NB IFull time

Predictions graded

Vasas SC0Puskas Academy0

HT 0–0Sat 22 Aug 2026, 13:30 Predictions graded

Predictions3–633%

Edges5–9–236%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 19 Aug 2026, 16:20 · Europe/Bucharest

The best value lies in the draw at 3.30 (edge +1.7) or the away/draw double chance at 1.67 (edge +2.1), as the market overprices a Vasas home win.

Avoid the over 2.5 goals and BTTS markets, where the odds imply far higher probabilities than our model supports.

Context

Vasas 2-2 Puskas Academy (29 Apr 2023, NB I)
- Puskas Academy 1-1 Vasas (3 Feb 2023, NB I)
- Vasas 1-1 Puskas Academy (3 Sep 2022, NB I)
Puskas Academy won 3-2 at MTK Budapest on 7 Aug 2026
- Puskas Academy won 2-0 at Debreceni VSC on 26 Jul 2026
- They have scored 5 goals and conceded 2 in away matches
Vasas won 5-0 at home to Zalaegerszegi TE on 8 Aug 2026
- Vasas drew 2-2 at home to Gyori ETO FC on 26 Jul 2026
- Vasas have scored 9 goals and conceded 3 in 4 league matches
Puskas Academy official site identified Hornyák as head coach on 16 May 2026
- No subsequent appointment or dismissal signal found before this fixture

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 14

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Vasas SC

2.15fair 2.63

BetBugs 38% · Market 46.5%

0.0ppshort

Vasas SC are unbeaten in their last 4 NB I matches and have scored 9 goals in 4 league games, but the market price of 2.15 implies a 46.5% chance, which is above our 38% estimate, leaving no value.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Puskas Academy

3.00fair 3.33

BetBugs 30% · Market 33.3%

0.0ppshort

Puskas Academy are top of the table with 9 points and have a perfect away record this season, but the market price of 3.00 implies a 33.3% chance, which is above our 30% estimate, leaving no value.

1 St Half ResultlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Vasas SC

2.40fair 2.50

BetBugs 40% · Market 41.7%

−1.7ppshort

Vasas SC lead at half-time in 40% of matches, but the market price of 2.40 implies a 41.7% chance, which is above our 40% estimate, leaving no value.

1 St Half ResultlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Puskas Academy

3.50fair 7.69

BetBugs 13% · Market 28.6%

−15.6ppshort

Puskas Academy lead at half-time in only 33% of matches overall and trail in 40%, but the market price of 3.50 implies a 28.6% chance, which is far above our 13% estimate, leaving no value.

HT/FTlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Draw at half-time / Vasas SC at full-time

5.26fair 5.32

BetBugs 18.8% · Market 19%

−0.2ppshort

Vasas SC often draw at half-time and then win at home, but the market price of 5.25 implies a 19.0% chance, which is roughly in line with our 18.8% estimate, offering no value.

HT/FTlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Puskas Academy at half-time / Puskas Academy at full-time

5.00fair 10.10

BetBugs 9.9% · Market 20%

−10.1ppshort

Puskas Academy lead at half-time in only 33% of matches overall and trail in 40%, but the market price of 5.00 implies a 20.0% chance, which is far above our 9.9% estimate, leaving no value.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.55fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 64.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams show attacking intent and recent H2H was high-scoring, but the odds already reflect that, leaving no value.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.48fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 67.6%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have consistent scoring records, but the market has already priced in a high likelihood of both scoring.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.25fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to score in the first half, but the odds are too short to offer value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Vasas SC's strong recent form and home advantage, combined with Puskas Academy's defensive vulnerabilities, give them a slight edge, though the draw-heavy H2H pattern tempers confidence.
- Vasas SC are unbeaten in their last 4 NB I matches (W2 D2) and sit 2nd with 8 points.
- Vasas SC have scored 9 goals in 4 league games, averaging 2.25 per match.
- Puskas Academy have lost 1 of their last 4 league games and have conceded 6 goals in 4 matches.
- H2H: Vasas won the most recent meeting 4-1 in the Hungarian Cup (Sep 2025).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostVasas SCEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The historical draw-heavy pattern in NB I meetings and both teams' solid starts make a stalemate a realistic outcome.
- The last three NB I meetings between these teams all ended in draws.
- Vasas SC have drawn 2 of their 4 league matches this season.
- Puskas Academy have drawn 1 of their 4 league matches this season.
- Both teams are in the top two positions, suggesting a closely contested match.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance32%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Puskas Academy's league-leading form and strong away performances keep them competitive, though Vasas SC's home strength and H2H draws reduce their probability.
- Puskas Academy are top of the table with 9 points from 4 games.
- Puskas Academy have won 3 of their last 4 league matches.
- Puskas Academy have a perfect away record this season (2 wins from 2).
- Vasas SC have conceded 3 goals in 4 league games, showing defensive solidity.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostPuskas AcademyEstimated chance30%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The teams are evenly matched in first-half performance, making a draw at half-time plausible.
- Vasas SC have drawn at half-time in 2 of 4 league matches.
- Puskas Academy have drawn at half-time in 1 of 4 league matches.
- Both teams have similar first-half goal averages (0.7 vs 0.8).
- H2H recent matches have often been level at half-time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The draw-heavy H2H and both teams' tendency to draw support a draw at both half-time and full-time.
- Vasas SC have drawn 2 of 4 league matches.
- Puskas Academy have drawn 1 of 4 league matches.
- H2H: 3 of last 4 NB I meetings ended in draws.
- Both teams have similar first-half goal averages.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDraw / DrawEstimated chance18%

