Colorado Rapids11 – 2FC Dallas2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Colorado's strong home H2H edge (Dallas winless in 12 straight MLS trips) is offset by their congested schedule and poor recent form, while Dallas arrive fresher but with a mediocre away record, making a draw the most balanced outcome.

• Colorado Rapids home record: 3W-0D-2L (5 matches), but last 5 overall form: 1W-1D-3L
• FC Dallas away record: 3W-0D-2L (5 matches), last 5 overall form: 3W-0D-2L
• H2H last 5 meetings: 2 Colorado wins, 2 draws, 1 Dallas win; last meeting at Colorado: 3-3 draw (Mar 2025)
• Colorado have a U.S. Open Cup quarterfinal on May 20, creating a short turnaround and potential squad rotation

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Colorado's historical home dominance over Dallas (12-match unbeaten run) and strong home scoring (14 goals in 5 games) make them unlikely to lose, despite their recent overall form dip.

• Colorado Rapids home record: 3W-0D-2L, averaging 2.8 goals scored per home match
• FC Dallas away record: 3W-0D-2L, but have not won at Colorado in MLS since 2014
• H2H at Colorado: Colorado unbeaten in last 5 home meetings (3W, 2D)
• Colorado's last 5 home matches: 3 wins, 2 losses (both losses by 1 goal)

BetBugs · Double ChancelostColorado Rapids or DrawEstimated chance65%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Both teams have a high frequency of first-half draws (Colorado 27%, Dallas 47%), and the match context of a playoff-line game may lead to a cautious start, making a level half-time score likely.

• Colorado Rapids: led at half-time in 40% of matches, trailed in 33%, drawn in 27%
• FC Dallas: led at half-time in 20% of matches, trailed in 33%, drawn in 47%
• Last 5 H2H: half-time draws in 2 of 5 meetings
• Colorado home first-half record: 2 leads, 1 draw, 2 deficits in 5 matches

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both teams' season-long corner totals hover around 10 per game, and Dallas' away matches see elevated opponent corners (7.8), pushing the expected total above 9.5.

• Colorado Rapids average 4.9 corners per game, concede 4.9 opponent corners (total 9.8)
• FC Dallas average 4.6 corners per game, concede 5.5 opponent corners (total 10.1)
• Last 5 H2H: total corners averaged 9.2 (range 7-12)
• Colorado home matches: 5.2 corners for, 4.8 against (total 10.0); Dallas away: 5.0 for, 7.8 against (total 12.8)

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both teams generate and allow a combined ~9 shots on target per game, and home/away splits slightly exceed the 8.5 line, suggesting a moderate likelihood of surpassing it.

• Colorado Rapids average 4.4 shots on target per game, concede 4.5 opponent shots on target (total 8.9)
• FC Dallas average 4.9 shots on target per game, concede 4.1 opponent shots on target (total 9.0)
• Last 5 H2H: shots on target data unavailable, but total shots averaged 24.4 per match
• Colorado home: 5.2 shots on target for, 4.0 against (total 9.2); Dallas away: 5.4 for, 3.6 against (total 9.0)