Major League SoccerFull time

Predictions graded

Houston Dynamo0San Jose Earthquakes0

HT 0–0Sun 30 Aug 2026, 00:30 Predictions graded

Predictions3–925%

Edges1–614%

PossPossession 43%–57%ShotsShots 8–10On targetOn target 0–4CornersCorners 6–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Aug 2026, 16:44 · Europe/Bucharest

Houston Dynamo are strong favorites at home against a slumping San Jose side, but the market offers no value on the home win or common goals markets.

The only positive edge is on over 1.5 second-half goals (implied 50% vs our 55%), making it the top actionable bet. Avoid backing Houston outright or over 2.5 total goals due to negative value.

Context

Houston Dynamo are second in the Western Conference with 38 points from 21 matches. Their home record is 7 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses.
At home, Houston has allowed just 7 goals in 10 games, an average of 0.7 per match. That defensive solidity could limit San Jose, who have scored 39 goals overall but have struggled recently with four consecutive defeats. However, San Jose's away record is decent with 6 wins in 10 road games, so they can still threaten.
- Houston's home record: 7 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses, 13 goals for, 7 goals against in 10 matches.
- Houston's recent home form: won 1-0 vs Los Angeles Galaxy on 2026-08-16, won 3-0 vs Austin on 2026-07-26, drew 1-1 vs DC United on 2026-07-23.
San Jose midfielder Timo Werner is one of the team's two seven-assist leaders and started four of the five recent fixtures with available lineups.
Werner is ruled out with a lower-body issue, so San Jose must replace a current chance-creation contributor in its attacking selection. The team's other seven-assist leader remains available, but the loss removes a regular starter from the attacking group.
- MLS lists Timo Werner as out with a lower-body issue for Matchday 23.
- Houston's official preview identifies Werner as one of San Jose's two seven-assist leaders.
- T. Werner started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Aug 2026, 10:50 · Europe/BucharestMLS Player Status Report: Matchday 23www.mlssoccer.com · 29 Aug 2026Houston Dynamo match previewwww.houstondynamofc.com · 28 Aug 2026
San Jose Earthquakes are fourth in the Western Conference with 33 points from 21 matches. Their recent form is LLLLD.
San Jose have lost their last four league games, including a 5-1 home defeat to Minnesota United on 2026-08-23 and a 3-1 home loss to St. Louis City on 2026-08-16. They have conceded 13 goals in those four matches, showing defensive problems. Houston, with their strong home record, could exploit this.
- San Jose's last four MLS results: L 1-5 vs Minnesota United (2026-08-23), L 0-1 at Los Angeles Galaxy (2026-08-20), L 1-3 vs St. Louis City (2026-08-16), L 2-4 at FC Cincinnati (2026-08-01).
- San Jose conceded 13 goals in those four matches.
Houston Dynamo are second in the Western Conference with 38 points from 21 matches. Their recent form is LWWWW.
Houston have won four of their last five MLS matches, with the only loss coming away at St. Louis City on 2026-08-23. In that run, they kept clean sheets against Vancouver Whitecaps, Los Angeles Galaxy, and New England Revolution. This form suggests they are well-prepared to face a struggling San Jose team.
- Houston's last five MLS results: L 1-2 at St. Louis City (2026-08-23), W 1-0 at Vancouver Whitecaps (2026-08-20), W 1-0 vs Los Angeles Galaxy (2026-08-16), W 2-0 at New England Revolution (2026-08-08), W 2-0 at Sporting Kansas City (2026-08-02).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Houston Dynamo

1.70fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 59%

0.0ppshort

Houston's strong home form (7W-1D-2L) and San Jose's current slump (LLLD) support the home side, but the odds already reflect this and offer no positive edge.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Houston Dynamo or Draw

1.21fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 83%

−3.0ppshort

Houston's unbeaten home rate of 80% and San Jose's poor form make an away win unlikely, but the odds are priced accordingly with no cushion.

