United KingdomATP WimbledonFinished

Predictions graded

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer #121Norway2Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva #237Brazil1

Sets 6-4 · 6-7 · 6-1Mon 22 Jun 2026, 13:26 Predictions gradedQ1Grass

Predictions3–633%

Edges3–350%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageNicolai Budkov Kjaer · 116 places

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Norway

ATP bio says grass is his favourite surface and that he is coached by his father, Alexander Kjaer. Structured data lists him at No. 121 entering this match.

Current ranking: #121
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

Brazil

Structured reference provides his ranking, height and handedness. The requested search set did not return a reliable ATP or Wimbledon profile page with age, career-high or preferred-surface data before this response.

Current ranking: #237
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 22 Jun 2026, 01:11 · Europe/Bucharest

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer's grass-court pedigree and superior serve make him a strong favorite against grass debutant Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva.

The best betting value lies in under 21.5 total games and Kjaer -4.5 game handicap, as the match is expected to be straightforward. Kjaer's aggressive style and recent top-50 wins underscore his edge in this Wimbledon qualifying clash.

Context

Reis Da Silva's career surface record shows 0 wins and 0 losses on grass across all years.
- His entire 490-match career has been on clay (216 wins) and hard courts (54 wins), with no grass or indoor hard matches.
- Grass is a specialized surface where movement, footwork, and return timing differ significantly from clay and hard courts.
ATP bio confirms grass is Kjaer's favorite surface and describes his style as aggressive with the serve as his favorite shot.
- Kjaer wins 68.2% of first-serve points and has a 5.5% ace rate, compared to Reis Da Silva's 65.7% and 3.6%.
- Kjaer's 3-3 career grass record includes all wins in 2025-2026, showing recent surface competence.
In April 2026, Kjaer defeated Denis Shapovalov (ranked 41) 6-2 6-1 and Daniil Medvedev (ranked 7) retired after losing the first set.
- Reis Da Silva's best win in the last 15 matches was against Alex Barrena (ranked 207) on clay.
- Kjaer's recent losses have come against solid grass-court players like Mackenzie McDonald and August Holmgren, while Reis Da Silva has lost to players ranked outside the top 250 on clay.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

1.15fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 87%

0.0ppshort

Kjaer's superior serve, grass-court experience, and higher-quality recent wins give him a clear edge over Reis Da Silva, who has never played a professional grass match.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.15
The read
Kjaer's superior serve, grass-court experience, and higher-quality recent wins give him a clear edge over Reis Da Silva, who has never played a professional grass match.
- Kjaer has a 3-3 career grass record vs Reis Da Silva's 0-0, with Kjaer's grass wins coming in 2025-2026.
- Kjaer's serve stats (68.2% first-serve win, 5.5% ace rate) are stronger than Reis Da Silva's (65.7%, 3.6%) on all surfaces.
- Kjaer's recent form includes wins over top-50 players (Shapovalov, Medvedev) on hard courts, while Reis Da Silva's best recent win is vs #207 Barrena on clay.
- Intel confirms grass is Kjaer's favorite surface and his aggressive serve-based style suits Wimbledon.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonNicolai Budkov KjaerEstimated chance72%

