FranceCassis - FranceFinished

Predictions graded

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer #152Norway2Moez Echargui #194Tunisia1

Sets 6-7 · 7-5 · 6-1Fri 11 Sept 2026, 11:10 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalHard

Predictions7–188%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageNicolai Budkov Kjaer · 42 places

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Norway

Structured profile lists him at No. 152 with a right-handed, two-handed-backhand game. Reliable public profile details for the remaining fields were not confirmed in this review.

Current ranking: #152
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Moez Echargui

Tunisia

Age 33 with a career-high ranking of No. 134 on 29 December 2025. ITF lists sand/clay as his preferred surface, while ATP describes him as a counterpuncher.

Current ranking: #194
Peak ranking: #134 · 2025
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Sep 2026, 03:25 · Europe/Bucharest

Budkov Kjaer is favored but overpriced at 1.40; model gives him only 62% win probability.

Echargui's recent form and competitive hard-court metrics suggest a closer match, making over 21.5 total games and Echargui +3.5 games the best betting angles.

Context

Budkov Kjaer, 19, is ranked 149 and has a strong first-serve game when it is working. Echargui, 32, is ranked 226 and relies more on grinding from the baseline.
The only previous meeting was a one-sided clay win for Budkov Kjaer, where he won 82% of first-serve points and 64% of return points. That sample is small and on a different surface, so it is not a guarantee, but it shows Budkov Kjaer can overwhelm Echargui when his serve is landing.
- H2H: Budkov Kjaer won 6-1 6-0 on 2026-04-21 (clay).
- In that match, Budkov Kjaer won 82% of first-serve points and 64% of return points; Echargui won only 50% and 27% respectively.
Budkov Kjaer is a 19-year-old Norwegian with a big serve and aggressive baseline game. Echargui is a veteran Tunisian who has spent most of his career on hard courts.
Budkov Kjaer enters this quarter-final after two straight-set wins in Cassis, while Echargui needed three sets to beat Billy Harris in his last match. Budkov Kjaer's hard-court record in the last 15 matches is 5-5, slightly better than Echargui's 6-8, and his first-serve points won is 65.4% compared to Echargui's 67.1%, so the edge is not huge but the recent momentum is with the Norwegian.
- Budkov Kjaer last 15 on hard: 5-5 record, 65.4% first-serve points won.
- Echargui last 15 on hard: 6-8 record, 67.1% first-serve points won.
- Budkov Kjaer's last two matches: 6-4 6-4 vs Balshaw and 6-1 7-6(7) vs Ghazouani Durand.
Echargui is a 32-year-old Tunisian who has played over 680 career matches, mostly on hard courts. His game is built on consistency rather than power.
In his last 15 matches, Echargui has landed only 57.3% of first serves and won just 48.7% of second-serve points. Budkov Kjaer's return points won is 38.2%, which is not elite, but against a weak second serve he should get chances to attack. If Echargui's first serve is off, Budkov Kjaer can control rallies from the start.
- Echargui last 15 overall: first-serve in 57.3%, second-serve points won 48.7%.
- Budkov Kjaer last 15 overall: return points won 38.2%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

1.40fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 71.4%

0.0ppshort

Budkov Kjaer's dominant H2H win and slightly better recent hard-court metrics give him the edge, though Echargui's current tournament form narrows the gap.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Budkov Kjaer's dominant H2H win and slightly better recent hard-court metrics give him the edge, though Echargui's current tournament form narrows the gap.
- H2H: Budkov Kjaer won 6-1 6-0 on clay in April 2026, dominating return points (64% vs 27%).
- Budkov Kjaer last 15 on hard: 5-5 record, 48.3% games won, 38.6% return points won.
- Echargui last 15 on hard: 6-8 record, 48.9% games won, 39.3% return points won.
- Budkov Kjaer ranking 149 vs Echargui 226.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonNicolai Budkov KjaerEstimated chance62%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches average over 22 games, and Echargui's three-set tendencies push the total higher.
- Budkov Kjaer last 15 average games per match: 22.9 (343 games / 15 matches).
- Echargui last 15 average games per match: 24.5 (368 games / 15 matches).
- Echargui's last three matches: 32, 18, 28 games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' first sets average near 10 games, making over 9.5 a reasonable lean despite low confidence.
- Budkov Kjaer last 15 first sets: 6-1, 6-4, 3-6, 5-7, 7-6, 3-6, 6-3, 5-7, 6-2, 3-6, 6-7, 3-6, 4-6, 6-2, 6-4 (avg 9.9 games).
- Echargui last 15 first sets: 7-5, 6-4, 2-6, 4-6, 3-6, 6-4, 6-2, 7-6, 5-7, 4-6, 2-6, 7-5, 4-6, 4-6, 1-6 (avg 9.5 games).
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Echargui's recent competitiveness and similar games-won averages make the +3.5 handicap a reasonable lean.
- Budkov Kjaer last 15 average games won per match: 11.1.
- Echargui last 15 average games won per match: 11.7.
- H2H was lopsided, but current form suggests a closer match.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonMoez Echargui +3.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Budkov Kjaer's strong first-set record and H2H dominance support a first-set win, but Echargui's recent resilience makes this a low-confidence lean.
- Budkov Kjaer first set win conversion career 88%.
- Echargui first set win conversion career 85%.
- Budkov Kjaer won first set in H2H 6-1.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostNicolai Budkov KjaerEstimated chance58%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Echargui's higher double fault rate and both players' recent averages support over 5.5 double faults.
- Budkov Kjaer last 15 double faults per match: 2.6.
- Echargui last 15 double faults per match: 3.6.
- Combined average double faults per match: 6.2.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have moderate tiebreak frequencies and similar win rates, making a tiebreak likely in a competitive match.
- Budkov Kjaer career tiebreak win percentage: 58%.
- Echargui career tiebreak win percentage: 56%.
- Echargui has played tiebreaks in 3 of last 15 matches; Budkov Kjaer in 4 of last 15.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace averages sit right at the line, giving a slight lean to over based on recent serving numbers.
- Budkov Kjaer last 15 aces per match: 3.9.
- Echargui last 15 aces per match: 3.7.
- Combined average aces per match: 7.6.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance52%

