at home to Gais on 2026-08-23. The 2-3 loss at AIK on 2026-08-30 was a setback, but they had led 2-1 at half-time. Their attacking output remains high, with 21.5 shots per game on average.
- Hammarby's last five league matches: W, W, W, L, D (most recent first).
- Hammarby beat Kalmar FF 4-0 away on 2026-08-16.
- Hammarby lost 2-3 at AIK Stockholm on 2026-08-30.
- Hammarby average 21.5 shots per game, highest in the league.
Hammarby midfielder A. Boudri is in knee rehabilitation and is not expected to play before the international break.
His absence narrows Hammarby's midfield selection options for this match. The team must cover his place without a direct replacement named in the available evidence.
- Hammarby said Boudri began rehabilitation after a knee injury sustained in the AIK derby and would not be selectable for a period.
- Hammarby sporting director Mikael Hjelmberg said Boudri is expected to miss the matches before the international break.
ConfirmedSources checked 11 Sep 2026, 00:29 · Europe/BucharestHammarby Fotboll: Rehabträning väntar för Amin Boudriwww.hammarbyfotboll.se · 3 Sep 2026Fotbollskanalen: Beskedet: Frånvaro väntar för Boudriwww.fotbollskanalen.se · 3 Sep 2026
Brommapojkarna are mid-table with 27 points, safe from relegation but far from European places.
Brommapojkarna's away results have been mixed: a 2-1 win at Djurgarden on 2026-05-22 shows they can beat strong teams, but a 0-4 loss at Gais on 2026-08-31 and a 1-2 loss at IFK Goteborg on 2026-07-17 highlight defensive problems. They have conceded 20 goals in 10 away games, an average of 2 per match, which could be exploited by Hammarby's attack.
- Brommapojkarna away record: 3 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses.
- Brommapojkarna won 2-1 at Djurgardens IF on 2026-05-22.
- Brommapojkarna lost 0-4 at Gais on 2026-08-31.
- Brommapojkarna have conceded 20 goals in 10 away matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerUncertainty band: Strong lean

Hammarby

1.20fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 83.3%

0.0ppshort

Hammarby's dominant home record and Brommapojkarna's poor away form support a home win, but the odds are heavily skewed and offer no value.

Double ChanceUncertainty band: Strong lean

Hammarby or Draw

1.06fair 1.14

BetBugs 88% · Market 94.3%

−6.3ppshort

Hammarby's strong home form makes them unlikely to lose, but the odds are so short that the edge is negative.

1 St Half ResultUncertainty band: Slight lean

Hammarby

1.50fair 1.92

BetBugs 52% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Hammarby's first-half home dominance is notable, but the odds imply a much higher probability than our estimate.

HT/FTUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Hammarby at half-time / Hammarby at full-time

1.57fair 2.08

BetBugs 48% · Market 63.7%

0.0ppshort

Hammarby often lead at half-time and win at home, but the odds are too short relative to our probability.

Goals Over/UnderUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.30fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' recent matches and H2H history show a tendency for high-scoring games, but the odds heavily favor over 2.5, leaving no value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result4 outcomes · top 88%

