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Predictions graded

Ferencvaros2Ujpest2

HT 2–1Sun 6 Sept 2026, 15:45 Predictions graded

Predictions7–558%

Edges5–183%

PossPossession 58%–42%ShotsShots 19–10On targetOn target 6–4CornersCorners 5–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 3 Sep 2026, 01:09 · Europe/Bucharest

Ferencvaros are rightly favoured, but the odds offer no value on the home win or double chance.

The short turnaround after Thursday's away match adds risk, and the market is overpricing over 2.5 goals, both teams to score, and first-half goals. Best approach: avoid the heavy favourites and look for value against the first-half goal and first-half double chance markets.

Context

Ferencvaros are the home side in this Budapest derby. They have won their last two home league meetings with Ujpest without conceding a goal.
The most recent home meeting was a 3-0 win on 7 February 2026, and the previous one was a 2-0 win on 6 April 2025. Those results suggest Ferencvaros have been comfortable at home against Ujpest recently. However, Ujpest have improved this season and are currently second in the table, so past results may not fully reflect the current balance.
- Ferencvaros beat Ujpest 3-0 at home on 7 February 2026.
- Ferencvaros beat Ujpest 2-0 at home on 6 April 2025.
Ujpest are second in the NB I table but have been stronger at home than away. Their away record this season is one win and two losses in three matches.
Ujpest lost 2-0 at Paks on 21 August 2026 and 2-1 at Nyiregyhaza on 24 July 2026. Those defeats came against teams below them in the table, which raises questions about their away form. Ferencvaros have not won at home yet this season, but they have only played one home league match, so this derby is a test for both sides.
- Ujpest lost 2-0 at Paks on 21 August 2026.
- Ujpest lost 2-1 at Nyiregyhaza on 24 July 2026.
Ferencvaros have a confirmed away league fixture against ETO FC in Gyor on 3 September at 19:30, three days before this derby.
The short turnaround after the Gyor match may force Ferencvaros to manage minutes and consider rotation for the derby. The linked analysis suggests Ferencvaros' depth could still give them an edge, but the exact lineup impact remains uncertain without further team news.
- Ferencváros confirmed the ETO FC–Ferencváros fixture for 3 September at 19:30 in Győr.
- The club’s weekly programme lists FTC–Újpest FC for 6 September at 17:45 at Groupama Aréna.
ConfirmedSources checked 3 Sep 2026, 01:07 · Europe/BucharestFerencváros: three match times announcedwww.fradi.hu · 24 Aug 2026Ferencváros weekly programmewww.fradi.hu · 31 Aug 2026
Ferencvaros are seventh in the NB I table with seven points from four matches. Their schedule has been lighter because of European commitments.
Ferencvaros have played four league matches, while Ujpest have played six. That means Ferencvaros have two games in hand on Ujpest, but they are currently three points behind them. A win in this derby would move Ferencvaros closer to the top, while a loss would leave them further adrift.
- Ferencvaros have played 4 matches, while Ujpest have played 6.
- Ferencvaros have 7 points, Ujpest have 10 points.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Ferencvaros

1.40fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 71.4%

0.0ppshort

Ferencvaros' superior H2H record and stronger defensive stats give them a clear edge in this derby.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Ferencvaros or Draw

1.11fair 1.18

BetBugs 85% · Market 90.1%

0.0ppshort

Ferencvaros' strong home record in this fixture and Ujpest's away struggles make a home win or draw highly likely.

1 St Half Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Ferencvaros or Draw

1.11fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 90.1%

0.0ppshort

Ferencvaros are unlikely to be behind at half-time, making a home win or draw a strong bet.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.45fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 69%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have been involved in high-scoring games recently, and the H2H often produces goals.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.62fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 61.7%

0.0ppshort

Ujpest's attacking output and Ferencvaros' occasional defensive lapses suggest both teams can score.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.20fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 83.3%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to score in the first half, making a first-half goal likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 7 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ferencvaros' superior H2H record and stronger defensive stats give them a clear edge in this derby.
- Ferencvaros have won 3 of the last 5 H2H meetings, including a 5-0 away win in May 2026.
- Ferencvaros average 1.6 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per match in recent form.
- Ujpest have lost 2 of their last 3 away league matches, conceding 6 goals.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostFerencvarosEstimated chance65%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ferencvaros' strong home record in this fixture and Ujpest's away struggles make a home win or draw highly likely.
- Ferencvaros have not lost at home in their last 5 matches against Ujpest.
- Ferencvaros have only 1 loss in their last 4 league matches.
- Ujpest have lost 2 of their last 3 away matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonFerencvaros or DrawEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Ferencvaros' tendency to start strongly gives them a slight edge, but a draw is also likely.
- Ferencvaros lead at half-time in 47% of recent matches.
- Ujpest trail at half-time in 33% of recent matches.
- Ferencvaros have scored first-half goals in 3 of their last 5 matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonFerencvarosEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Ferencvaros' quality and depth could give them the edge after the break.
- Ferencvaros have a positive second-half goal difference in recent matches.
- Ujpest have conceded more second-half goals than they have scored.
- Ferencvaros' superior squad depth may show in the second half.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostFerencvarosEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A Ferencvaros lead at half-time and full-time is plausible but not highly probable.
- Ferencvaros have led at half-time in 47% of recent matches.
- Ferencvaros have won 3 of the last 5 H2H meetings.
- Ujpest have lost 2 of their last 3 away matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostFerencvaros/FerencvarosEstimated chance30%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Ferencvaros could dominate both halves, but it is not a high-probability outcome.
- Ferencvaros have won both halves in 2 of their last 5 matches.
- Ujpest have lost both halves in 1 of their last 5 matches.
- Ferencvaros' strong H2H record suggests dominance is possible.
BetBugs · Win Both HalveslostFerencvarosEstimated chance25%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ferencvaros are unlikely to be behind at half-time, making a home win or draw a strong bet.
- Ferencvaros lead at half-time in 47% of matches and draw in 40%.
- Ujpest trail at half-time in 33% of matches.
- Ferencvaros have not trailed at half-time in their last 3 home matches.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonFerencvaros or DrawEstimated chance75%

Goals4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have been involved in high-scoring games recently, and the H2H often produces goals.
- Ujpest's recent matches average 3.6 total goals (2.0 scored, 1.6 conceded).
- Ferencvaros' last 5 H2H meetings have produced 3, 3, 2, 2, and 5 goals.
- Ujpest have seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ujpest's attacking output and Ferencvaros' occasional defensive lapses suggest both teams can score.
- Ujpest have scored in 5 of their last 6 matches.
- Ferencvaros have conceded in 3 of their last 5 matches.
- Ujpest average 2.0 goals scored per match in recent form.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, making a first-half goal likely.
- Ferencvaros average 0.8 first-half goals scored and 0.4 conceded.
- Ujpest average 0.8 first-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, 4 had at least one first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The second half often opens up in derbies, but the probability is only moderate.
- Ferencvaros average 0.8 second-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded.
- Ujpest average 1.2 second-half goals scored and 0.9 conceded.
- Recent H2H matches have seen multiple second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams scoring in the first half is less likely given their defensive records.
- Ferencvaros average 0.4 first-half goals conceded.
- Ujpest average 0.7 first-half goals conceded.
- Only 1 of the last 5 H2H meetings had both teams scoring in the first half.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance55%