Major League SoccerFull timeFeatured

Predictions graded

San Jose Earthquakes3Portland Timbers1

HT 3–0Sun 27 Sept 2026, 02:30 Predictions graded

Predictions9–660%

Edges3–175%

PossPossession 46%–54%ShotsShots 13–18On targetOn target 8–6CornersCorners 5–9

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Sep 2026, 18:02 · Europe/Bucharest

San Jose are unbeaten in five and fifth in the West, while Portland have lost eight of twelve away games and won once in four under a new coach.

San Jose are the likelier winners, but 2.00 asks for more than their form justifies. Of the prices reviewed, only Under 2.5 goals at 2.9 offers anything; Over 2.5 at 1.36, both teams to score at 1.35 and a goal in the first half at 1.18 sit shorter than the record supports.

Context

Both clubs are fighting for the same Western Conference places, so the table gives this fixture real weight: a San Jose win tightens their hold on a playoff spot, while a Portland result pulls the Timbers back into the race. San Jose's edge is grounded in a five-match unbeaten run that included holding LAFC to a 2-2 draw in front of 40,518, while Portland arrive off a 1-0 home defeat by Atlanta. That Atlanta loss is a useful counterweight to the form line: the Timbers had 53.2% possession and 21 shots but no goal, so the result understates how they played.
- San Jose Earthquakes sit fifth in the Western Conference with 42 points ahead of the Sept. 26 home game against Portland (Sept. 20).
- The Quakes extended their unbeaten run to five with the 2-2 home draw against LAFC on Sept. 19, played before 40,518 at Levi's Stadium (Sept. 20).
- Portland Timbers have one win in four MLS matches since Martí Cifuentes took over as head coach (Aug. 30).
ReportedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 18:00 · Europe/Bucharest
Werner's return changes how San Jose can set up: he came off the bench against LAFC and immediately created a goal, so Arena can use him as a starter or as a late impact option in a front line already carrying the in-form Nikolas Tsakiris and Eduard Löwen. Against a Portland side that has shipped goals regularly, an extra finisher raises the Quakes' threat in the final third. The open question is his role and workload, as he has only just returned and a bench role or a managed 60-70 minutes is plausible, which would limit the effect.
- Werner was named on the bench for the Sept. 19 LAFC match and came on in the 62nd minute, creating Preston Judd's goal (Sept. 20).
- A Sept. 22 San Jose report says Werner 'is back from injury and making an impact' while Bruce Arena balances a 'newly loaded attack'.
- T. Werner started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 18:00 · Europe/Bucharest
Five goal contributions in four games, publicised by the club on Sept. 22, make Tsakiris San Jose's form attacker at the stage of the season when goals separate playoff teams from the rest. Portland have conceded in most of their recent league games, and a defence still integrating new signing Joel Waterman shapes as the obvious target for that form. The caveat is that the run has come against a mixed set of opponents, so it is one window of form rather than proof he will decide this game.
- The club states Nikolas Tsakiris has five goal contributions in his last four matches (Sept. 22).
- N. Tsakiris started 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups, totalling 429 minutes across 5 appearances.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 18:00 · Europe/Bucharest
San Jose have not lost since Löwen's late-August arrival from St. Louis, a five-match stretch the club has promoted as its midfield has settled. His presence coincides with the Quakes climbing into playoff position, giving Bruce Arena a creative reference point in the middle. That run is steadier than it is dominant, though: three of the five were draws, and the turnaround also reflects defensive adjustments, so the unbeaten record is a shared story rather than one signing's doing.
- The club says the Quakes 'remain undefeated since Edu Löwen joined' (Sept. 22).
- Löwen moved from St. Louis City to San Jose in late August 2026, where he became a teammate of Timo Werner (Aug. 27).
- E. Löwen started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups, totalling 404 minutes across 5 appearances.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 18:00 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.18fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 84.7%

−9.7ppshort

Goals before half-time have been common in both teams' recent matches.

Both Teams to ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Yes

1.35fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 74.1%

−6.1ppshort

Neither side stops the opposition often enough for one team to be shut out.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

San Jose Earthquakes

2.00fair 2.13

BetBugs 47% · Market 50%

−3.0ppshort

San Jose's strong late-season run and Portland's poor away record favour the home side.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.00
The read
San Jose's strong late-season run and Portland's poor away record favour the home side.
- San Jose are unbeaten in five league games (2 wins, 3 draws) and sit fifth in the Western Conference on 42 points
- Portland have 2 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats in 12 away league games this season
- San Jose have scored in 10 of 14 matches in the window; Portland have kept no clean sheet in 15
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSan Jose EarthquakesEstimated chance47%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
First halves between these teams have often been close before goals arrive later.
- Portland's first halves average 0.93 scored and 1.0 conceded
- San Jose's home first halves average 0.43 scored and 1.43 conceded
- Three of San Jose's last six matches were level at half-time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance41%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Portland do most of their scoring after the break while San Jose's second-half output is low.
- Portland average 1.33 second-half goals and concede 0.73
- Portland score 1.2 second-half goals per away match in the window
- San Jose concede 1.0 second-half goals per match, 1.14 at home
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonPortland TimbersEstimated chance34%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
San Jose's strong late-season run and Portland's poor away record favour the home side. Both teams score regularly and a tight, level game fits their recent results.
- San Jose are unbeaten in five league games (2 wins, 3 draws) and sit fifth in the Western Conference on 42 points
- Portland have 2 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats in 12 away league games this season
- Three of San Jose's last five matches were draws
- Portland's 15-match window contains 3 draws
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSan Jose Earthquakes or DrawEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
First halves between these teams have often been close before goals arrive later. Portland score early on their travels while San Jose concede regularly before half-time.
- Portland's first halves average 0.93 scored and 1.0 conceded
- San Jose's home first halves average 0.43 scored and 1.43 conceded
- Portland average 1.14 first-half goals per away match in this window
- San Jose concede 1.07 first-half goals per match and 1.43 at home
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostDraw or Portland TimbersEstimated chance71%