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hammarby's dominant home form and Brommapojkarna's poor away defensive record, combined with Hammarby's motivation to secure a top-three European spot, make a home win the most likely outcome.
- Hammarby home record this season: 8W-1D-1L, 31 goals scored, 5 conceded in 10 matches.
- Brommapojkarna away record: 3W-3D-4L, 14 goals scored, 20 conceded in 10 matches.
- Hammarby average 2.0 goals per match overall and 3.1 goals per home match; Brommapojkarna concede 1.5 goals per match overall and 2.0 per away match.
- Last 5 H2H: Hammarby 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss; Hammarby won the most recent home meeting 3-2.
BetBugs · Match WinnerHammarbyEstimated chance68%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Hammarby's strong home record and Brommapojkarna's inconsistent away form, the probability of Hammarby avoiding defeat is very high.
- Hammarby have lost only 1 of 10 home league matches this season.
- Brommapojkarna have won only 3 of 10 away matches.
- Hammarby are unbeaten in their last 4 home matches across all competitions (3W, 1D).
BetBugs · Double ChanceHammarby or DrawEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hammarby's strong first-half performances at home give them an edge to lead at the break, though Brommapojkarna's resilience keeps the probability moderate.
- Hammarby led at half-time in 60% of their matches overall.
- Brommapojkarna trailed at half-time in only 20% of their matches overall.
- Hammarby scored first-half goals in 8 of their last 10 home matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerHammarbyEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Hammarby's ability to take early leads and maintain them at home supports a HT/FT double, though the probability is tempered by Brommapojkarna's occasional comebacks.
- Hammarby led at half-time in 60% of matches and won 55% of matches overall.
- Brommapojkarna trailed at half-time in 20% of matches and lost 35% of matches overall.
- Hammarby won 8 of 10 home matches, often controlling from the start.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoubleHammarby/HammarbyEstimated chance48%

Goals4 outcomes · top 62%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches and H2H history show a tendency for high-scoring games, and Hammarby's attacking strength at home supports over 2.5 goals.
- Hammarby home matches average 3.6 total goals (31 scored, 5 conceded in 10).
- Brommapojkarna away matches average 3.4 total goals (14 scored, 20 conceded in 10).
- Hammarby average 2.0 goals per match overall; Brommapojkarna average 1.3 goals per match but concede 1.5.
- Last 5 H2H meetings produced 3, 5, 5, 2, and 6 goals (average 4.2).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Brommapojkarna's ability to score away and Hammarby's occasional defensive lapses at home make both teams scoring a plausible outcome.
- Brommapojkarna have scored in 8 of their last 10 away matches.
- Hammarby have conceded in 4 of their last 6 home matches across all competitions.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, both teams scored in 4 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Hammarby's tendency to start strongly at home could lead to multiple first-half goals, but the probability is only moderate given Brommapojkarna's lower first-half scoring rate.
- Hammarby average 1.1 first-half goals per match overall; at home they scored 2+ first-half goals in 3 of their last 5 home matches.
- Brommapojkarna average 0.6 first-half goals per match overall and concede 0.7 first-half goals per match.
- Hammarby led at half-time in 60% of their matches overall.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second half often sees more goals as Hammarby push for a result and Brommapojkarna chase the game, making over 1.5 second-half goals slightly more likely than not.
- Hammarby average 0.9 second-half goals per match (2.0 total - 1.1 first-half).
- Brommapojkarna average 0.7 second-half goals per match (1.3 total - 0.6 first-half).
- Combined second-half average is 1.6 goals per match.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats3 outcomes · top 50%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches tend to produce around 10-11 corners, making over 9.5 a near coin-flip but slightly favorable given Hammarby's high corner count at home.
- Hammarby average 7.5 corners per match overall and 8.0 corners per home match.
- Brommapojkarna average 4.7 corners per match overall and 4.5 corners per away match.
- Combined average corners in Hammarby matches: 7.5 + opponent corners (approx 3.5) = 11.0; in Brommapojkarna matches: 4.7 + opponent corners (approx 6.0) = 10.7.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderOver 9.5Estimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Hammarby's high shot volume should push total shots on target above 8.5, but Brommapojkarna's low output makes this a borderline call.
- Hammarby average 8.1 shots on target per match overall and 8.5 per home match.
- Brommapojkarna average 3.5 shots on target per match overall and 3.2 per away match.
- Combined average shots on target in Hammarby matches: 8.1 + opponent (approx 3.0) = 11.1; in Brommapojkarna matches: 3.5 + opponent (approx 5.0) = 8.5.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The expected card count is close to 3.5, and while the derby-like intensity could push it over, the probability remains below 50%.
- Hammarby average 1.4 yellow cards per match overall and 1.5 per home match.
- Brommapojkarna average 1.5 yellow cards per match overall and 1.6 per away match.
- Combined average yellow cards: 2.9 per match; recent H2H meetings averaged 3.4 cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderOver 3.5Estimated chance45%