Asian HandicaplostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Houston Dynamo -0.5

1.70fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 59%

−4.0ppshort

Houston's home win rate of 70% and San Jose's current poor form support the handicap, but the odds are fair and offer no value.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.45fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 69%

0.0ppshort

H2H trend shows both teams scored in 4 of last 5 meetings, but odds imply 69% probability, above our 60% estimate.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.45fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 69%

0.0ppshort

High-scoring H2H history and San Jose's leaky defense support over 2.5 goals, but odds imply 69% probability, far above our 55% estimate.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.18fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 84.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to score or concede in the first half, making over 0.5 likely, but odds imply 84.7% probability, well above our 70% estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Houston's strong home form and superior recent results, combined with San Jose's poor current form, make them clear favorites.
- Houston home record: 7W-1D-2L, 13 goals for, 7 against in 10 matches
- Houston last 5 form: LWWWW (12 points from 15)
- San Jose away record: 6W-1D-3L, but recent form LLLLD
- H2H: Houston won 2 of last 3 home meetings vs San Jose
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostHouston DynamoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Houston's strong home record and San Jose's slump suggest a low probability of an away win.
- Houston home unbeaten rate: 80% (8 of 10)
- San Jose away losses: 3 in 10, but 4 straight defeats overall
- H2H: San Jose won only 1 of last 5 meetings
BetBugs · Double ChancewonHouston Dynamo or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Houston's home advantage and San Jose's poor form support a handicap win for the hosts.
- Houston home win rate: 70%
- San Jose away loss rate: 30%, but current form poor
- H2H: Houston won 2 of last 3 home meetings
BetBugs · Asian HandicaplostHouston Dynamo -0.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Houston's tendency to lead at the break and San Jose's slow starts give the hosts a slight edge.
- Houston leading at half time in 47% of matches
- San Jose trailing at half time in 40% of matches
- Houston first half goals: 0.8 per game, San Jose first half goals conceded: 1.1
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostHouston DynamoEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Houston often leads at half and wins at home, but the probability is moderate due to variance.
- Houston home win rate: 70%
- Houston leading at half time in 47% of matches
- San Jose trailing at half time in 40% of matches
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostHouston Dynamo / Houston DynamoEstimated chance30%

Goals1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Historical H2H trend and both teams' scoring records indicate a good chance both find the net.
- H2H: both teams scored in 4 of last 5 meetings
- San Jose away: 20 goals for, 14 against in 10 matches
- Houston home: 13 goals for, 7 against in 10 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
High-scoring H2H history and San Jose's leaky defense support over 2.5 goals.
- H2H: last 5 meetings averaged 3.8 goals per game
- San Jose away matches: 3.4 goals per game average
- Houston home matches: 2.0 goals per game average
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Houston's solid home defense gives them a chance, but San Jose's away scoring record makes it uncertain.
- Houston home clean sheets: 4 in 10 matches
- San Jose failed to score in 2 of last 5 away matches
- Houston conceded only 7 goals in 10 home games
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSan Jose Earthquakes not to scoreEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score or concede in the first half, making over 0.5 likely.
- Houston first half goals: 0.8 per game average
- San Jose first half goals conceded: 1.1 per game average
- H2H: first half goals in 4 of last 5 meetings
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves have been productive in this matchup, and San Jose's defense often weakens late.
- H2H: second half goals in all last 5 meetings
- San Jose concedes heavily in second halves (2.3 goals against per game overall)
- Houston scores 0.7 second half goals per game
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, but the total is close to the line.
- Houston average corners: 3.5 per game, opponent corners: 5.4
- San Jose average corners: 5.4 per game, opponent corners: 5.4
- Combined average corners in matches: 8.9
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a tendency to pick up cards, making over 3.5 likely.
- Houston average yellow cards: 2.2 per game
- San Jose average yellow cards: 2.7 per game
- Combined average yellow cards: 4.9
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 59% leaves no cushion vs our 55% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

3W · 1D · 1W

L1-2Houston DynamovSan Jose EarthquakesAug 24, 2025MAJ

D3-3San Jose EarthquakesvHouston DynamoMay 25, 2025MAJ

W0-1San Jose EarthquakesvHouston DynamoJul 18, 2024MAJ

W2-1Houston DynamovSan Jose EarthquakesMar 31, 2024MAJ

W4-1Houston DynamovSan Jose EarthquakesJun 22, 2023MAJ

3.6 goals/game avg

League Table

Major League Soccer 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
2	Houston Dynamo Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	21	12	2	7	30-26	38	LWWWW
4	San Jose Earthquakes Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	21	10	3	8	39-33	33	LLLLD