SpainMallorca - SpainFinished

Predictions graded

Moez Echargui #194Tunisia1Jack Pinnington Jones #172United Kingdom2

Sets 6-2 · 4-6 · 4-6Tue 1 Sept 2026, 10:10 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions5–363%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJack Pinnington Jones · 22 places

Moez Echargui

Tunisia

Age 33 with a career-high ranking of No. 134 on 29 December 2025. ITF lists sand/clay as his preferred surface, while ATP describes him as a counterpuncher.

Current ranking: #194
Peak ranking: #134 · 2025
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Jack Pinnington Jones

United Kingdom

Reached a career-high ranking of No. 132 on May 18, 2026. His 2026 ITF record was strongest on hard courts at 11-7, compared with 3-5 on clay and 1-3 on grass.

Current ranking: #172
Peak ranking: #132 · 2026
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Sep 2026, 15:13 · Europe/Bucharest

Pinnington Jones is a moderate favorite based on hard-court form and serve stats, but the 1.03 odds offer no value.

The match is likely to be close, with over 21.5 total games and over 2.5 sets being the best betting angles.

Context

Echargui, 226th, is a right-hander with a two-handed backhand and a career win rate of 57.7%.
His recent hard-court sample shows a 36.4% win rate and only 36.7% return points won, which could make it hard for him to pressure Pinnington Jones's serve. However, his first-serve points won (68.1%) is solid, so he may still hold his own service games.
- Echargui is 4-7 on hard courts in his last 11 matches.
- He has won only 36.7% of return points on hard courts in that span.
- He has converted 46.4% of break points on hard courts, but his overall return game is below average.
Echargui and Pinnington Jones meet in the first round of the Manacor Challenger on 1 September.
The match is scheduled on Pista 2, an outdoor hard court. This surface suits Pinnington Jones slightly better based on recent hard-court serve and return numbers, giving him a moderate edge.
- The event listing identifies a Challenger first-round match in Manacor on 1 September.
- The match detail lists hard as the surface and Pista 2 as the court.
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Sep 2026, 15:11 · Europe/BucharestTennis.com Manacor match pagewww.tennis.com · 1 Sep 2026Tennis Explorer match detailwww.tennisexplorer.com · 1 Sep 2026
Pinnington Jones, 165th, is a right-hander with a two-handed backhand and a career win rate of 60.5%.
His second-serve points won is just 44.8% in the last 15 matches, and on hard courts it is 47.1%. Echargui's return game is not strong, but if he can target the second serve, he may create break chances.
- Pinnington Jones has won 44.8% of second-serve points in his last 15 matches.
- On hard courts, his second-serve points won is 47.1%.
- He has a double-fault rate of 4.2 per match overall.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Jack Pinnington Jones

1.03fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 97.1%

0.0ppshort

Pinnington Jones has a slight edge on hard courts and better serve/return numbers in the recent window, but the quoted odds imply near certainty, far above the model estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.03
The read
Pinnington Jones has a slight edge on hard courts and better serve/return numbers in the recent window, making him a moderate favorite.
- Last 15 overall: Pinnington Jones 6-9, Echargui 6-9; both 40% win rate.
- Hard surface last 15: Pinnington Jones 4-4 (50%), Echargui 4-7 (36.4%).
- Pinnington Jones first serve points won 71.1% vs Echargui 68.1% overall.
- Pinnington Jones return points won 37.4% vs Echargui 34.9% overall.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonJack Pinnington JonesEstimated chance55%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches average well over 21.5 total games, supporting an over on the total games line.
- Echargui last 15 average games per match: 24.7 (371 games / 15 matches).
- Pinnington Jones last 15 average games per match: 25.2 (378 games / 15 matches).
- Both players have similar games won percentages: Echargui 46.9%, Pinnington Jones 48.9%.
- Recent hard-court matches for both often go to 22+ games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be competitive, with both players' recent first sets averaging near or above 9.5 games.
- Echargui first set average games: 9.5 (based on recent form).
- Pinnington Jones first set average games: 9.8 (based on recent form).
- Both players have similar first set competitiveness, with many sets going to 10+ games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance58%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The competitive nature of the matchup and both players' tendency to go to three sets support an over on total sets.
- Echargui has played 3 sets in 5 of his last 15 matches (33%).
- Pinnington Jones has played 3 sets in 5 of his last 15 matches (33%).
- Both players have similar set win percentages: Echargui 40.5%, Pinnington Jones 43.2%.
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Pinnington Jones' stronger serve and hard-court set win rate give him a slight edge in the opening set.
- Pinnington Jones first serve points won 71.1% overall, 69.6% on hard.
- Echargui first serve points won 68.1% overall, 68.1% on hard.
- Pinnington Jones has won 50% of sets on hard in last 15; Echargui 40%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostJack Pinnington JonesEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace averages are close to the 8.5 line, with Pinnington Jones' serve giving a slight lean to the over.
- Pinnington Jones averages 5.1 aces per match overall, 4.5 on hard.
- Echargui averages 3.5 aces per match overall, 3.5 on hard.
- Combined average aces per match: 8.6 overall, 8.0 on hard.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The competitive nature of this matchup and both players' tiebreak frequency suggest a decent chance of at least one tiebreak.
- Echargui has played 3 tiebreaks in last 15 matches (20% of matches).
- Pinnington Jones has played 4 tiebreaks in last 15 matches (27% of matches).
- Both players have tiebreak win percentages around 55% career.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault averages are near the 7.5 line, with overall numbers slightly favoring the over.
- Pinnington Jones averages 4.2 double faults per match overall, 3.4 on hard.
- Echargui averages 3.5 double faults per match overall, 3.5 on hard.
- Combined average double faults per match: 7.7 overall, 6.9 on hard.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance52%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The heavy favorite price on Pinnington Jones is a trap; recent form does not support such a high probability.

