Ettan - NorraFull time

Predictions graded

Assyriska 2IFK Stocksund1

HT 2–0Fri 4 Sept 2026, 17:30 Predictions graded

Predictions10–377%

Edges5–0100%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 2 Sep 2026, 23:25 · Europe/Bucharest

Assyriska are in better form and Stocksund struggle away, but the odds on home win, double chance, over 2.5 goals, and BTTS all imply higher probabilities than our model estimates, leaving no value.

The best approach is to avoid these popular markets or look for value on the under side.

Context

IFK Stocksund are 16th in the 16-team Ettan Norra with 11 points after 19 matches.
They have lost 12 of 19 league games and are on a run of three straight defeats, including a 2-3 home loss to Arlanda on 29 August. Their away record is poor with one win, one draw, and seven losses in nine away matches. This match is important for them to try to close the gap to safety, but their recent form and away struggles make that difficult.
- IFK Stocksund are 16th with 11 points from 19 matches.
- They have lost 12 league games and their last three matches.
- Their away record is 1 win, 1 draw, 7 losses in 9 away games.
Assyriska are 8th in Ettan Norra with 26 points from 19 matches.
They have won four of their last five league matches, with the only defeat in that run a 1-2 home loss to Gefle IF on 23 August. Their recent wins include a 2-0 away victory at Järfälla on 29 August and a 3-0 home win over Sollentuna on 9 August. This strong form suggests they will be confident, but their home record is mixed with three wins, two draws, and four losses in nine home games.
- Assyriska won 2-0 away at Järfälla on 29 August 2026.
- They beat Sollentuna 3-0 at home on 9 August 2026.
- Their only recent league defeat was 1-2 at home to Gefle IF on 23 August 2026.
Assyriska and IFK Stocksund have met five times since 2024.
The most recent league meeting on 23 May 2026 ended 3-3, and the two league meetings in 2025 also had at least four goals. In total, the last three encounters produced 15 goals. Both teams have shown they can score against each other, but IFK Stocksund's current defensive struggles may make another high-scoring game possible.
- On 23 May 2026, Stocksund and Assyriska drew 3-3.
- On 17 October 2025, Assyriska and Stocksund drew 3-3.
- On 7 March 2026, Assyriska beat Stocksund 2-1 in a friendly.
IFK Stocksund's recent form has been poor.
They lost 2-3 at home to Arlanda on 29 August, 3-4 away to Vasalund on 23 August, and 0-2 away to Karlberg on 15 August. In those three matches they conceded nine goals, showing defensive problems. This run makes it harder for them to get a result against an in-form Assyriska side.
- Lost 2-3 at home to Arlanda on 29 August 2026.
- Lost 3-4 away to Vasalund on 23 August 2026.
- Lost 0-2 away to Karlberg on 15 August 2026.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Assyriska

1.67fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 60%

0.0ppshort

Assyriska's recent form is strong (W-L-W-W-W) and Stocksund have lost 7 of 9 away, but the odds imply a 60% chance while our model gives only 45%, so the price is too short.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Assyriska or Draw

1.25fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 80%

−8.0ppshort

Assyriska are unbeaten in 4 of last 5 home matches and Stocksund have lost 7 of 9 away, but the odds of 1.25 imply 80% probability while our estimate is 72%, leaving no value.

1 St Half Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Assyriska or Draw

1.20fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 83%

−13.0ppshort

Assyriska led at half-time in 47% of matches and Stocksund trailed in 47%, but the odds of 1.20 imply 83% probability while our estimate is 70%, making it a poor value bet.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.44fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 69.4%

0.0ppshort

Both attacks are consistent and defensive records are leaky, but the odds already price in a high BTTS chance.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.36fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 73.5%

