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Predictions graded

San Jose Earthquakes2Los Angeles FC2

HT 0–1Sat 19 Sept 2026, 23:30 Predictions graded

Predictions7–558%

Edges4–180%

PossPossession 69%–31%ShotsShots 21–3On targetOn target 9–2CornersCorners 15–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Sep 2026, 18:30 · Europe/Bucharest

The Levi's Stadium derby is a tight contest with no clear betting edge on the match winner or double chance.

The standout value is Over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.15 (model 55% vs implied 46.5%). Avoid Over 2.5 goals and BTTS Yes, as the market heavily overprices both.

Context

San Jose Earthquakes are fourth in the Western Conference with 41 points from 25 matches.
They beat Houston Dynamo 1-0 at home on September 13 and won 3-2 at San Diego on September 10. Those results show San Jose can win tight games, but their home record is only 5-2-5, so home advantage is not a strong factor.
- San Jose beat Houston Dynamo 1-0 at home on 2026-09-13.
- San Jose won 3-2 at San Diego on 2026-09-10.
- San Jose is 4th in the Western Conference with 41 points, one point above LAFC.
San Jose will host LAFC at Levi's Stadium rather than PayPal Park, with kickoff at 4:30 p.m. PT.
The one-off venue and larger expected crowd alter the home environment for this derby. Previous PRIME TIME matches at Levi's drew over 43,000, including 50,978 in 2025, so the atmosphere and pitch dimensions may differ from San Jose's usual home ground.
- San Jose announced that it will host LAFC at Levi’s Stadium on September 19, with kickoff at 4:30 p.m. PT.
- The club says each of the previous three PRIME TIME matches at Levi’s exceeded 43,000 spectators; the 2025 edition drew 50,978.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Sep 2026, 18:29 · Europe/BucharestSan Jose Earthquakes: PRIME TIME returns to Levi’s Stadiumwww.sjearthquakes.com · 27 Jan 2026
Los Angeles FC are sixth in the Western Conference with 40 points from 26 matches.
Their away record is 3-5-5, and they lost 3-1 at Sporting Kansas City on September 13. That away form is a concern against a San Jose side that has won two straight, though LAFC did beat San Jose 4-1 in their last meeting in April.
- LAFC lost 3-1 at Sporting Kansas City on 2026-09-13.
- LAFC's away record is 3 wins, 5 draws, 5 losses in 13 matches.
- LAFC beat San Jose 4-1 at home on 2026-04-19.
LAFC midfielder Igor Jesus made his first appearance since August 2025 in the September 9 win over Red Bull New York, entering in the 60th minute.
His return restores a central-midfield option for LAFC after a year-long knee recovery. He started only 1 of the last 5 fixtures with available lineups, while M. Delgado started 3 in that role, so his involvement is still being managed and his selection for San Jose is not guaranteed.
- Jesus entered LAFC’s September 9 win over Red Bull New York in the 60th minute, his first appearance since a knee injury on August 23, 2025.
- LAFC’s September 12 preview described his central-midfield return as important during the club’s current road stretch.
- Igor Jesus started 1 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- M. Delgado started in the same position in 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when Igor Jesus did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Sep 2026, 18:29 · Europe/BucharestLAFC: Recap, LAFC 2-0 Red Bull New Yorkwww.lafc.com · 9 Sep 2026LAFC: Preview, Sporting Kansas City vs. LAFCwww.lafc.com · 11 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Los Angeles FC

2.15fair 2.38

BetBugs 42% · Market 46.5%

0.0ppshort

LAFC's stronger defensive metrics and better recent H2H edge outweigh San Jose's home advantage, making an away win the most likely single outcome.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Los Angeles FC

1.40fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 71.4%

0.0ppshort

San Jose's inconsistent home form and LAFC's solid away resilience make the double chance for the away side a strong value proposition.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.44fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 69.4%

0.0ppshort

Our model gives only 55% for over 2.5, but the odds imply 69.4%, so the market is pricing in a high-scoring game far beyond our evidence.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.40fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 71.4%

