Ujpest0Puskas Academy1

HT 0–0Sat 17 Oct 2026, 17:30 Predictions graded

Predictions10–471%

Edges2–433%

PossPossession 66%–34%ShotsShots 25–8On targetOn target 5–3CornersCorners 6–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Oct 2026, 00:44 · Europe/Bucharest

Puskás Akadémia lead NB I and visit an Újpest side unbeaten at home in the league, with recent meetings between them rarely separated.

Puskás are the likelier winners, though a draw is a real possibility. The 1.62 for Puskás to draw or win and 2.75 for Puskás to win are both worth considering; over 2.5 goals at 1.53 and both teams to score at 1.5 ask more than the evidence supports, while Újpest to win at 2.1 is one to leave.

Context

Puskás Akadémia arrive as NB I's sole leader after winning away to reigning champions Győr, which frames this as a meeting between the division's front-runner and a home side chasing the same leading group. The win was narrow - Dániel Lukács settled it with the only goal - so the leaders' position rests on tight margins rather than dominance, and Újpest's best route is to keep the game level into the closing stages. Győr's slip is the reason Puskás are clear at the top, so a second away win in a row would stretch their advantage over the teams immediately behind. The available evidence indicates no rotation or availability change for the visitors.
- Puskás Akadémia won 1-0 away to ETO FC Győr on 11 October 2026 (MLSZ).
- Dániel Lukács scored the only goal of the game (Nemzeti Sport).
- The result put Puskás Akadémia first on 18 points, alone at the top (Excélsior).
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 00:42 · Europe/Bucharest
The most recent meeting, on 25 April 2026, ended 2-0 to Puskás Akadémia, and Újpest also lost the January 2026 fixture 0-1 without scoring. Against that, three of the last five meetings were drawn, so the fixture has produced both a clear Puskás edge through 2026 and tight, level games before that.
- Puskás Akadémia beat Újpest 2-0 at home in NB I on 25 April 2026 (matchBrief.h2h[0]).
- Újpest lost the previous meeting 0-1 at home on 31 January 2026 (matchBrief.h2h[1]).
- Three of the last five meetings were drawn: 0-0 on 4 October 2025, 1-1 on 9 March 2025 and 1-1 on 2 November 2024 (matchBrief.h2h).
Újpest have taken 10 points from a possible 12 at home and score freely there, which is the main reason this is not a straightforward trip for the leaders. They have also conceded in all four home league games, so the record rests on outscoring opponents rather than shutting them out.
- Újpest have 3 wins and 1 draw from 4 home league matches in 2026, scoring 10 and conceding 5 (matchBrief.home.home, latest home match 20 September 2026).
- Újpest scored in all four of those home league matches and kept no clean sheet in any of them (matchBrief.home.home).
The leaders' away form is the strongest part of their case: 12 points from five road games and only three goals conceded. The one away defeat, at Zalaegerszeg on 6 September, plus a home league record of two wins and two defeats from four, shows how much the away results are carrying them.
- Puskás Akadémia's league away record is 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat from 5 matches, with 7 goals scored and 3 conceded (NB I standings, fetched 13 October 2026).
- Their overall league record is 6 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats from 9, with 14 scored and 10 conceded (NB I standings, fetched 13 October 2026).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.75
The read
Puskas lead the table, travel well and have won the two most recent meetings against Ujpest.
- Puskas top NB I on 18 points from 9, with 6 wins
- Puskas away league record 4W 1L, 7 scored and 3 conceded
- Puskas won 1-0 at champions Gyor on 11 October
- Puskas won both 2026 head-to-heads without conceding to Ujpest
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonPuskas AcademyEstimated chance41%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both sides' first halves are relatively cagey, and Ujpest have often been level at the interval.
- Ujpest home first halves produced 0-0, 1-1 or 0-1 scorelines in 4 games
- Puskas first-half conceding 0.36 per game
- Half-time draws are the most common outcome in low-scoring first periods
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance43%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Ujpest are much stronger after the break at home, where they score most of their goals.
- Ujpest second-half scoring 1.22 per game and conceding 0.67
- Ujpest home second halves score 1.75 and concede 0.5
- Ujpest scored all three goals after half-time against Vasas
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostUjpestEstimated chance37%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ujpest have not lost at home this season and score freely there, but they face the league leaders who have already beaten them twice in 2026. Puskas lead the table, travel well and have won the two most recent meetings against Ujpest.
- Ujpest home league record 3W 1D 0L, 10 scored and 5 conceded in 4
- Ujpest 4W 3D 2L overall, ranked 4th on 15 points
- Puskas top NB I on 18 points from 9, with 6 wins
- Puskas away league record 4W 1L, 7 scored and 3 conceded
BetBugs · Double ChancewonUjpest or Puskas AcademyEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides' first halves are relatively cagey, and Ujpest have often been level at the interval. Puskas start strongly, score early on their travels and concede very little before the break.
- Ujpest home first halves produced 0-0, 1-1 or 0-1 scorelines in 4 games
- Puskas first-half conceding 0.36 per game
- Puskas first-half scoring 1.18 per game and conceding 0.36
- Puskas away first halves score 1.5 and concede 0.17
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or Puskas AcademyEstimated chance78%

Goals3 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.53
The read
Both sides score regularly and Ujpest have kept no clean sheet in nine league matches.
- Ujpest league matches average 3.56 total goals (2.0 for, 1.56 against)
- Ujpest home games average 3.75 total goals
- Puskas league scoring 1.56 per game and conceding 1.11 per game
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Ujpest concede in almost every game while Puskas have scored in the large majority of theirs.
- Ujpest both teams scored in 8 of 9 league games and all 4 at home
- Ujpest kept 0 clean sheets in 9 league matches
- Puskas scored in 9 of 11 league and cup matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Puskas concede little on their travels, which limits how many Ujpest are likely to score.
- Puskas conceded 3 goals in 5 away league games
- Puskas kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches
- Ujpest were held to one goal in 3 of their 9 league games
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonUjpest under 1.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Puskas' away league output has been modest, with several single-goal returns.
- Puskas league away scoring 1.4 per game
- Puskas scored 1, 0 and 1 in three of their last four away league games
- Ujpest conceded 5 goals in 4 home league games
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonPuskas Academy under 1.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Both teams' first halves usually feature at least one goal, and Puskas start actively.
- Ujpest first-half goals for and against total 1.67 per game
- Puskas first-half totals average 1.55 per game
- Puskas scored 2 first-half goals against Honved and 4 against Mezoors
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Puskas concede very rarely before half-time, making two first-half scorers unlikely.
- Puskas first-half conceding 0.36 per game
- Puskas away first halves concede 0.17 per game
- Most Ujpest home first halves involved only one side scoring
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance77%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined shot volumes for both sides sit slightly above the line on average.
- Ujpest shots plus opponent shots average 30.14 in 7 matches
- Puskas shots plus opponent shots average 28.22 in 9 matches
- Ujpest's last match produced 22 total shots
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 28.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Puskas' matches tend to finish below the line for accurate shots on both sides.
- Puskas shots on target plus opponent's average 9.56 in 9 matches
- Puskas away shots on target plus opponent's average 9.25 in 4 matches
- Ujpest's last match produced 8 combined shots on target
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 10.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined yellow cards sit near the line, and both teams have picked up red cards this season.
- Ujpest yellows plus opponent's average 4.14 in 7 matches
- Puskas yellows plus opponent's average 4.56 in 9 matches
- Puskas have 0.67 red cards per match overall and Ujpest 0.33 in the metric sample
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance55%