Goals3 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both defences concede regularly and Portland's games have been high scoring.
- San Jose's matches average 3.3 total goals; Portland's average 4.0
- Portland's last six matches produced 1, 3, 4, 9, 3 and 2 goals
- Both teams scored in 14 of Portland's 15 matches
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.35
The read
Neither side stops the opposition often enough for one team to be shut out.
- Portland both scored and conceded in 14 of 15 matches, with no clean sheet
- San Jose scored in 10 of 14 matches and conceded in 12 of 14
- San Jose conceded in 6 of 7 home matches in the window
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
San Jose rarely reach two goals, with most recent matches producing one or none.
- San Jose scored at most one goal in four of their last six matches
- San Jose average 1.14 goals in seven home matches in the window
- San Jose have scored 6 goals across their last six games
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostSan Jose Earthquakes under 1.5Estimated chance59%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Portland score at a rate that puts two goals within reach most weeks.
- Portland average 1.8 goals in their five away matches in this window and 2.27 overall
- San Jose concede 2.57 goals per home match in the window
- Portland scored 5 against Minnesota on Sept 6
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostPortland Timbers over 1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Goals before half-time have been common in both teams' recent matches.
- San Jose's matches average 1.86 first-half goals; Portland's average 1.93
- Only one of the last 12 matches involving these teams was 0-0 at half-time
- Portland have scored a first-half goal in four of their last six matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Portland's second-half scoring lifts the combined total toward one and a half.
- Portland's matches average 2.06 second-half goals; San Jose's average 1.43
- Portland's last six second halves produced 0, 2, 2, 4, 2 and 1 goals
- San Jose's home second halves average 1.85 goals combined
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' corner totals sit right around the line, with San Jose generating plenty at home.
- San Jose's home matches average 10.0 corners combined (6.29 for, 3.71 against)
- Portland's away matches in the window average 9.6 corners combined
- San Jose's last match produced 18 corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
San Jose's recent games have produced relatively few shots in total.
- San Jose's home matches average 24.9 shots combined
- San Jose's last six matches averaged 22.5 shots combined
- Portland's away matches in this window average 28.2 shots combined
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostUnder 27.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides put roughly five shots on target per game, which lifts the combined figure past the line.
- San Jose's home matches average 10.9 shots on target combined (5.14 for, 5.71 against)
- Portland's away matches in the window average 10.8 combined
- Both teams average close to 5 shots on target per match
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Portland's card counts sit below the line more often than not.
- Portland's matches average 3.93 total yellow cards
- Portland's last six matches had 4, 1, 5, 4, 5 and 5 total cards
- San Jose's last three matches had 2, 1 and 1 total yellows
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonUnder 4.5Estimated chance52%

Prediction history

San Jose Earthquakes: 3/4 recent goals projections matched

3 of 4 comparable goals projections involving San Jose Earthquakes matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for San Jose Earthquakes4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·Major League Soccer

San Jose Earthquakes1-1

LA Galaxy

BetBugsOver 2.5 goals·60%→2 total goals

Missed

26 Jul 2026

Major League Soccer

San Jose Earthquakes1-1

LA Galaxy

Over 2.5 goals

60%probability

2 total goals

Missed

23 Jul·Major League Soccer

San Jose Earthquakes0-4

Orlando City

BetBugsOver 2.5 goals·72%→4 total goals

Matched

23 Jul 2026

Major League Soccer

San Jose Earthquakes0-4

Orlando City

Over 2.5 goals

72%probability

4 total goals

Matched

24 May·Major League Soccer

Portland Timbers1-3

San Jose Earthquakes

BetBugsOver 2.5 goals·60%→4 total goals

Matched

24 May 2026

Major League Soccer

Portland Timbers1-3

San Jose Earthquakes

Over 2.5 goals

60%probability

4 total goals

Matched

17 May·Major League Soccer

San Jose Earthquakes2-3

FC Dallas

BetBugsOver 2.5 goals·60%→5 total goals

Matched

17 May 2026

Major League Soccer

San Jose Earthquakes2-3

FC Dallas

Over 2.5 goals

60%probability

5 total goals

Matched

Head-to-Head

4W · 1D · 0W

W1-3Portland TimbersvSan Jose EarthquakesMay 24, 2026MAJ

W3-2San Jose EarthquakesvPortland TimbersFeb 11, 2026FRI

D1-1Portland TimbersvSan Jose EarthquakesJun 14, 2025MAJ

W1-0San Jose EarthquakesvPortland TimbersMay 21, 2025US

W4-1San Jose EarthquakesvPortland TimbersMay 4, 2025MAJ

San Jose Earthquakes unbeaten in 5 meetings3.4 goals/game avg

League Table

Major League Soccer 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
5	San Jose Earthquakes Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	26	12	6	8	46-38	42	DWWDD
9	Portland Timbers Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)	26	9	5	12	47-48	32	LLDWL