FranceCassis - FranceFinished

Predictions graded

Moez Echargui #194Tunisia2Billy Harris #167United Kingdom1

Sets 7-5 · 1-6 · 7-6Thu 10 Sept 2026, 10:00 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions3–350%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageBilly Harris · 27 places

Moez Echargui

Tunisia

Age 33 with a career-high ranking of No. 134 on 29 December 2025. ITF lists sand/clay as his preferred surface, while ATP describes him as a counterpuncher.

Current ranking: #194
Peak ranking: #134 · 2025
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Billy Harris

United Kingdom

British right-hander born 22 January 1995. His documented career-high singles ranking is No. 101 in September 2024; no reliable current source established a preferred surface or an active fitness issue.

Current ranking: #167
Peak ranking: #101 · 2024
Current age: 31
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 8 Sep 2026, 16:07 · Europe/Bucharest

Billy Harris holds a moderate edge over Moez Echargui as the defending champion with better recent form and ranking.

The match is likely to be competitive, with both players averaging over 24 total games, making over 21.5 games a solid angle. Harris at 1.80 offers slight value, while the over on total games is a medium-confidence bet.

Context

Echargui, 226th, is a right-hander with a two-handed backhand and has spent most of his career on hard courts.
His recent hard-court sample shows a 5-8 record and only 49.3% of total points won, suggesting he is not currently imposing his game on this surface. Harris, by contrast, has a similar 4-5 hard-court record but a slightly better points share, so the surface edge is marginal.
- Echargui's last 13 hard-court matches: 5 wins, 8 losses (38.5% win rate).
- He won 49.3% of total points on hard courts in that span.
- Harris's last 9 hard-court matches: 4 wins, 5 losses (44.4% win rate), with 49.3% total points won.
Harris, 161st, is a tall right-hander whose serve is a key weapon, especially on faster surfaces.
In their last 15 matches, Harris has a higher ace rate and first-serve points won, which could give him more free points and pressure Echargui's return game. Echargui's return points won is 37%, slightly below Harris's 37.5%, so neither player has a clear edge in returning.
- Harris: 5.3 aces per match, 70.7% first-serve points won in last 15 matches.
- Echargui: 3.7 aces per match, 67.9% first-serve points won in last 15 matches.
- Echargui's return points won: 37%; Harris's: 37.5%.
Billy Harris, 31, is the defending champion at Cassis and won his first Challenger title here in 2025.
He returns to the event with the ranking points from that title to defend, but this is a routine tournament appearance and does not signal a change in form or fitness.
- Harris defeated Daniil Glinka in the 2025 Cassis final to win his first Challenger title.
- Stored recent sample: 3 wins from 5 tracked matches.
ConfirmedSources checked 8 Sep 2026, 16:06 · Europe/BucharestATP Tourwww.atptour.com · 7 Sep 2025

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Harris has better recent form and ranking, plus tournament familiarity as defending champion, giving him a moderate edge.
- Harris last15 overall record 8-7 (53.3%) vs Echargui 6-9 (40%)
- Harris last15 hard record 4-5 (44.4%) vs Echargui 5-8 (38.5%)
- Harris ranking 161 vs Echargui 226
- Harris defending Cassis title (2025 champion)
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostBilly HarrisEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches average over 24 total games, making over 21.5 likely in a competitive Bo3.
- Echargui last15 average games per match: 24.5 (368/15)
- Harris last15 average games per match: 24.7 (371/15)
- Both players have similar games won percentages around 50%
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first sets for both players average near 10 games, supporting over 9.5.
- Echargui last15 first set average games: 9.5 (142/15)
- Harris last15 first set average games: 9.7 (145/15)
- Both players have close first sets in recent matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance58%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Harris's stronger serve and better recent first-set performance support a slight edge in set 1.
- Harris first set win rate in last15: 8/15 (53.3%)
- Echargui first set win rate in last15: 6/15 (40%)
- Harris first serve points won 70.7% vs Echargui 67.9%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostBilly HarrisEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined ace rates suggest over 8.5 total aces is slightly more likely than under.
- Harris last15 aces per match: 5.3
- Echargui last15 aces per match: 3.7
- Combined average aces per match: 9.0
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined double fault rates are right at the 6.5 line, making over a coin-flip.
- Harris last15 double faults per match: 3.2
- Echargui last15 double faults per match: 3.4
- Combined average double faults per match: 6.6
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance50%

Prediction history

Billy Harris has been moderately reliable when projected to win

Billy Harris has fulfilled 5 of 9 recent win projections, a 56% success rate. His average estimated probability was 59.7%, with an expected 5.4 fulfilled predictions, so actual results are slightly below expectation. All four missed projections resulted in losses, with no draws or wins by Harris.

