SuperettanUpcomingFeatured

LjungskileIK Brage

Sat 17 Oct 2026, 11:0017 Oct, 11:00

14Probabilities5Priced5Edges80%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight leanNear coin-flip

Quick Take

Read first

Context last updated 12 Oct 2026, 22:00 · Europe/Bucharest

Two sides in the lower half meet in round 27: Ljungskile, 11th on 29 points, host a Brage team 14th on 26 that has not won away in seven league games.

Ljungskile's own home form is uneven, and Brage come in off a 2-0 win over Helsingborg, so the home edge is slim. Of the prices reviewed, only the first half ending level at 2.4 offers anything; Ljungskile to win at 1.91, Brage at 3.2 and over 2.5 goals at 1.5 ask too much.

Context

A direct meeting between two sides in the lower half with the season in its closing rounds, and recent league form pointing in opposite directions. No injury or availability information was reported for either club, and nothing exceptional was recorded about the conditions.

IK Brage's own 7 October post counted 'five matches left' before round 26, confirming this fixture sits in the season's closing rounds. Ljungskile and Brage are the two clubs still fighting at the bottom, so the direct meeting carries more weight than a routine mid-table game, and a win would pull one away from the other. Both arrive off contrasting round-26 results: Ljungskile drew, Brage won. The bottom-of-the-table framing rests on supporter and analyst commentary rather than an official league snapshot, so it is best treated as context rather than a settled competitive edge.
- IK Brage's 7 October 2026 post counted 'fem matcher kvar' (five matches left) before round 26.
- A 10 October supporter post described Brage and Ljungskile as the only clubs still within catching range in the bottom fight.
- Round 26 sent them in different directions: Ljungskile drew 1-1 at Örebro, Brage beat Helsingborg 2-0 at home.
To watchSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 21:57 · Europe/Bucharest
A stoppage-time equaliser at Örebro on 11 October kept Ljungskile from a damaging defeat and preserved their points total immediately before a home game against another bottom-half side. It came in the rain at Behrn Arena after Örebro had controlled much of the match, underlining that the point owed more to resilience than control. Because the outcome was a single late goal rather than a sustained improvement, it moves the table only marginally, and its main value is avoiding a loss in the run-in. The manner of the draw also leaves open whether Ljungskile can create more against a Brage side that just kept a clean sheet.
- Örebro and Ljungskile drew 1-1 in Superettan on 11 October 2026.
- Ljungskile's equaliser came with the last kick of the match in the rain at Behrn Arena.
- Örebro had controlled much of the game and scored through substitute Jacob Ortmark.
ReportedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 21:57 · Europe/Bucharest
Brage's 2-0 home win over Helsingborg on 11 October was their first Superettan victory since 1 August, ending a run of eight league matches without a win. They scored in each half and kept a clean sheet, a rare complete performance after conceding at least twice in several recent away defeats. The result eases the pressure before the trip to Ljungskile and shows Brage can protect a lead, which matters in a tight relegation fixture. Their road form remains the counterpoint: heavy recent away losses at Falkenberg and Varberg mean the upturn may not travel.
- IK Brage beat Helsingborg 2-0 at home on 11 October 2026 in Superettan round 26.
- Brage led 1-0 at half-time and added a second after the break while keeping a clean sheet.
- It was their first league win since 1 August 2026, ending eight Superettan matches without a victory.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 21:57 · Europe/Bucharest
Brage have scored 41 goals in 26 league games but conceded 48, more than the 37 Ljungskile have shipped. That defensive record is the main reason they sit 14th on 26 points, three behind Ljungskile. Both teams have shown they can be opened up, so goals at both ends is a reasonable shape for this game.
- IK Brage 2026 league record: 26 played, 6 wins, 8 draws, 12 defeats, 41 scored, 48 conceded, 26 points.
- Ljungskile 2026 league record: 26 played, 7 wins, 8 draws, 11 defeats, 34 scored, 37 conceded, 29 points.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalsUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.20fair 1.37

BetBugs 73% · Market 83.3%

−10.3ppshort

At least one first-half goal has been common in both teams' recent matches.

Both Teams to ScoreUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.50fair 1.75

BetBugs 57% · Market 66.7%

−9.7ppshort

Ljungskile rarely keep clean sheets at home while Brage usually find a goal.

Goals Over/UnderUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.50fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 66.7%

−11.7ppshort

Brage's leaking away defence and two attack-minded sides make three goals a realistic outcome.

