Major League SoccerFull time
Predictions gradedPre-match view
Dallas are unbeaten in six home matches and give up little at Toyota Stadium, but San Jose have drawn four of their last six and both teams arrive without their leading scorer.
Dallas to win or draw is the likeliest result, and the 1.25 for it — like 1.43 on over 2.5 goals and 1.20 on a first-half goal — is shorter than the form supports. No quoted price is worth taking.
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Other edges · 7
The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.
BetBugs 74% · Market 80%
Dallas have not lost at home in the tracked window and give up very little there, so the draw-or-win combination is the safest read on the result.
BetBugs 60% · Market 69.9%
The head-to-head series has been consistently open and both teams' season averages point to three or more goals.
BetBugs 72% · Market 83.3%
Both teams have meaningful first-half scoring and conceding numbers, and recent matches usually produced a goal before the break.
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.
The 1.25 price requires 80.0%, above our 74.0% estimate.
3 of 4 comparable goals projections involving FC Dallas matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 |  FC DallasPromotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals) | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 55-47 | 51 |
| 4 |  San Jose EarthquakesPromotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals) | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 52-42 | 48 |