Prediction history

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer has been unreliable when projected to win

He has fulfilled 5 of 12 win predictions, a 42% success rate. The average estimated probability was 59.9%, but only 7.2 wins were expected, indicating underperformance. All seven missed predictions ended in losses, with no draws or wins.

Recent evidence for Nicolai Budkov Kjaer12 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

21 Jul·Tampere - Finland

#118Nicolai Budkov Kjaer0-2#269Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

BetBugsNicolai Budkov Kjaer to win·65%

Missed

21 Jul 2026

Tampere - Finland

#118Nicolai Budkov Kjaer0-2#269Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer to win

65%probability

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg won

Missed

14 Jul·ATP Bastad

#118Nicolai Budkov Kjaer0-2#138Andrea Pellegrino

BetBugsNicolai Budkov Kjaer to win·58%

Missed

14 Jul 2026

ATP Bastad

#118Nicolai Budkov Kjaer0-2#138Andrea Pellegrino

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer to win

58%probability

Andrea Pellegrino won

Missed

25 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#121Nicolai Budkov Kjaer1-3#137Otto Virtanen

BetBugsNicolai Budkov Kjaer to win·62%

Missed

25 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#121Nicolai Budkov Kjaer1-3#137Otto Virtanen

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer to win

62%probability

Otto Virtanen won

Missed

24 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#121Nicolai Budkov Kjaer2-0#209Matej Dodig

BetBugsNicolai Budkov Kjaer to win·58%

Matched

24 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#121Nicolai Budkov Kjaer2-0#209Matej Dodig

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer to win

58%probability

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer won

Matched

22 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#121Nicolai Budkov Kjaer2-1#237Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

BetBugsNicolai Budkov Kjaer to win·72%

Matched

22 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#121Nicolai Budkov Kjaer2-1#237Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer to win

72%probability

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer won

Matched

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W6-1 6-0Nicolai Budkov Kjaer#149vMoez Echargui#226Apr 21, 2026

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

7W 8L

6-1 7-6(7)#595Yanis Ghazouani Durand 6-4 6-4#252Felix Balshaw 6-3 6-1#152Mark Lajal

7-5 6-4#106Christopher O'Connell

7-6(2) 4-6 6-4#258Maks Kasnikowski

6-3 6-1#100Jesper De Jong

6-3 6-1#124Bu Yunchaokete

7-5 6-4#108Kyrian Jacquet

6-2 3-6 6-4#91Hugo Gaston

6-3 6-4#88Sho Shimabukuro

7-6(4) 6-3#332Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

6-3 6-2#129Andrea Pellegrino

4-6 6-4 6-4 7-5#109Otto Virtanen

6-2 7-6(4)#254Matej Dodig

6-4 6-7(6) 6-1#282Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

Moez Echargui

6W 9L

7-5 1-6 7-6(2)#161Billy Harris 6-4 6-2#343Lucas Poullain 2-6 6-4 6-4#165Jack Pinnington Jones

6-4 6-4#140Hugo Dellien

6-3 6-4#47Hubert Hurkacz

6-4 2-6 7-6(5)#200Moise Kouame

6-2 5-0 ret.#77Camilo Ugo Carabelli

7-6(5) 7-6(5)#109Otto Virtanen

5-7 6-2 6-4#107Michael Zheng

6-4 6-3#451Spencer Johnson

6-2 7-5#314Andres Martin

7-5 6-1—Jordan Lee

6-4 6-4#139Lloyd Harris

4-6 7-6(2) 7-6(4)#368Dhakshineswar Suresh

6-1 5-7 6-2 6-4#91Hugo Gaston

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

NKNicolai Budkov KjaerKjaer

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Moez EcharguiEcharguiME

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer carries the stronger recent form — Moez Echargui's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 4–0 · 1 even

1st Serve In62.3%+5.0pp57.3%

1st Serve Won68.2%+2.1pp66.1%

2nd Serve Won50.4%+1.7pp48.7%

Aces / Match3.9—3.7

Double Faults / Match2.61.0 fewer3.6

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won38.2%+1.0pp39.2%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted33.9%+7.9pp41.8%

Break Pts Saved56.6%+0.8pp57.4%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won49.7%+0.9pp48.8%

Serve · 4–0 · 1 even

62.3%1st Serve In+5.0pp57.3%

68.2%1st Serve Won+2.1pp66.1%

50.4%2nd Serve Won+1.7pp48.7%

3.9Aces / Match—3.7

2.6Double Faults / Match1.0 fewer3.6

Return · 0–1

38.2%Return Pts Won+1.0pp39.2%

Pressure · 0–2

33.9%Break Pts Converted+7.9pp41.8%

56.6%Break Pts Saved+0.8pp57.4%

Points · 1–0

49.7%Total Pts Won+0.9pp48.8%