Match WinnerUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Ljungskile

1.91fair 2.27

BetBugs 44% · Market 52.4%

−8.4ppshort

Ljungskile's home advantage and Brage's winless away run give them the largest share of the match.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result4 outcomes · top 76%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.91
The read
Ljungskile's home advantage and Brage's winless away run give them the largest share of the match.
- Ljungskile home: 3W 0D 4L in 7, 4 scored 7 conceded
- IK Brage away: 0W 2D 5L in 7, 4 scored 6 conceded (2.29 against per game)
- Head-to-head June 2026 ended 2-2
- Ljungskile league home record 5W 1D 7L, 16 GF 19 GA
BetBugs · Match WinnerLjungskileMarket price1.91Estimated chance44%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.40
The read
First halves in these teams' matches frequently end level.
- Ljungskile home first half average total 1.57 goals
- Brage away first half average total 1.29 goals
- Two of Ljungskile's last six first halves were 0-0
- Brage's last six included one first-half 0-0
BetBugs · First Half WinnerDrawMarket price2.40Estimated chance46%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves often stay balanced or produce a single goal rather than a clear winner.
- Ljungskile home second half total 1.28 goals
- Brage away second half total 1.86 goals
- Three of Ljungskile's last six second halves were level
- Two of Brage's last six second halves were level
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerDrawEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ljungskile's home first-half scoring and Brage's early concessions give them the edge. First halves in these teams' matches frequently end level.
- Ljungskile home first half: 0.71 scored, 0.86 conceded per game
- Brage away first half: 0.29 scored, 1.00 conceded per game
- Ljungskile home first half average total 1.57 goals
- Brage away first half average total 1.29 goals
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfLjungskile or DrawEstimated chance76%

Goals6 outcomes · top 80%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Brage's leaking away defence and two attack-minded sides make three goals a realistic outcome.
- Ljungskile home: 1.29 scored, 1.57 conceded per game
- Brage away: 0.86 scored, 2.29 conceded per game
- Brage league total 41 GF 48 GA in 26 games
- Ljungskile's last six averaged 2.83 total goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderOver 2.5Market price1.50Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Ljungskile rarely keep clean sheets at home while Brage usually find a goal.
- Ljungskile home: both teams scored in 4 of 7
- Brage away: both teams scored in 4 of 7
- Ljungskile kept 0 clean sheets in 7 home games
- Brage failed to score in 3 of 7 away games
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreYesMarket price1.50Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ljungskile's home defence has been breached in every one of their last seven.
- Ljungskile home clean sheets 0 of 7
- Brage score 0.86 per away game
- Ljungskile concede 1.57 per home game
- Brage found the net in 4 of 7 away games
BetBugs · Team to ScoreIK Brage to scoreEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Brage's away defence has been generous and rarely finishes a game without conceding.
- Brage away clean sheets 1 of 7
- Ljungskile scored in 4 of 7 home games
- Brage concede 2.29 per away game
- Brage overall 8 losses in 14
BetBugs · Team to ScoreLjungskile to scoreEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
At least one first-half goal has been common in both teams' recent matches.
- Ljungskile home first half total 1.57 goals per game
- Brage away first half total 1.29 goals per game
- Ljungskile first-half goals in 4 of last 6
- Brage first-half goals in 5 of last 6
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfMarket price1.20Estimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half output is inconsistent, so under is marginally favoured.
- Ljungskile home second half total 1.28 goals
- Brage away second half total 1.86 goals
- Brage's last six included two goalless second halves
- Three of Ljungskile's last six second halves had one goal or fewer
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfUnder 1.5Estimated chance53%

Match stats4 outcomes · top 62%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Brage concede corners heavily and Ljungskile generate a fair number at home.
- Ljungskile 8-match corners 5.0, opponents 5.6
- Brage 7-match corners 3.7, opponents 7.6
- Brage's last six opponents averaged 8.2 corners
- Ljungskile's last six averaged 10.3 total corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderOver 8.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ljungskile's high shot volume lifts the combined total above the line.
- Ljungskile 8-match total shots 26.5 per game
- Brage 7-match total shots 17 per game
- Ljungskile's last six averaged 29 total shots
- Brage's last six averaged 19.8 total shots
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderOver 21.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ljungskile's on-target volume gives the combined figure a slight lean over the line.
- Ljungskile 8-match shots on target 10.4 per game
- Brage 7-match shots on target 7.0 per game
- Ljungskile's last six averaged 11.5 on target
- Brage's last six averaged 8.2 on target
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderOver 8.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Card counts in both teams' recent matches have sat below four.
- Ljungskile 8-match cards 2.6 per game
- Brage 7-match cards 2.9 per game
- No red cards in either side's last six
- Recent totals between the two teams mostly stayed near 2-3
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderUnder 3.5Estimated chance62%