Kispest Honved1Ujpest1

HT 0–0Sun 11 Oct 2026, 14:45 Predictions graded

Predictions8–562%

Edges2–340%

PossPossession 46%–54%ShotsShots 9–13On targetOn target 3–5CornersCorners 0–13

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Oct 2026, 02:23 · Europe/Bucharest

Újpest are the better side but have won only one of four away league games, and they meet a Kispest team that has scored in every competitive match since 17 May.

Újpest, with Matko back, are the likelier winners, with the draw a real second option. The draw-or-Újpest double chance at 1.5 and Újpest to win at 2.5 are the two prices that justify a stake; the rest of the reviewed markets do not.

Context

Újpest's Slovenia forward Aljoša Matko returns for the Kispest trip after scoring and setting up a goal in a 2-1 Nations League win over Scotland on 6 October, taking his club output this season to five goals and four assists in eight matches. That production makes him the clearest attacking reference in the away squad going into a derby that follows nearly three weeks without league football. The counterweight is the international load: he played and travelled in midweek, so his rhythm comes attached to minutes and travel rather than a rested build-up.
- Aljoša Matko scored and provided an assist as Slovenia beat Scotland 2-1 in the Nations League on 6 October 2026.
- Matko has five goals and four assists in eight appearances for Újpest this season.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Oct 2026, 02:21 · Europe/Bucharest
Nine competitive matches without a shutout, running from 16 May to 20 September, is the clearest reason to expect Kispest to get chances at home, since the same Kispest side has scored in all nine of its own competitive matches. Újpest's scoring output of 2.00 goals per game means the reverse also holds, pointing to a game in which clean sheets look unlikely at either end.
- Újpest's nine tracked competitive matches run from 16 May to 20 September 2026: nine goals conceded, zero clean sheets, and both teams scoring in eight of the nine.
- Újpest's scoring average in that sample is 2.00 goals per match, against 1.67 conceded.
The division has been idle for three weeks, so neither side has played a competitive league match since mid-September and both return through the international window. Round nine is spread over Saturday and Sunday, with Újpest travelling to Kispest as one of six fixtures. The gap applies across the league rather than to one club, so it shapes the conditions of the match without favouring either team.
- The NB I resumes on the weekend of 10-11 October 2026 with six matches from round nine.
- Kispest Honvéd's home fixture against Újpest is listed within that round-nine programme.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Oct 2026, 02:21 · Europe/Bucharest
Ticket sales for the Újpest match opened at the club's football house on 5 October and then online on 8 October, three days before the 11 October kick-off. The two sales channels are the concrete content of the development, and nothing attached to them restricts attendance or away support. It is a logistical detail rather than a playing condition, useful mainly as a signal that the fixture is being staged as an ordinary home match with a public gate.
- In-person ticket sales for the Újpest match opened at the Kispesti Futball Ház on 5 October 2026.
- Online sales for the same fixture opened on 8 October 2026.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Oct 2026, 02:21 · Europe/BucharestKispest Honvéd official sitewww.honvedfc.hu · 8 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.50
The read
Ujpest have the better league position and attacking record, and Matko's return adds a known threat.
- Ujpest are 4th with 14 points and 17 goals in 8 league games.
- Ujpest away league record is 1W 1D 2L with 7 goals for and 8 against.
- Aljoša Matko has 5 goals and 4 assists in 8 appearances and returns after scoring for Slovenia.
- Kispest are 11th and have conceded 14 goals in 7 league games.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostUjpestEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A level first half is common when both teams are cautious after a long pause.
- Kispest have drawn 3 of 7 league games.
- Ujpest have drawn 2 of 8 league games.
- Kispest average 1.22 first-half goals for and 0.56 against overall.
- Ujpest average 0.78 first-half goals for and 1.11 against overall.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Ujpest are stronger after half-time and Kispest concede late at home.
- Ujpest average 1.22 second-half goals for and 0.56 against overall.
- Ujpest have scored 1.75 second-half goals per home game and 0.80 away.
- Kispest concede 1.33 second-half goals per home game.
- Kispest average only 0.33 second-half goals at home.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostUjpestEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Both teams have shown they can draw and neither has a clear home or away edge. Ujpest have the better league position and attacking record, and Matko's return adds a known threat.
- Kispest have drawn 3 of 7 league games.
- Ujpest have drawn 2 of 8 league games.
- Ujpest are 4th with 14 points and 17 goals in 8 league games.
- Ujpest away league record is 1W 1D 2L with 7 goals for and 8 against.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or UjpestEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Kispest have started well at home while Ujpest have conceded early away. A level first half is common when both teams are cautious after a long pause.
- Kispest average 1.22 first-half goals for and 0.56 against overall.
- At home Kispest average 1.33 first-half goals for and 0.33 against.
- Kispest have drawn 3 of 7 league games.
- Ujpest have drawn 2 of 8 league games.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonKispest Honved or DrawEstimated chance78%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Both teams concede regularly and their matches often produce three or more goals.
- Kispest average 2.11 goals for and 2.00 against in 9 competitive matches.
- Ujpest average 2.00 goals for and 1.67 against in 9 competitive matches.
- Kispest home matches average 3.33 total goals.
- Ujpest away matches average 3.60 total goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Both sides score often and neither defence has been reliable enough to expect a clean sheet.
- Kispest have scored in all 9 competitive matches.
- Ujpest have scored in 8 of 9 competitive matches.
- Both teams scored in 7 of Kispest's 9 and 8 of Ujpest's 9 competitive matches.
- Kispest home and Ujpest away both concede regularly.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Both teams' first halves usually produce at least one goal.
- Kispest overall average 1.78 total first-half goals.
- Ujpest overall average 1.89 total first-half goals.
- Kispest home first-half total average 1.67.
- Ujpest away first-half total average 2.20.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Kispest's early home defence makes a first-half clean sheet more likely than not.
- Kispest home first-half goals against average 0.33.
- Ujpest away first-half goals for average 0.80.
- Kispest overall first-half goals against average 0.56.
- Ujpest overall first-half goals for average 0.78.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves involving these teams often produce two or more goals.
- Kispest overall second-half total average 2.33 goals.
- Ujpest overall second-half total average 1.78 goals.
- Kispest home second-half total average 1.67 goals.
- Ujpest away second-half total average 1.40 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance56%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches average around nine corners, so over 8.5 is slightly more likely.
- Kispest overall average 9.50 total corners.
- Ujpest overall average 9.14 total corners.
- Kispest home total corners average 9.00.
- Ujpest away total corners average 9.00.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams put a fair share of shots on target, so over 11.5 is slightly favored.
- Kispest overall shots on target average 5.67, opponent 4.00.
- Ujpest overall shots on target average 6.00, opponent 4.43.
- Kispest home shots on target average 5.00, opponent 2.50.
- Ujpest away shots on target average 4.75, opponent 5.00.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 11.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined card averages and derby setting make over 4.5 slightly more likely.
- Kispest overall total cards average about 4.0.
- Ujpest overall total cards average about 4.9.
- Ujpest away matches average about 5.25 total cards.
- This is a derby and recent Ujpest matches have had several cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance54%