Colorado Rapids1San Jose Earthquakes1

HT 1–0Sun 11 Oct 2026, 01:30 Predictions graded

Predictions9–660%

Edges2–340%

PossPossession 63%–37%ShotsShots 13–9On targetOn target 10–3CornersCorners 6–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 8 Oct 2026, 01:08 · Europe/Bucharest

A tight one in Commerce City: Colorado's home record — nine wins from 13 league matches, six clean sheets in nine — meets a San Jose side unbeaten in six and on 45 points.

San Jose avoiding defeat is the likeliest single result, and that at 1.91 offers something, as do San Jose to win at 3.5, both teams to score "No" at 2.4, Under 2.5 goals at 2.4 and a goalless first half at 3.6. Colorado's 1.91 home win does not.

Context

San Jose are unbeaten in their last six league games and have climbed to third in the Western Conference after a nine-game winless run through August and early September. Arena, in charge since 2025, has been credited locally with steadying the backline by repositioning Dave Romney and releasing Niko Tsakiris ahead of it. That matters here because Colorado have repeatedly conceded after taking the lead, exactly the game state San Jose have learned to punish. The counterweight is that the Quakes' own coverage still flags a scoring-drought risk, so their position rests on narrow results rather than control.
- San Jose are unbeaten in six league matches and sit third in the Western Conference as of 6 October 2026.
- San Jose's own account posted on 7 October that 'the playoff picture is heating up'.
- The Quakes were third on 45 points after beating Portland 3-1 on 26 September.
ConfirmedSources checked 8 Oct 2026, 01:07 · Europe/Bucharest
Colorado entered the October window holding a Western Conference playoff place, but lost 3-2 at LA Galaxy on 27 September after leading 2-0, a week after surrendering a two-goal lead against Seattle. Local coverage framed the Galaxy match as one to 'bookmark' if the Rapids miss the postseason and called the preceding draw two points dropped in the race. A home fixture against the conference's third-placed side is therefore a genuine swing game rather than a routine October date. The standings are congested, though, so a single home win would restore much of the margin they have given away.
- Colorado lost 3-2 at LA Galaxy on 27 September after leading 2-0, a second straight match conceding from a two-goal advantage.
- Local coverage recorded that the Rapids were seventh in the Western Conference and inside the playoff line in late September.
- Burgundy Wave called the Galaxy defeat a game to 'bookmark' if Colorado miss the postseason.
ConfirmedSources checked 8 Oct 2026, 01:07 · Europe/Bucharest
Tsakiris is a 21-year-old left-footed No. 10 whom Bruce Arena has released from positional duty, and that freedom produced eight league assists and a place on the United States' preliminary autumn roster. Analysts who broke down film with him argue the licence itself, not just the player, drives the output. For this fixture it means Colorado's midfield must decide whether to follow a creator who drifts across the whole attacking line. He has not yet made a senior international squad, so the wider attention has not changed how San Jose use him.
- Backheeled described the 21-year-old as 'thriving in a free role for Bruce Arena' and noted he was on the United States' preliminary autumn roster on 7 October 2026.
- Tsakiris was listed with eight domestic assists in late September 2026.
- N. Tsakiris started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ReportedSources checked 8 Oct 2026, 01:07 · Europe/Bucharest
Wells has said publicly he is trying to 'unlock' Aaronson's No. 10 qualities and framed him as the man who must 'fill that void' in quality and leadership after designated player Rafael Navarro left. Aaronson responded with the penalty that beat CF Montréal and a run that reached five goal contributions in four league games by 27 September. Colorado's attacking structure now routes through him, so San Jose's backline will be set up to cut his supply. His individual numbers have nonetheless outrun the team's results, with the Rapids still dropping points across that stretch.
- Colorado coach Matt Wells said Aaronson had to 'fill that void' in quality and leadership after Rafael Navarro's departure, speaking to CBS Sports on 16 September 2026.
- Burgundy Wave recorded Aaronson's fifth goal contribution in four league games on 27 September 2026.
ConfirmedSources checked 8 Oct 2026, 01:07 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Colorado's home split is the strongest in the evidence, with six clean sheets in nine home matches, while San Jose's away record is good but not flawless.
- Colorado's league home record this season is 9 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses with 25 goals scored and 12 conceded
- The Rapids kept six clean sheets in nine home league matches tracked and concede 0.89 goals per home game
- San Jose's away league record is 7 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses with 24 scored and 17 conceded in 13
- Colorado sit eighth in the West on 36 points; San Jose are top four on 45
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostColorado RapidsEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
First-half scoring on both sides is modest enough that going in level is the single most likely half-time state.
- Colorado average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.43 conceded across tracked matches
- San Jose average 0.93 first-half goals scored and 1.0 conceded
- San Jose were level at half-time in two of their last six matches
- Half-time scorelines in the recent meetings have varied between 1-0 and 3-0
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half output from both sides is limited enough that the half often ends level.
- Colorado average 0.78 second-half goals scored and 0.56 conceded at home
- San Jose average 0.14 second-half goals scored and 0.86 conceded away
- Three of San Jose's last six matches had one or no second-half goals
- Colorado's recent second halves have swung between goalless and three-goal halves
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Colorado's home split is the strongest in the evidence, with six clean sheets in nine home matches, while San Jose's away record is good but not flawless. San Jose have the better season record and stronger current run, and their away scoring rate is high for a visiting side.
- Colorado's league home record this season is 9 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses with 25 goals scored and 12 conceded
- The Rapids kept six clean sheets in nine home league matches tracked and concede 0.89 goals per home game
- San Jose are unbeaten in six league matches and sit on 45 points, above Colorado's 36
- The Quakes' away league record is 7 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses with 24 goals scored in 13
BetBugs · Double ChancelostColorado Rapids or San Jose EarthquakesEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Colorado start home matches with a modest but regular first-half goal threat while San Jose concede early away from home. First-half scoring on both sides is modest enough that going in level is the single most likely half-time state.
- Colorado average 0.44 first-half goals at home and concede 0.33
- San Jose concede 0.71 first-half goals in away league matches
- Colorado average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.43 conceded across tracked matches
- San Jose average 0.93 first-half goals scored and 1.0 conceded
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonColorado Rapids or DrawEstimated chance73%

