FranceCassis - FranceFinished

Predictions graded

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer #152Norway2Yanis Ghazouani Durand #584France0

Sets 6-1 · 7-6Thu 10 Sept 2026, 10:00 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions1–713%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageNicolai Budkov Kjaer · 432 places

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Norway

Structured profile lists him at No. 152 with a right-handed, two-handed-backhand game. Reliable public profile details for the remaining fields were not confirmed in this review.

Current ranking: #152
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Yanis Ghazouani Durand

France

Ghazouani Durand, 26, is the 183cm right-hander in this matchup. He identified hard courts as his preferred surface in July 2026.

Current ranking: #584
Peak ranking: #565 · 2026
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Sep 2026, 03:23 · Europe/Bucharest

Yanis Ghazouani Durand is in far better form than Nicolai Budkov Kjaer, with superior return stats and a 3-0 record in Cassis.

Despite the ranking gap, Ghazouani Durand offers huge betting value at 5.75 odds, with a model edge of 44.6 points. Expect a competitive match with over 21.5 total games and over 7.5 double faults.

Context

Ghazouani Durand, 595th, has been competing primarily at ITF and Challenger level, while Budkov Kjaer, 149th, has faced higher-ranked opposition in recent weeks.
Ghazouani Durand's 73.3% win rate in his last 15 matches is much stronger than Budkov Kjaer's 40%, but the Frenchman's wins have come mostly against players ranked outside the top 500. Budkov Kjaer has faced several top-150 opponents and lost to them, so the form gap may be inflated by the level of competition.
- Ghazouani Durand has won 11 of his last 15 matches (73.3%), while Budkov Kjaer has won 6 of 15 (40%).
- Ghazouani Durand's recent wins include opponents ranked 572, 662, and unranked, while Budkov Kjaer has faced opponents ranked 88, 91, 100, 106, and 108 in his last 15.
- Budkov Kjaer's last five matches include losses to Mark Lajal (152), Christopher O'Connell (106), and Jesper De Jong (100).
Ghazouani Durand has played three matches in Cassis, including qualifying, totaling 4h20m44s on court. Budkov Kjaer has played one match for 1h26m48s.
Ghazouani Durand arrives with substantially more accumulated court time and one fewer rest window than Budkov Kjaer. That workload could matter late in a best-of-three match, though the extra matches also mean he is more match-tested this week.
- The recorded Cassis event totals are three matches and 4h20m44s for Ghazouani Durand, against one match and 1h26m48s for Budkov Kjaer.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Sep 2026, 03:22 · Europe/BucharestCassis Challenger match pagewww.stevegtennis.com · 10 Sep 2026
Budkov Kjaer has a balanced career surface record but has been inconsistent on hard courts in recent months.
On hard courts in the last 15 matches, Budkov Kjaer has a 44.4% win rate and has lost to several players ranked above him. Ghazouani Durand has won all three of his recent hard-court matches, but those wins came against lower-ranked opponents in the same Cassis Challenger qualifying and early rounds, so the surface edge is not yet proven against stronger competition.
- Budkov Kjaer's last 15 hard-court record: 4 wins, 5 losses (44.4%).
- Ghazouani Durand's last 15 hard-court record: 3 wins, 0 losses (100%).
- Ghazouani Durand's hard-court wins came against Maxime Janvier (572), Leo Raquillet (662), and Gray Voelzke (unranked).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 5.75
The read
Ghazouani Durand's superior recent return game and break conversion, combined with a much stronger last-15 record, give him the edge despite the ranking gap.
- Last 15 overall record: Ghazouani Durand 11-4 (73.3%) vs Budkov Kjaer 6-9 (40%)
- Last 15 return points won: Ghazouani Durand 45.9% vs Budkov Kjaer 37.1%
- Last 15 break points converted: Ghazouani Durand 45.8% vs Budkov Kjaer 31.4%
- Current Cassis form: Ghazouani Durand 3-0 on hard, Budkov Kjaer 1-0
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostYanis Ghazouani DurandEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined recent match lengths and potential for a competitive three-setter support over 21.5 total games.
- Budkov Kjaer last 15 average total games per match: 23.3 (349 games / 15 matches)
- Ghazouani Durand last 15 average total games per match: 20.5 (308 games / 15 matches)
- Both players have played multiple three-set matches recently, increasing total games
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be competitive, with both players' recent first-set game averages near the over line.
- Budkov Kjaer last 15 first set average games: 9.7 (146 games / 15 first sets)
- Ghazouani Durand last 15 first set average games: 9.3 (139 games / 15 first sets)
- Both players have had multiple first sets decided by 7-5 or 7-6 recently
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Ghazouani Durand's superior recent game-winning percentage suggests he could cover a -2.5 game handicap.
- Ghazouani Durand last 15 games won percentage: 56.5%
- Budkov Kjaer last 15 games won percentage: 47.0%
- Ghazouani Durand has won 62.9% of games on hard in last 3 matches
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostYanis Ghazouani Durand -2.5Estimated chance50%