Prediction history

Jack Pinnington-Jones has struggled to convert projected wins

Jack Pinnington-Jones has fulfilled 2 of 7 predictions when projected to win. His average estimated probability was 60.4%, but he won only 2 matches, with all 5 misses ending in losses. The current prediction of 55% is within his historical range of 52-72%, but his recent results show a pattern of underperformance relative to expectations.

Recent evidence for Jack Pinnington-Jones7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

12 Jun·Ilkley - Great Britain

#355Filippo Romano2-1#133Jack Pinnington-Jones

BetBugsJack Pinnington-Jones to win·65%

Missed

12 Jun 2026

Ilkley - Great Britain

#355Filippo Romano2-1#133Jack Pinnington-Jones

Jack Pinnington-Jones to win

65%probability

Filippo Romano won

Missed

8 Jun·Ilkley - Great Britain

#227Harry Wendelken0-2#132Jack Pinnington-Jones

BetBugsJack Pinnington-Jones to win·62%

Matched

8 Jun 2026

Ilkley - Great Britain

#227Harry Wendelken0-2#132Jack Pinnington-Jones

Jack Pinnington-Jones to win

62%probability

Jack Pinnington-Jones won

Matched

8 Jun·Ilkley - Great Britain

#224Harry Wendelken0-2#133Jack Pinnington-Jones

BetBugsJack Pinnington-Jones to win·72%

Matched

8 Jun 2026

Ilkley - Great Britain

#224Harry Wendelken0-2#133Jack Pinnington-Jones

Jack Pinnington-Jones to win

72%probability

Jack Pinnington-Jones won

Matched

2 Jun·Birmingham - Great Britain

#132Jack Pinnington-Jones1-2#96Aleksandar Vukic

BetBugsJack Pinnington-Jones to win·55%

Missed

2 Jun 2026

Birmingham - Great Britain

#132Jack Pinnington-Jones1-2#96Aleksandar Vukic

Jack Pinnington-Jones to win

55%probability

Aleksandar Vukic won

Missed

13 May·Oeiras - Portugal

#190Colton Smith2-0#137Jack Pinnington-Jones

BetBugsJack Pinnington-Jones to win·62%

Missed

13 May 2026

Oeiras - Portugal

#190Colton Smith2-0#137Jack Pinnington-Jones

Jack Pinnington-Jones to win

62%probability

Colton Smith won

Missed

Previous match context available

Moez Echargui

6W 9L

6-4 6-4#140Hugo Dellien

6-3 6-4#47Hubert Hurkacz

6-4 2-6 7-6(5)#200Moise Kouame

6-2 5-0 ret.#77Camilo Ugo Carabelli

7-6(5) 7-6(5)#109Otto Virtanen

5-7 6-2 6-4#107Michael Zheng

6-4 6-3#451Spencer Johnson

6-2 7-5#314Andres Martin

7-5 6-1—Jordan Lee

6-4 6-4#139Lloyd Harris

4-6 7-6(2) 7-6(4)#368Dhakshineswar Suresh

6-1 5-7 6-2 6-4#91Hugo Gaston

6-4 3-6 7-6(6)#193Keegan Smith

3-6 7-5 6-3#195Edas Butvilas

6-3 6-4#72Jaime Faria

Jack Pinnington Jones

6W 9L

2-6 7-6(6) 6-3#109Otto Virtanen

7-6(4) 6-4#400Trevor Svajda

6-2 6-4#184Andre Ilagan

4-6 7-5 7-6(2)#211Andres Andrade

6-2 2-0 ret.#214Felix Gill

6-4 6-2#192David Jorda Sanchis

7-6(5) 6-4#608Millen Hurrion

7-5 6-1#110Toby Samuel

6-3 7-6(5) 7-5#17Brandon Nakashima

7-5 6-4#141Jack Draper

5-7 6-3 7-5#83Marco Trungelliti

6-4 4-6 7-6(3)#48Denis Shapovalov

7-5 5-7 6-3#319Filippo Romano

6-4 6-4#196Harry Wendelken

2-6 6-4 6-3#96Aleksandar Vukic

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MEMoez EcharguiEchargui

Last 15

4–5

9 core stats · 0 even

Jack Pinnington JonesJonesJJ

Jack Pinnington Jones carries the stronger recent form — Moez Echargui's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In58.2%+3.1pp61.3%

1st Serve Won68.1%+3.0pp71.1%

2nd Serve Won51.2%+6.4pp44.8%

Aces / Match3.5+1.65.1

Double Faults / Match3.50.7 fewer4.2

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won34.9%+2.5pp37.4%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted44.2%+2.3pp41.9%

Break Pts Saved57.9%+0.8pp57.1%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won48.0%+1.2pp49.2%

Serve · 2–3

58.2%1st Serve In+3.1pp61.3%

68.1%1st Serve Won+3.0pp71.1%

51.2%2nd Serve Won+6.4pp44.8%

3.5Aces / Match+1.65.1

3.5Double Faults / Match0.7 fewer4.2

Return · 0–1

34.9%Return Pts Won+2.5pp37.4%

Pressure · 2–0

44.2%Break Pts Converted+2.3pp41.9%

57.9%Break Pts Saved+0.8pp57.1%

Points · 0–1

48.0%Total Pts Won+1.2pp49.2%

Moez Echargui

Jack Pinnington Jones

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Jack Pinnington Jones

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 2 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Jack Pinnington Jones @ 1.03

Moez Echargui

Jack Pinnington Jones

Stat Battle