Goals5 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams score at a decent rate in their current form, and San Jose's away matches have been high-scoring.
- San Jose's 13 away league matches have produced 24 goals for and 17 against
- Colorado's home league matches average 1.92 goals for and 0.92 against
- Four of Colorado's last six matches had three or more goals
- Recent meetings include 2-0, 3-2 and 2-3 scorelines between these teams
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
San Jose score regularly and Colorado's recent matches have featured goals at both ends.
- Both teams scored in 9 of San Jose's 14 tracked matches
- Both teams scored in 4 of San Jose's last 6 matches
- Colorado conceded in 4 of their last 6 matches
- San Jose have kept one clean sheet in seven away league matches in the tracked window
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Colorado's home scoring average sits just above one goal a game, so a single goal or none is the more likely outcome.
- Colorado average 1.22 goals per home match tracked (8 in 9)
- Colorado were held to one goal or none in three of their last six matches
- San Jose kept one clean sheet in seven away league matches tracked
- Colorado's home matches tracked produced 8 goals in 9 fixtures
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonColorado Rapids under 1.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Colorado's home defence has limited opponents to a goal or less often enough to favour the under.
- Colorado kept six clean sheets in nine home matches tracked
- Colorado concede 0.89 goals per home match
- San Jose average 0.14 second-half goals in away league matches
- Two of San Jose's last six matches produced one goal or none
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonSan Jose Earthquakes under 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Recent matches for both sides have almost always included a goal before half-time, and the combined first-half averages support that.
- Colorado average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.43 conceded across tracked matches
- San Jose average 0.93 first-half goals scored and 1.0 conceded
- Every one of Colorado's last six matches had a first-half goal
- Five of San Jose's last six matches had a first-half goal
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
San Jose's away second-half scoring is minimal, which keeps many second halves below two goals.
- San Jose average 0.14 second-half goals scored in away league matches
- Colorado concede 0.56 second-half goals at home
- San Jose's last six matches averaged 1.0 second-half goals
- Three of San Jose's last six matches had one or no second-half goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined corner counts in both teams' relevant splits sit below the line, especially with Colorado limiting opponent corners at home.
- Colorado's home matches tracked average 8.6 corners combined
- San Jose average 5.0 corners in away league matches and allow 4.2
- San Jose had four or fewer corners in three of their last six matches
- Colorado's home opponents average just 2.5 corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 10.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Colorado's home matches have edged just below this line, and they restrict opponents' shot volume.
- Colorado's home shots plus opponent shots average 25.6 per match
- San Jose manage 12.2 shots and allow 12.2 in away league matches
- Colorado allow only 8.25 shots per home match
- Two of San Jose's last three matches had 24 or fewer combined shots
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonUnder 26.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Colorado's home matches have produced fewer combined shots on target than the line requires.
- Colorado's home matches tracked average 7.75 combined shots on target
- Colorado allow only 2.75 shots on target per home match
- San Jose average 2.6 shots on target across their tracked matches
- Four of San Jose's last six matches had combined on-target totals of 12 or more
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Card counts for these two sides usually land below five, with San Jose's opponents rarely booked heavily.
- San Jose's opponents average 1.75 yellow cards in tracked matches
- Three of San Jose's last six matches had three or fewer total cards
- Colorado's tracked opponents average 2.08 yellow cards
- Colorado's average of 2.31 yellow cards per match is modest
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonUnder 4.5Estimated chance52%

Head-to-Head

3W · 0D · 2W

W2-0Colorado RapidsvSan Jose EarthquakesMay 21, 2026US

L0-2Colorado RapidsvSan Jose EarthquakesMay 11, 2025MAJ

W1-2San Jose EarthquakesvColorado RapidsMar 16, 2025MAJ

L2-3Colorado RapidsvSan Jose EarthquakesMay 12, 2024MAJ

W0-3San Jose EarthquakesvColorado RapidsApr 14, 2024MAJ

Colorado Rapids: 2 clean sheets3 goals/game avg

League Table

Major League Soccer 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
8	Colorado Rapids Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)	27	11	3	13	38-38	36	LDWDL
4	San Jose Earthquakes Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	27	13	6	8	49-39	45	WDWWD