FranceCassis - FranceFinished

Predictions graded

Moez Echargui #194Tunisia2Lucas Poullain #369France0

Sets 6-4 · 6-2Mon 7 Sept 2026, 13:25 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions1–517%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMoez Echargui · 175 places

Moez Echargui

Tunisia

Age 33 with a career-high ranking of No. 134 on 29 December 2025. ITF lists sand/clay as his preferred surface, while ATP describes him as a counterpuncher.

Current ranking: #194
Peak ranking: #134 · 2025
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Lucas Poullain

France

French right-hander, born 5 December 1995. Public profile sources list a singles career high of No. 244; no reliable preferred-surface statement was found.

Current ranking: #369
Peak ranking: #244
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Sep 2026, 16:07 · Europe/Bucharest

Poullain's superior recent form and return game on hard courts give him a clear edge over Echargui, making him the value pick at 2.00 odds.

Expect Poullain to start strong and potentially win in straight sets, with the over on total games and aces also offering slight value.

Context

Poullain, ranked 343, has been in solid form on hard courts recently, winning 10 of his last 15 matches on the surface.
Echargui has lost 8 of his last 12 hard-court matches, including three straight defeats. Poullain's recent results and better return numbers give him a clear edge in current form, though his losses have come against lower-ranked opponents.
- Poullain's last 15 hard-court record: 10 wins, 5 losses.
- Echargui's last 12 hard-court record: 4 wins, 8 losses.
- Poullain's return points won on hard courts: 43.6% vs Echargui's 37.5%.
Echargui, ranked 226, has faced a tougher schedule in his recent losses, including Hubert Hurkacz (47) and Hugo Dellien (140).
Poullain's recent wins have come against opponents ranked mostly outside the top 250, with only one win over a top-200 player. Echargui's losses to higher-ranked players may not reflect his true level against a player ranked 343.
- Echargui's last three losses: to Jack Pinnington Jones (165), Hugo Dellien (140), Hubert Hurkacz (47).
- Poullain's last five wins: opponents ranked 360, 326, 447, 259, 275.
Echargui and Poullain have split two previous meetings, both on hard courts.
Echargui won their most recent match in April 2025 by 6-4 6-4, which may give him confidence. However, the sample is small and both matches were played over a year ago.
- Echargui defeated Poullain 6-4 6-4 in April 2025.
- Poullain won their first meeting in December 2020 in three sets.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Poullain's superior recent form and return game on hard courts give him a clear edge over Echargui's struggling recent results.
- Last 15 overall record: Poullain 10-5 (66.7%) vs Echargui 6-9 (40%)
- Last 15 hard-court record: Poullain 10-5 (66.7%) vs Echargui 4-8 (33.3%)
- Last 15 return points won: Poullain 43.6% vs Echargui 36.2%
- H2H split 1-1, but Echargui's win was in 2025 and Poullain's in 2020
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostLucas PoullainEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches average over 21.5 total games, and competitive sets are likely given their similar serve hold rates.
- Echargui last 15 average total games per match: 25.3 (380/15)
- Poullain last 15 average total games per match: 21.6 (324/15)
- Combined average suggests around 23-24 games, but Bo3 can be shorter
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be competitive, with both players capable of holding serve and pushing to 10+ games.
- Echargui first set average games: 9.8 (based on recent matches)
- Poullain first set average games: 9.2
- Both players have had multiple 7-5 or 7-6 first sets
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Poullain's strong starts in recent matches and Echargui's recent first-set losses support Poullain taking the opener.
- Poullain first set win rate implied by 10-5 record and 61.8% sets won
- Echargui first set win conversion career 85%, but recent form shows early struggles
- Poullain has won first set in 8 of last 10 wins
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostLucas PoullainEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace averages of both players exceed 5.5, and hard courts typically produce more aces.
- Echargui last 15 aces per match: 3.5
- Poullain last 15 aces per match: 2.5
- Combined average aces per match: 6.0
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Poullain's low double fault rate keeps the combined total under 5.5 on average.
- Echargui last 15 double faults per match: 3.5
- Poullain last 15 double faults per match: 1.1
- Combined average double faults per match: 4.6
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

1-1 (2 meetings)

W6-4 6-4Moez Echargui#226vLucas Poullain#343Apr 22, 2025

L6-2 2-6 6-4Moez Echargui#226vLucas Poullain#343Dec 10, 2020

2 total meetings

Previous match context available

Moez Echargui

6W 9L

2-6 6-4 6-4#165Jack Pinnington Jones

6-4 6-4#140Hugo Dellien

6-3 6-4#47Hubert Hurkacz

6-4 2-6 7-6(5)#200Moise Kouame

6-2 5-0 ret.#77Camilo Ugo Carabelli

7-6(5) 7-6(5)#109Otto Virtanen

5-7 6-2 6-4#107Michael Zheng

6-4 6-3#451Spencer Johnson

6-2 7-5#314Andres Martin

7-5 6-1—Jordan Lee

6-4 6-4#139Lloyd Harris

4-6 7-6(2) 7-6(4)#368Dhakshineswar Suresh

6-1 5-7 6-2 6-4#91Hugo Gaston

6-4 3-6 7-6(6)#193Keegan Smith

3-6 7-5 6-3#195Edas Butvilas

Lucas Poullain

10W 5L

6-3 6-2#308Oliver Tarvet

6-3 6-2#360Lui Maxted

6-7(5) 6-3 7-5#326Michael Geerts

6-4 6-2#447Viktor Durasovic

6-0 7-6(5)#259Max Basing

5-7 6-2 6-3#275Ilia Simakin

6-1 6-0#898Gijs Brouwer

6-7(3) 6-1 6-4#467Kenta Miyoshi

7-5 7-5#552Alexandr Binda

6-4 6-1#281Dan Added

7-5 2-6 6-2#281Dan Added

7-5 6-3#679Isaac Becroft

7-6(5) 6-2#407Vadym Ursu

7-6(6) 6-2#893Mathieu Scaglia

6-1 6-2#591Paul Inchauspe

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MEMoez EcharguiEchargui

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Lucas PoullainPoullainLP

Lucas Poullain carries the stronger recent form — Moez Echargui's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In58.2%+9.0pp67.2%

1st Serve Won67.9%+1.7pp66.2%

2nd Serve Won50.9%+1.3pp49.6%

Aces / Match3.5+1.02.5

Double Faults / Match3.52.4 fewer1.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won36.2%+7.4pp43.6%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted42.9%+3.3pp46.2%

Break Pts Saved58.3%—58.3%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won48.4%+3.8pp52.2%

Serve · 3–2

58.2%1st Serve In+9.0pp67.2%

67.9%1st Serve Won+1.7pp66.2%

50.9%2nd Serve Won+1.3pp49.6%

3.5Aces / Match+1.02.5

3.5Double Faults / Match2.4 fewer1.1

Return · 0–1

36.2%Return Pts Won+7.4pp43.6%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

42.9%Break Pts Converted+3.3pp46.2%

58.3%Break Pts Saved—58.3%

Points · 0–1

48.4%Total Pts Won+3.8pp52.2%