0.0ppshort

High-scoring tendencies exist, but the odds are too short to offer value on Over 2.5.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Assyriska's strong recent form and Stocksund's poor away record give the home side a clear edge, supported by motivation and structural home advantage.
- Assyriska form last 5: W-L-W-W-W (12 pts from 15)
- IFK Stocksund form last 5: L-L-L-W-L (3 pts from 15)
- Assyriska home record: 3W-2D-4L, 21 goals scored, 21 conceded
- IFK Stocksund away record: 1W-1D-7L, 14 goals scored, 17 conceded
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAssyriskaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combining Assyriska's home resilience with Stocksund's away struggles makes the double chance a high-probability outcome.
- Assyriska unbeaten in 4 of last 5 home matches (2W,2D)
- IFK Stocksund have lost 7 of 9 away matches this season
- H2H last 5: Assyriska 2W, 2D, 1L
BetBugs · Double ChancewonAssyriska or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Assyriska's stronger first-half performance and Stocksund's tendency to trail give a slight edge, but draw remains likely.
- Assyriska led at half-time in 47% of matches
- IFK Stocksund trailed at half-time in 47% of matches
- Assyriska first half goal difference: +0.5 per match
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonAssyriskaEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Assyriska's ability to lead at half-time and Stocksund's poor second-half resilience make this a plausible but low-probability HT/FT outcome.
- Assyriska led at half-time in 47% of matches
- Assyriska won 7 of 19 matches overall
- IFK Stocksund lost 12 of 19 matches overall
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonAssyriska / AssyriskaEstimated chance28%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Assyriska's occasional dominance and Stocksund's vulnerability could lead to a win in both halves, but it remains unlikely.
- Assyriska won both halves in 2 of last 15 matches
- IFK Stocksund lost both halves in 4 of last 15 matches
BetBugs · Win Both HalveslostAssyriskaEstimated chance20%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Assyriska's first-half strength and Stocksund's first-half weakness make the double chance a solid option.
- Assyriska led at half-time in 47% of matches
- IFK Stocksund trailed at half-time in 47% of matches
- Assyriska first half goal difference: +0.5
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonAssyriska or DrawEstimated chance70%

Goals5 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high-scoring tendencies and recent H2H meetings consistently produced over 2.5 goals.
- Assyriska average goals per match: 1.7 for, 1.5 against
- IFK Stocksund average goals per match: 1.9 for, 1.9 against
- H2H last 5 meetings: 3, 3, 6, 5, 7 total goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both attacks are consistent and defensive records are leaky, making BTTS a strong likelihood.
- Assyriska scored in 13 of last 15 matches
- IFK Stocksund scored in 12 of last 15 matches
- Both teams scored in 4 of last 5 H2H meetings
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, but the line is high and confidence is limited by variance.
- Assyriska first half goals average: 1.0
- IFK Stocksund first half goals average: 0.7
- Combined first half goals average: 1.7
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Stocksund's second-half scoring tendency and both teams' defensive lapses support over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Assyriska second half goals average: 0.7
- IFK Stocksund second half goals average: 1.2
- Combined second half goals average: 1.9
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
First-half scoring from both sides is possible given their attacking intent, but the probability is moderate.
- Assyriska first half goals: 1.0 per match
- IFK Stocksund first half goals: 0.7 per match
- Both teams scored in first half in 3 of last 5 H2H meetings
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostYesEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Assyriska's defensive record is inconsistent and Stocksund usually find the net, making a home clean sheet unlikely.
- Assyriska kept clean sheets in 4 of last 15 matches
- IFK Stocksund failed to score in only 3 of last 15 matches
- Assyriska conceded in 11 of last 15 matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonIFK Stocksund to scoreEstimated chance65%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Stocksund's defensive frailty and Assyriska's consistent scoring make an away clean sheet highly improbable.
- IFK Stocksund kept clean sheets in 1 of last 15 matches
- Assyriska scored in 13 of last 15 matches
- IFK Stocksund conceded in 14 of last 15 matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonAssyriska to scoreEstimated chance75%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 60% leaves no cushion vs our 45% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Assyriska has struggled to clear Over 2.5 goals

Assyriska has fulfilled 2 of 5 Over 2.5 predictions. The average estimated probability was 59%, but only 40% of matches went over. At home, both predictions hit, while all three away matches stayed under.

Recent evidence for Assyriska5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·Ettan - Norra