Sets0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ghazouani Durand's strong recent first-set performance and current tournament momentum make him the likely set 1 winner.
- Ghazouani Durand first set win rate in last 15: 10 of 15 matches (66.7%)
- Budkov Kjaer first set win rate in last 15: 6 of 15 matches (40%)
- Ghazouani Durand has won first set in all 3 Cassis matches this week
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostYanis Ghazouani DurandEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ghazouani Durand's consistent second-set performance and return advantage make him the likely set 2 winner.
- Ghazouani Durand has won set 2 in 10 of his last 15 matches
- Budkov Kjaer has won set 2 in only 5 of his last 15 matches
- Ghazouani Durand's return game strength often leads to second-set breaks
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostYanis Ghazouani DurandEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With both players frequently going to three sets recently, the match has a reasonable chance of exceeding 2.5 sets.
- Budkov Kjaer last 15: 6 three-set matches (40%)
- Ghazouani Durand last 15: 6 three-set matches (40%)
- Both players have shown ability to extend matches against similar opposition
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ghazouani Durand's high double fault rate alone nearly reaches the line, making over 7.5 likely.
- Ghazouani Durand last 15 double faults per match: 5.1
- Budkov Kjaer last 15 double faults per match: 2.6
- Combined average double faults per match: 7.7
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace rates suggest a total near 7.5, and a three-set match would likely push it over.
- Budkov Kjaer last 15 aces per match: 4.3
- Ghazouani Durand last 15 aces per match: 2.7
- Combined average aces per match: 7.0, with potential for more in a longer match
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance55%

Previous match context available

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

6W 9L

6-4 6-4#252Felix Balshaw 6-3 6-1#152Mark Lajal

7-5 6-4#106Christopher O'Connell

7-6(2) 4-6 6-4#258Maks Kasnikowski

6-3 6-1#100Jesper De Jong

6-3 6-1#124Bu Yunchaokete

7-5 6-4#108Kyrian Jacquet

6-2 3-6 6-4#91Hugo Gaston

6-3 6-4#88Sho Shimabukuro

7-6(4) 6-3#332Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

6-3 6-2#129Andrea Pellegrino

4-6 6-4 6-4 7-5#109Otto Virtanen

6-2 7-6(4)#254Matej Dodig

6-4 6-7(6) 6-1#282Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

3-6 6-3 6-2#146Mackenzie Mcdonald

Yanis Ghazouani Durand

11W 4L

2-6 6-3 7-5#572Maxime Janvier 6-1 6-3#662Leo Raquillet 6-3 6-2—Gray Voelzke 7-5 1-6 6-3#893Szymon Kielan

2-6 6-2 6-2#861Nicolas Parizzia

6-2 6-1#693Gabriele Bosio

0-6 6-4 6-2#893Peter Buldorini

6-3 6-7(4) 6-4—Gabriele Crivellaro

6-1 6-2#361Geoffrey Blancaneaux

6-1 6-3—Arthur Bellegy

6-2 2-6 6-2—Pablo Pradat

6-3 6-1#386Laurent Lokoli

6-3 6-2#584Alexander Weis

6-2 6-4—Denis Constantin Spiridon

6-1 6-4#891Axel Garcian

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

NKNicolai Budkov KjaerKjaer

Last 15

4–5

9 core stats · 0 even

Yanis Ghazouani DurandDurandYD

Yanis Ghazouani Durand carries the stronger recent form — Nicolai Budkov Kjaer's route runs through serve.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In62.4%+4.4pp58.0%

1st Serve Won67.9%+1.8pp69.7%

2nd Serve Won51.1%+5.2pp45.9%

Aces / Match4.3+1.62.7

Double Faults / Match2.62.5 fewer5.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won37.1%+8.8pp45.9%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted31.4%+14.4pp45.8%

Break Pts Saved57.4%+5.1pp62.5%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.2%+3.6pp52.8%

Serve · 4–1

62.4%1st Serve In+4.4pp58.0%

67.9%1st Serve Won+1.8pp69.7%

51.1%2nd Serve Won+5.2pp45.9%

4.3Aces / Match+1.62.7

2.6Double Faults / Match2.5 fewer5.1

Return · 0–1

37.1%Return Pts Won+8.8pp45.9%

Pressure · 0–2

31.4%Break Pts Converted+14.4pp45.8%

57.4%Break Pts Saved+5.1pp62.5%

Points · 0–1

49.2%Total Pts Won+3.6pp52.8%