Goals0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown attacking intent and the recent H2H was high-scoring, supporting the over 2.5 goals market.
- Vasas SC average 2.25 goals scored per league game.
- Puskas Academy average 2.0 goals scored per league game.
- Combined, both teams have seen over 2.5 goals in 5 of their 8 league matches this season.
- The most recent H2H meeting produced 5 goals (4-1).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records and have shown defensive lapses, making both teams scoring likely.
- Vasas SC have scored in all 4 league matches this season.
- Puskas Academy have scored in 3 of their 4 league matches.
- Vasas SC have conceded in 2 of 4 league matches.
- Puskas Academy have conceded in 3 of 4 league matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, with a high combined rate of first-half goals.
- Vasas SC average 0.7 first-half goals per match.
- Puskas Academy average 0.8 first-half goals per match.
- In 6 of 8 combined league matches, at least one first-half goal was scored.
- Vasas SC have led at half-time in 40% of matches; Puskas Academy in 33%.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is common for both teams, especially Vasas SC, supporting over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Vasas SC average 1.4 second-half goals per match (total goals minus first-half goals).
- Puskas Academy average 0.7 second-half goals per match.
- Combined, both teams average 2.1 second-half goals per match.
- The most recent H2H had 3 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Puskas Academy's higher corner count and their matches' total corners suggest a possibility of over 8.5 corners, though Vasas SC's low average adds uncertainty.
- Vasas SC average 2 corners per match (limited data).
- Puskas Academy average 4.7 corners per match.
- Combined average from available data is 6.7 corners per match.
- Puskas Academy's matches have seen an average of 9.4 total corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Puskas Academy's higher shots on target and their matches' totals suggest over 7.5 shots on target is possible, but Vasas SC's low average creates uncertainty.
- Vasas SC average 2 shots on target per match (limited data).
- Puskas Academy average 4.7 shots on target per match.
- Combined average from available data is 6.7 shots on target per match.
- Puskas Academy's matches have seen an average of 9.4 total shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/Undernot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Puskas Academy's higher card count and their matches' total cards suggest over 3.5 cards is likely, though Vasas SC's low card average adds uncertainty.
- Vasas SC average 0 yellow cards per match (limited data).
- Puskas Academy average 2.4 yellow cards per match.
- Puskas Academy's matches have seen an average of 4.4 total cards.
- Vasas SC have received 1 red card in 4 matches.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 46.5% leaves no cushion vs our 38% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

1W · 3D · 1W

L4-1VasasvPuskas AcademySep 13, 2025MAG

D2-2VasasvPuskas AcademyApr 29, 2023NB

D1-1Puskas AcademyvVasasFeb 3, 2023NB

D1-1VasasvPuskas AcademySep 3, 2022NB

W1-2VasasvPuskas AcademyApr 7, 2018NB

3.2 goals/game avg

League Table

NB I 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
2	Vasas SC Play-offs	4	2	2	0	9-3	8	WWDD
1	Puskas Academy Play-offs	4	3	0	1	8-6	9	WWLW

1pt gap between teamsPuskas Academy leads the league

Recent Form

Vasas SC

W2-1Budapest HonvedAug 14NB

W5-0Zalaegerszegi TEAug 8NB

D0-0Ferencvarosi TCAug 2NB

D2-2Gyori ETO FCJul 26NB

W1-0Fehérvár FCJul 18FRI

W2-1SoroksarJul 18FRI

W5-1Kecskeméti TEJul 11FRI

W3-1Kisvarda FCJul 8FRI

W3-1KomárnoJul 4FRI

L1-3MTK BudapestJul 1FRI

W2-1AjkaMay 17NB

L1-3Budapest HonvedMay 10NB

W3-2Budafoki LCMay 4NB

W2-0Fehérvár FCApr 26NB

L0-2BVSCApr 20NB

Puskas Academy

W3-2PaksAug 16NB

W3-2MTK BudapestAug 7NB

L0-2Kisvarda FCJul 31NB

W2-0Debreceni VSCJul 26NB

L0-2BaşakşehirJul 16FRI

D1-1FC BW LinzJul 11FRI

W1-0Slovan BratislavaJul 4FRI

D2-2MTK BudapestMay 15NB

W3-1Zalaegerszegi TEMay 1NB

W2-0UjpestApr 25NB

L0-1PaksApr 19NB

L1-2Ferencvarosi TCApr 14NB

L1-4Gyori ETO FCApr 10NB

W2-1Diosgyori VTKApr 5NB

D1-1Debreceni VSCMar 22NB

Squad & Injuries

Vasas SC

32 available

Attackers11

Midfielders10

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Puskas Academy

29 available

Attackers6

Midfielders12

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Vasas SC0Puskas Academy0

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Draw or Puskas Academy

Vasas SC

Puskas Academy

Vasas SC or Draw

Vasas SC, draw no bet

Puskas Academy, draw no bet

Vasas SC

Draw

Puskas Academy

Draw at half-time / Vasas SC at full-time

Draw at half-time / Draw at full-time

Puskas Academy at half-time / Puskas Academy at full-time

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 0.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result3 of 5 landed

Goals0 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Vasas SC

Puskas Academy

Vasas SC, draw no bet

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Vasas SC

Puskas Academy

Squad & Injuries

Vasas SC

Puskas Academy