0.0ppshort

Our BTTS estimate of 58% is well below the implied 71.4%, so the odds do not offer value despite both teams' scoring records.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
LAFC's stronger defensive metrics and better recent H2H edge outweigh San Jose's home advantage, making an away win the most likely single outcome.
- LAFC away record: 3W-5D-5L, 16 goals for, 16 against in 13 away matches.
- San Jose home record: 5W-2D-5L, 20 goals for, 19 against in 12 home matches.
- Last 5 H2H: LAFC won 2, San Jose won 1, 2 draws; most recent MLS meeting LAFC won 4-1 at home.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostLos Angeles FCEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
San Jose's inconsistent home form and LAFC's solid away resilience make the double chance for the away side a strong value proposition.
- San Jose home win rate: 42% (5/12).
- LAFC away loss rate: 38% (5/13).
- Combined draw probability from recent form: San Jose 20%, LAFC 27%.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Los Angeles FCEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown a tendency to be level at halftime in their respective splits, making a draw at the break a reasonable prediction.
- San Jose first half home record: 27% leading, 40% trailing, 33% level.
- LAFC first half away record: 47% leading, 27% trailing, 26% level.
- Combined probability of level at half: approximately 30%.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at both half-time and full-time is a low-probability but plausible outcome given both teams' tendency to share points.
- San Jose home draw rate: 17% (2/12).
- LAFC away draw rate: 38% (5/13).
- Combined probability of full-time draw: approximately 25%.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance15%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown attacking intent in recent meetings and San Jose's home games trend high-scoring, supporting over 2.5 goals.
- San Jose home matches average 3.25 total goals (20 for, 19 against in 12).
- LAFC away matches average 2.46 total goals (16 for, 16 against in 13).
- Last 5 H2H meetings produced 3, 0, 6, 3, 2 goals (average 2.8).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records in their respective home/away splits, making BTTS a likely outcome.
- San Jose scored in 10 of 12 home matches (83%).
- LAFC scored in 10 of 13 away matches (77%).
- Both teams scored in 3 of last 5 H2H meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined first-half scoring rates suggest a moderate chance of exceeding 1.5 goals, though the edge is not strong.
- San Jose first half goals per home match: 0.9 for, 1.1 against (total 2.0).
- LAFC first half goals per away match: 0.9 for, 0.5 against (total 1.4).
- Combined first half average: 1.7 goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves tend to be more open as both teams push for results, with San Jose's home matches averaging over 2 goals after the break.
- San Jose second half goals per home match: 1.1 for, 1.0 against (total 2.1).
- LAFC second half goals per away match: 0.7 for, 0.4 against (total 1.1).
- Combined second half average: 1.6 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
LAFC's solid defensive record on the road gives them a moderate chance of shutting out San Jose, though the home side's scoring consistency reduces confidence.
- LAFC kept clean sheets in 4 of 13 away matches (31%).
- San Jose failed to score in 2 of 12 home matches (17%).
- LAFC's away goals against average: 1.23 per match.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostSan Jose Earthquakes not to scoreEstimated chance25%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a high number of corners, especially LAFC away from home, making over 9.5 corners a plausible outcome.
- San Jose average corners per home match: 5.0 for, 4.8 against (total 9.8).
- LAFC average corners per away match: 7.1 for, 4.5 against (total 11.6).
- Combined average corners: 10.7.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined shots on target averages hover around the 8.5 line, making this a coin-flip market with slight lean to over.
- San Jose average shots on target per home match: 4.5 for, 4.8 against (total 9.3).
- LAFC average shots on target per away match: 4.9 for, 3.5 against (total 8.4).
- Combined average shots on target: 8.85.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined card averages are slightly below the 4.5 line, but the rivalry context could push the total higher.
- San Jose average yellow cards per home match: 2.8 for, 1.8 against (total 4.6).
- LAFC average yellow cards per away match: 1.5 for, 2.2 against (total 3.7).
- Combined average yellow cards: 4.15.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance48%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 46.5% leaves no cushion vs our 42% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

San Jose Earthquakes have been highly reliable when projected over 2.5 goals

San Jose Earthquakes have fulfilled 3 of 4 over 2.5 goals projections, with an average estimated probability of 63% and an expected 2.5 fulfilled predictions. Their matched projections averaged 64% probability, while the single miss was at 60%, indicating stronger confidence in successful outcomes. The current prediction of 55% sits below the historical range of 60-72%, suggesting the model is less confident than in recent comparable matches.

Recent evidence for San Jose Earthquakes4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·Major League Soccer

San Jose Earthquakes1-1

LA Galaxy

BetBugsOver 2.5 goals·60%→2 total goals

Missed

26 Jul 2026

Major League Soccer

San Jose Earthquakes1-1

LA Galaxy

Over 2.5 goals

60%probability

2 total goals

Missed

23 Jul·Major League Soccer

San Jose Earthquakes0-4

Orlando City

BetBugsOver 2.5 goals·72%→4 total goals

Matched

23 Jul 2026

Major League Soccer

San Jose Earthquakes0-4

Orlando City

Over 2.5 goals

72%probability

4 total goals

Matched

24 May·Major League Soccer

Portland Timbers1-3

San Jose Earthquakes

BetBugsOver 2.5 goals·60%→4 total goals

Matched

24 May 2026

Major League Soccer

Portland Timbers1-3

San Jose Earthquakes

Over 2.5 goals

60%probability

4 total goals

Matched

17 May·Major League Soccer

San Jose Earthquakes2-3

FC Dallas

BetBugsOver 2.5 goals·60%→5 total goals

Matched

17 May 2026

Major League Soccer

San Jose Earthquakes2-3

FC Dallas

Over 2.5 goals

60%probability

5 total goals

Matched

Head-to-Head

1W · 2D · 2W

W1-4Los Angeles FCvSan Jose EarthquakesApr 19, 2026MAJ

D0-0Los Angeles FCvSan Jose EarthquakesFeb 4, 2026FRI

L2-4San Jose EarthquakesvLos Angeles FCSep 14, 2025MAJ

L2-1Los Angeles FCvSan Jose EarthquakesApr 13, 2025MAJ

D1-1Los Angeles FCvSan Jose EarthquakesJan 25, 2025FRI

3.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Major League Soccer 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
4	San Jose Earthquakes Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	25	12	5	8	44-36	41	WWDDL
6	Los Angeles FC Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	26	11	7	8	41-27	40	LWDDD