Recent evidence for Billy Harris9 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

25 Jul·ATP Washington

#261Abedallah Shelbayh2-0#155Billy Harris

BetBugsBilly Harris to win·58%

Missed

25 Jul 2026

ATP Washington

#261Abedallah Shelbayh2-0#155Billy Harris

Billy Harris to win

58%probability

Abedallah Shelbayh won

Missed

25 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#239Yi Zhou1-3#140Billy Harris

BetBugsBilly Harris to win·62%

Matched

25 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#239Yi Zhou1-3#140Billy Harris

Billy Harris to win

62%probability

Billy Harris won

Matched

24 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#172Zsombor Piros0-2#140Billy Harris

BetBugsBilly Harris to win·60%

Matched

24 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#172Zsombor Piros0-2#140Billy Harris

Billy Harris to win

60%probability

Billy Harris won

Matched

22 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#245Stefano Napolitano0-2#142Billy Harris

BetBugsBilly Harris to win·62%

Matched

22 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#245Stefano Napolitano0-2#142Billy Harris

Billy Harris to win

62%probability

Billy Harris won

Matched

17 Jun·Nottingham - Great Britain

#142Billy Harris2-1#135Arthur Gea

BetBugsBilly Harris to win·62%

Matched

17 Jun 2026

Nottingham - Great Britain

#142Billy Harris2-1#135Arthur Gea

Billy Harris to win

62%probability

Billy Harris won

Matched

Previous match context available

Moez Echargui

6W 9L

6-4 6-2#343Lucas Poullain 2-6 6-4 6-4#165Jack Pinnington Jones

6-4 6-4#140Hugo Dellien

6-3 6-4#47Hubert Hurkacz

6-4 2-6 7-6(5)#200Moise Kouame

6-2 5-0 ret.#77Camilo Ugo Carabelli

7-6(5) 7-6(5)#109Otto Virtanen

5-7 6-2 6-4#107Michael Zheng

6-4 6-3#451Spencer Johnson

6-2 7-5#314Andres Martin

7-5 6-1—Jordan Lee

6-4 6-4#139Lloyd Harris

4-6 7-6(2) 7-6(4)#368Dhakshineswar Suresh

6-1 5-7 6-2 6-4#91Hugo Gaston

6-4 3-6 7-6(6)#193Keegan Smith

Billy Harris

8W 7L

7-5 6-3#243Hugo Grenier 3-6 7-6(5) 7-5#252Felix Balshaw

7-5 6-4#312Jay Dylan Hara Friend

6-2 7-6(3)#243Hugo Grenier

4-6 6-1 6-4#110Toby Samuel

6-1 6-3#172Gonzalo Bueno

6-2 6-1#108Kyrian Jacquet

6-4 7-6(2)#251Abedallah Shelbayh

6-2 6-4#368Dhakshineswar Suresh

6-3 5-7 6-3 6-3#50Karen Khachanov

1-6 7-6(2) 6-2 6-3#248Yi Zhou

6-4 6-4#118Zsombor Piros

6-2 6-2#229Stefano Napolitano

7-6(3) 7-6(3)#109Otto Virtanen

7-6(3) 6-7(3) 6-4#87Arthur Gea

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MEMoez EcharguiEchargui

Last 15

1–5

9 core stats · 3 even

Billy HarrisHarrisBH

Billy Harris carries the stronger recent form — Moez Echargui's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 0–3 · 2 even

1st Serve In57.8%+2.6pp60.4%

1st Serve Won67.9%+2.8pp70.7%

2nd Serve Won51.0%—50.7%

Aces / Match3.7+1.65.3

Double Faults / Match3.4—3.2

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won37.0%—37.5%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted41.7%+4.1pp37.6%

Break Pts Saved59.1%+6.3pp65.4%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won48.8%+1.2pp50.0%

Serve · 0–3 · 2 even

57.8%1st Serve In+2.6pp60.4%

67.9%1st Serve Won+2.8pp70.7%

51.0%2nd Serve Won—50.7%

3.7Aces / Match+1.65.3

3.4Double Faults / Match—3.2

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

37.0%Return Pts Won—37.5%

Pressure · 1–1

41.7%Break Pts Converted+4.1pp37.6%

59.1%Break Pts Saved+6.3pp65.4%

Points · 0–1

48.8%Total Pts Won+1.2pp50.0%