Austin1San Jose Earthquakes1

HT 0–1Sun 6 Sept 2026, 00:30 Predictions graded

Predictions4–640%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 53%–47%ShotsShots 16–10On targetOn target 3–2CornersCorners 7–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Sep 2026, 05:51 · Europe/Bucharest

Austin's squad has been weakened by two confirmed departures, while San Jose may deploy a new three-man back line.

Despite trends favoring goals and both teams scoring, the betting market offers no value on Austin, Over 2.5, BTTS Yes, or first-half Over 0.5, as implied probabilities exceed our estimates. The top actionable takeaway is to avoid these popular markets due to negative edges.

Context

San Jose Earthquakes are 4th in the Western Conference with 34 points, but their recent form has dipped.
They have lost four of their last five league matches, conceding 13 goals in that span. The 5-1 home loss to Minnesota United on August 23 exposed defensive issues. Austin may look to exploit this, but San Jose's away record is solid with six wins in 11 road games, so the poor form may not fully carry over.
- San Jose lost 5-1 at home to Minnesota United FC on August 23, 2026.
- They lost 1-0 away to Los Angeles Galaxy on August 20, 2026.
- They lost 3-1 at home to St. Louis City on August 16, 2026.
Austin are 14th in the Western Conference with 24 points, but their home form has been more competitive.
They beat Seattle Sounders 3-1 at home on July 23 and drew 1-1 with Philadelphia Union on August 23. Their only recent home loss was 2-1 to FC Dallas on August 17. This home comfort may help them against San Jose, who have lost three of their last four away matches.
- Austin beat Seattle Sounders 3-1 at home on July 23, 2026.
- Austin drew 1-1 with Philadelphia Union at home on August 23, 2026.
- Austin lost 2-1 to FC Dallas at home on August 17, 2026.
Austin forward J. Nelson made 13 MLS appearances, including seven starts, this season before his transfer to Bolton Wanderers.
His departure removes a forward option from Austin's attacking rotation for this match. The home side will need to adjust its forward depth without Nelson available.
- Austin FC announced an agreement to transfer forward Jayden Nelson to Bolton Wanderers.
- Austin stated that Nelson made 13 MLS appearances, including seven starts, this season.
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Sep 2026, 05:49 · Europe/BucharestAustin FC transfer announcementwww.austinfc.com · 26 Aug 2026
San Jose Earthquakes have collected 20 points from 11 away games, the third-best away record in the Western Conference.
Their away wins include a 3-1 victory at Portland Timbers on May 24 and a 4-2 win at Minnesota United in the US Open Cup on April 29. However, they have lost their last two away league matches, so this strength may be fading.
- San Jose have won 6, drawn 2, and lost 3 in 11 away matches this season.
- They beat Portland Timbers 3-1 away on May 24, 2026.
- They lost 1-0 away to Los Angeles Galaxy on August 20, 2026.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Austin

2.15fair 2.38

BetBugs 42% · Market 46.5%

0.0ppshort

Austin's home form and San Jose's poor recent run give the hosts a slight edge, but the market price already reflects that.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Austin or Draw

1.40fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 71.4%

0.0ppshort

Austin avoiding defeat is likely but the odds offer no cushion over our estimate.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.48fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 67.6%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' recent matches and H2H history show high-scoring tendencies, but the odds already price in a high probability.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.45fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 69%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have consistent scoring records, but the odds are too short to offer value.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.20fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 83.3%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to concede first-half goals, but the odds are extremely short and offer no value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Austin's home edge and San Jose's poor recent form give the hosts a slight advantage, though San Jose's strong away record keeps this close.
- Austin home record: 4W-3D-3L, 14 goals for, 10 against in 10 matches
- San Jose away record: 6W-2D-3L, 20 goals for, 14 against in 11 matches
- Austin last 5 form: W-D-W-L-L; San Jose last 5 form: D-L-L-L-L
- H2H last 5: Austin 2W, San Jose 2W, 1D; Austin won last home meeting 3-1
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAustinEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Austin's home form and San Jose's recent struggles make the hosts avoiding defeat likely, but San Jose's away strength prevents higher confidence.
- Austin home record: 4W-3D-3L, 14 goals for, 10 against in 10 matches
- San Jose away record: 6W-2D-3L, 20 goals for, 14 against in 11 matches
- Austin last 5 form: W-D-W-L-L; San Jose last 5 form: D-L-L-L-L
- H2H last 5: Austin 2W, San Jose 2W, 1D; Austin won last home meeting 3-1
BetBugs · Double ChancewonAustin or DrawEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams often trail at half time, but a draw is plausible given the balanced first-half scoring records.
- Austin leading at half time: 29% of matches; trailing: 36%
- San Jose leading at half time: 20% of matches; trailing: 40%
- H2H last 5: 2 draws at half time, 2 San Jose leads, 1 Austin lead
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half time followed by an Austin win is a specific outcome with low probability but supported by Austin's home edge and San Jose's poor form.
- Austin home record: 4W-3D-3L; San Jose away record: 6W-2D-3L
- Austin last 5 form: W-D-W-L-L; San Jose last 5 form: D-L-L-L-L
- H2H last 5: Austin won last home meeting 3-1
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/AustinEstimated chance15%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches and H2H history show high-scoring tendencies, supporting over 2.5 goals.
- Austin home matches average 2.4 total goals (14 for, 10 against in 10)
- San Jose away matches average 3.1 total goals (20 for, 14 against in 11)
- H2H last 5: 4 of 5 meetings had over 2.5 goals
- San Jose concedes 2.2 goals per match overall
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records in their respective home/away splits, and H2H history shows frequent BTTS.
- Austin scored in 8 of 10 home matches
- San Jose scored in 9 of 11 away matches
- San Jose conceded in 9 of 11 away matches
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in 4 of 5 meetings
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to concede first-half goals, and H2H history shows early scoring, making over 0.5 first-half goals likely.
- Austin first half goals: 0.6 per match; first half goals conceded: 0.7 per match
- San Jose first half goals: 0.7 per match; first half goals conceded: 1.1 per match
- H2H last 5: 4 of 5 meetings had a first-half goal
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is plausible given both teams' defensive vulnerabilities, but the evidence is not strong enough for higher confidence.
- Austin second half goals: 0.7 per match (1.3 total - 0.6 first half)
- San Jose second half goals: 0.6 per match (1.3 total - 0.7 first half)
- San Jose concedes 2.2 goals per match overall, many in second half
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined corner averages slightly exceed 9.5, but the margin is small and variance is high, so confidence is low.
- Austin averages 4.7 corners per match; San Jose averages 5.5 corners per match
- Combined average corners: 10.2 per match
- Austin home matches average 4.7 corners; San Jose away matches average 5.5 corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams accumulate cards at a rate that suggests over 3.5 total cards, but card markets are volatile.
- Austin averages 2.1 yellow cards per match; San Jose averages 2.5 yellow cards per match
- Combined average yellow cards: 4.6 per match
- Austin averages 9.8 fouls per match; San Jose averages 13.2 fouls per match
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance55%