Games1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Kjaer's dominant serve and Reis Da Silva's inexperience on grass point to a relatively short match with few extended games.
- Kjaer's recent losses on grass were in straight sets with total games of 21, 19, and 22.
- Reis Da Silva's last five losses averaged 16.6 total games, with none exceeding 22 games.
- Both players have break-point conversion rates around 44-45%, suggesting efficient service holds and quick sets.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Kjaer's superior serve and grass-court comfort should allow him to cover a -3.5 game handicap against a player with no grass experience.
- Kjaer's average games won per match in his last 10 is 11.2, while Reis Da Silva's is 10.1.
- On grass, Kjaer's serve advantage should widen the game differential.
- Reis Da Silva's return points won (41%) is slightly better than Kjaer's (40%), but Kjaer's serve is more dominant.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonNicolai Budkov Kjaer -3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kjaer's strong serve and Reis Da Silva's adjustment to grass may result in a low-game first set.
- Kjaer's first-set scores in his last 5 matches: 3-6, 0-6, 3-6, 6-7, 2-6 (average 8.4 games).
- Reis Da Silva's first-set scores in his last 5: 4-6, 7-5, 6-3, 2-6, 6-2 (average 9.2 games).
- Kjaer's serve dominance on grass could lead to a quick first set.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Momentum from a likely first-set win should help Kjaer control the second set with few games.
- Kjaer's second-set scores in his last 5: 6-3, 6-7, 7-6, 6-2, 6-4 (average 9.6 games).
- Reis Da Silva's second-set scores in his last 5: 0-6, 6-0, 5-7, 4-6, 6-4 (average 9.4 games).
- If Kjaer wins the first set, he often closes out the second efficiently.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Kjaer's high first-set win rate and grass-court serve advantage make him likely to take the opening set against a grass novice.
- Kjaer's first-set win conversion rate is 88% career, indicating strong starts.
- Reis Da Silva's first-set win conversion is 83%, but his overall win rate is lower (55.1% vs 61.4%).
- Kjaer's serve is more effective on grass, likely giving him an early advantage in the match.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonNicolai Budkov KjaerEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.53
The read
Kjaer's ability to close out matches efficiently, combined with Reis Da Silva's struggles in deciding sets, makes a straight-sets victory likely.
- Kjaer has won 6 of his last 10 matches in straight sets, including all three grass wins.
- Reis Da Silva has lost 7 of his last 10 matches in straight sets, with only one three-set win in that span.
- Kjaer's first-serve win percentage (68.2%) and break-point save rate (58.7%) are better than Reis Da Silva's (65.7%, 58.2%).
BetBugs · Set BettinglostNicolai Budkov Kjaer 2-0Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.53
The read
Both players' recent patterns and Kjaer's dominance on serve suggest the match will not go to a deciding set.
- Kjaer's last three grass matches all ended in straight sets.
- Reis Da Silva has played only one three-set match in his last 10 outings.
- Kjaer's 88% first-set win conversion rate often leads to straight-set wins.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Kjaer's ability to break serve and hold comfortably on grass reduces the likelihood of a tiebreak.
- Kjaer's tiebreak win rate is 58%, but his matches often avoid tiebreaks due to early breaks.
- Reis Da Silva's tiebreak win rate is 55%, but he has played only 2 tiebreaks in his last 10 matches.
- Kjaer's break-point conversion rate (45.2%) is slightly higher than Reis Da Silva's (44.1%).
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Grass courts favor big servers, and Kjaer's ace rate should increase, pushing the total aces over 8.5.
- Kjaer averages 5.5 aces per match on all surfaces, but grass typically boosts ace counts.
- Reis Da Silva averages 3.6 aces per match, but his serve is less effective on faster surfaces.
- In Kjaer's last grass match (vs Holmgren), he likely had a higher ace count given the surface.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 8.5Estimated chance55%

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

8W 7L

3-6 6-3 6-2#128Mackenzie Mcdonald

6-0 7-6(4)#143August Holmgren

6-3 7-6(3)#128Mackenzie Mcdonald

7-6(2) 6-2#228Tom Gentzsch

2-6 6-4 6-2#215Gilles Arnaud Bailly

6-4 6-4#50Miomir Kecmanovic

6-7(8) 6-1 6-4#541Jakub Paul

6-3 6-2—Sergi Fita Juan

6-4 6-2#110Dalibor Svrcina

6-7(5) 7-6(3) 6-3#160Otto Virtanen

6-3 6-2#7Daniil Medvedev

6-2 6-1#41Denis Shapovalov

5-3 ret.#102Reilly Opelka

6-1 6-0#150Moez Echargui

6-4 6-4#124Francesco Maestrelli

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

8W 7L

6-4 6-0#283Michele Ribecai

7-5 6-0#268Martin Krumich

6-3 5-7 6-3#461Milos Karol

6-2 6-4#175Zsombor Piros

6-2 6-4#538Alexander Donski

7-6(12) 7-6(6)#262Diego Dedura

6-3 3-6 6-3#207Alex Barrena

7-6(4) 6-1#227Lautaro Midon

4-6 6-3 6-4#129Vilius Gaubas

6-4 6-4#275Calvin Hemery

7-5 6-2#151Elmer Moller

6-4 6-1#219Luka Pavlovic

6-4 1-0 ret.#196Clement Tabur

6-2 2-6 6-4#414Jack Kennedy

6-4 4-6 6-4#241Pedro Boscardin Dias

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 21.5

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer -4.5

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer 2-0

Under 2.5

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva