United KingdomATP WimbledonFinished

Predictions graded

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer #121Norway2Matej Dodig #2090

Sets 6-2 · 7-6Wed 24 Jun 2026, 16:40 Predictions gradedQ2Grass

Predictions4–450%

Edges2–250%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageNicolai Budkov Kjaer · 88 places

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Norway

Norwegian right-hander born in 2006. ATP bio lists grass as his favourite surface, and he won the Wimbledon boys' singles title in 2024.

Current ranking: #121
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Matej Dodig

Croatian right-hander born in July 2005. Public sources reviewed show a career-high singles ranking of No. 199 on 30 March 2026, but no reliable official preferred-surface note surfaced in the required search set.

Current ranking: #209
Peak ranking: #199 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Jun 2026, 06:30 · Europe/Bucharest

Budkov Kjaer's grass pedigree and Dodig's heavy Q1 workload tilt the match slightly toward the Norwegian, but the value lies in a close contest.

Back over 22.5 games and a tie-break in the match, while the 2-1 correct score for Budkov Kjaer offers a big edge.

Context

ATP bio lists grass as his favourite surface.
- He won the 2024 Wimbledon boys' singles title.
- His 2026 grass record is 1-3, but the losses came against higher-ranked opponents (McDonald, Holmgren, Gentzsch).
Q1 match lasted three sets with tie-breaks in the second and third.
- Dodig saved his best for the tie-breaks, winning them 7-0 and 7-5.
- He has played three-setters in three of his last five matches, indicating a pattern of extended battles.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Budkov Kjaer's grass affinity and junior Wimbledon title give him a surface-fit edge, while Dodig's heavier Q1 workload and limited grass experience tilt the match in Budkov Kjaer's favour.
- Budkov Kjaer won Wimbledon boys' singles in 2024 and lists grass as his favourite surface (ATP bio).
- Career grass record: 7-6 (53.8%) vs Dodig 1-0 (100% but only 1 match).
- Budkov Kjaer's recent form: 3-2 in last 5, including a Q1 win 6-4 6-7 6-1; Dodig needed a 3-set comeback in Q1.
- H2H: Dodig won 7-6 7-5 on indoor hard in Feb 2026, but Budkov Kjaer had higher return points won (44% vs 47%) and break point conversion (44% vs 31%).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonNicolai Budkov KjaerEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Recent match totals and the tight H2H suggest a close contest likely exceeding 22.5 games, especially with both players' tiebreak tendencies.
- Budkov Kjaer's last 5 matches averaged 22.4 total games; Dodig's averaged 24.6.
- H2H match had 25 games (7-6, 7-5).
- Both players have high tiebreak rates: Budkov Kjaer 57% career, Dodig 55% career.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 22.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent set 1 game totals and the H2H indicate a tight first set likely exceeding 9.5 games.
- Budkov Kjaer's Q1 set 1: 10 games (6-4); Dodig's Q1 set 1: 9 games (3-6).
- H2H set 1: 13 games (7-6).
- Both players have strong first-set win conversion rates, suggesting competitive opening sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent second-set game totals and the competitive nature of the matchup suggest another set likely over 9.5 games.
- Budkov Kjaer's Q1 set 2: 13 games (6-7); Dodig's Q1 set 2: 13 games (7-6).
- H2H set 2: 12 games (7-5).
- Both players have shown resilience in second sets, often leading to extended games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Budkov Kjaer's superior first-set conversion rate and recent Q1 set 1 win suggest a slight edge to start the match.
- Budkov Kjaer's first-set win conversion rate: 89% career, indicating strong starts.
- Dodig's first-set win conversion: 85%, also solid but slightly lower.
- Budkov Kjaer won set 1 in his Q1 match 6-4; Dodig lost set 1 in his Q1 match 3-6.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonNicolai Budkov KjaerEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The frequency of three-setters in recent matches, especially for Dodig, and the competitive nature of the H2H support a match going the distance.
- Dodig has gone to 3 sets in 3 of his last 5 matches; Budkov Kjaer in 2 of his last 5.
- H2H was a straight-set match but with two tight sets (7-6, 7-5).
- Both players have similar tiebreak win rates (~55-57%), increasing the chance of extended sets.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20
The read
The high frequency of tiebreaks in both players' recent matches and the tight H2H make a tiebreak in this match very likely.
- Budkov Kjaer's tiebreak win rate: 57% career; Dodig's: 55%.
- H2H featured a tiebreak in the first set.
- Both players have played multiple tiebreaks recently: Budkov Kjaer 3 in last 5 matches, Dodig 4 in last 5.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Given both players' double fault rates and the H2H count, a total over 5.5 double faults is probable over a best-of-3 match.
- Budkov Kjaer's double fault rate: 3.7% (378 in 159 matches); Dodig's: 3.9% (617 in 225 matches).
- H2H: Budkov Kjaer 2 double faults, Dodig 3 in 2 sets.
- Grass can lead to more double faults due to aggressive second serves.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
On grass, both players' ace rates and the H2H ace count suggest a combined total over 8.5 aces is likely in a best-of-3 match.
- Budkov Kjaer's ace rate: 5.5% (career 570 aces in 159 matches); Dodig's: 5.3% (844 aces in 225 matches).
- H2H: Dodig hit 6 aces, Budkov Kjaer 2 in a 2-set match.
- Grass typically yields higher ace counts; both players are tall (191cm and 188cm) with strong serves.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 8.5Estimated chance50%

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L7-6(4) 7-5Nicolai Budkov Kjaer#121vMatej Dodig#209Feb 27, 2026

1 total meetings

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

8W 7L

6-4 6-7(6) 6-1#236Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

3-6 6-3 6-2#144Mackenzie Mcdonald

6-0 7-6(4)#141August Holmgren

6-3 7-6(3)#144Mackenzie Mcdonald

7-6(2) 6-2#217Tom Gentzsch

2-6 6-4 6-2#208Gilles Arnaud Bailly

6-4 6-4#51Miomir Kecmanovic

6-7(8) 6-1 6-4#526Jakub Paul

6-3 6-2—Sergi Fita Juan

6-4 6-2#113Dalibor Svrcina

6-7(5) 7-6(3) 6-3#137Otto Virtanen

6-3 6-2#9Daniil Medvedev

6-2 6-1#41Denis Shapovalov

5-3 ret.#109Reilly Opelka

6-1 6-0#155Moez Echargui

Matej Dodig

8W 7L

3-6 7-6(0) 7-6#230Frederico Ferreira Silva

6-4 6-4#367Carlos Sanchez Jover

6-3 6-7(4) 6-0#242Guy Den Ouden

6-4 2-6 6-4#174Joel Schwaerzler

6-1 6-4#165Hugo Dellien

1-6 6-3 7-5#239Yi Zhou

7-6(8) 3-6 6-3#141August Holmgren

4-1 ret.#345Mili Poljicak

6-4 3-6 6-2#326Sandro Kopp

3-6 7-5 6-2#474Christian Langmo

7-6(3) 6-3#130Stefano Travaglia

6-3 6-3#283Duje Ajdukovic

3-6 6-4 7-6(4)#280Martin Krumich

2-6 6-2 7-6(0)#478Laurent Lokoli

7-6(4) 6-4#174Joel Schwaerzler