ItalyGenoa - ItalyRET

Predictions graded

Hugo Dellien #141Bolivia0Matej Dodig #257Croatia1

Sets 3-5Thu 10 Sept 2026, 11:40 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions0–30%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageHugo Dellien · 116 places

Hugo Dellien

Bolivia

Dellien reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 64 in August 2022. ITF lists clay as his preferred surface; public sources place him at No. 141 entering this event.

Current ranking: #141
Peak ranking: #64 · 2022
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Matej Dodig

Croatia

Most of his recorded singles wins have come on clay. He reached career-high No. 199 in March 2026 and qualified for the Hagen main draw with two straight-set wins.

Current ranking: #257
Peak ranking: #199 · 2026
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Sep 2026, 03:29 · Europe/Bucharest

Dellien leads H2H 2-0 on clay, but Dodig's recent form (12-3) makes this a tight match.

Dellien's return game gives him a slight edge, but Dodig's serve could keep it close. Best betting angle is Over 21.5 total games.

Context

Dellien, 32, is a clay-court specialist with a career 63% win rate and 573 clay wins. Dodig, 21, is a rising Croatian with a 62.6% career win rate and 115 clay wins.
In their two 2026 clay meetings, Dellien won 44% of return points to Dodig's 31% and 57% of second-serve points to Dodig's 39%. Those margins suggest Dellien can pressure Dodig's serve and hold his own more comfortably. Dodig's higher ace count (7 vs 10) is offset by his lower first-serve percentage (55% vs 71%).
- Dellien won 5-7 6-4 6-2 on 2026-07-12 and 6-1 6-4 on 2026-05-20, both on clay.
- In those matches, Dellien won 44% of return points vs Dodig's 31%, and 57% of second-serve points vs Dodig's 39%.
- Dellien's first-serve percentage was 71% vs Dodig's 55%.
Dodig, 21, is ranked 254 and has won 23 clay matches in 2026 against 10 losses. He has a 57% tiebreak win rate and 59% deciding-set win rate in his career.
Dodig's current run includes wins over Varillas, Nikles, and Schoenhaus, and his last-15 clay stats show 6.3 aces per match and 76.8% first-serve points won. That serving strength could keep him competitive against Dellien, but his return points won (38.2%) is below Dellien's clay return rate (44.2%).
- Dodig has won his last six clay matches, including a 6-3 4-0 ret. win over Agamenone on 2026-09-08.
- His last-15 clay record is 12-3 with 6.3 aces per match and 76.8% first-serve points won.
- Dellien's last-15 clay return points won is 44.2%, higher than Dodig's 38.2%.
Dellien, 32, is ranked 140 and has a career 63% win rate with 573 clay wins. He is a clay-court specialist with a 52% tiebreak win rate.
Dellien's last-15 clay record is 7-4, but he retired against Prado Angelo on 2026-07-29 and lost to Fuele (ranked 554) on 2026-07-17. His clay return points won (44.2%) is strong, but his break point conversion (46.3%) is only average. Dodig's current winning streak may test Dellien's consistency.
- Dellien's last-15 clay record is 7-4 with 44.2% return points won.
- He retired against Prado Angelo on 2026-07-29 and lost to Fuele (ranked 554) on 2026-07-17.
- Dellien's break point conversion on clay is 46.3%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Hugo Dellien

1.60fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

Dellien's head-to-head dominance and superior return game on clay give him the edge despite Dodig's recent form.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Dellien's head-to-head dominance and superior return game on clay give him the edge despite Dodig's recent form.
- H2H: Dellien leads 2-0, both on clay, most recent 2026-07-12
- Dellien last15 clay record 7-4, games won 58.5%
- Dodig last15 clay record 12-3, but lower return points won 38.2%
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostHugo DellienEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Competitive clay match with both players holding serve well suggests a longer total games count.
- Dellien last15 average 94.9 minutes per match
- Dodig last15 average 87 minutes per match
- Both players have high games won percentages on clay
BetBugs · Total Gamesnot gradableOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Strong serving from both players in the first set could lead to a tight set with more games.
- Dellien first serve points won 67.6% on clay
- Dodig first serve points won 76.8% on clay
- Both players have strong first serve stats
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Dellien's strong first-set record and H2H pattern support a slight edge in the opening set.
- Dellien first set win conversion 88% career
- Dodig first set win conversion 85% career
- H2H Dellien won first set in both meetings
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostHugo DellienEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have disciplined serves, making a low double fault total likely.
- Dellien last15 double faults per match 2.0
- Dodig last15 double faults per match 1.2
- Both players have low double fault rates
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 3.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Dodig's high ace rate combined with Dellien's occasional aces should push total aces over the line.
- Dellien last15 aces per match 1.9
- Dodig last15 aces per match 6.3
- Dodig's serve is a major weapon on clay
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance50%

Head-to-Head

2-0 (2 meetings)

W5-7 6-4 6-2Hugo Dellien#140vMatej Dodig#254Jul 12, 2026

W6-1 6-4Hugo Dellien#140vMatej Dodig#254May 20, 2026

2 total meetings

Previous match context available

Hugo Dellien

8W 7L

6-3 6-2#465Felipe Meligeni Alves 7-6 6-4#306Facundo Mena 6-4 6-1#538Pedro Vives Marcos 6-2 6-4#316Miguel Damas 6-4 6-0#244Gilles Arnaud Bailly 6-3 6-3#239Frederico Ferreira Silva

6-3 5-7 7-5#181Federico Cina

6-4 6-4#226Moez Echargui

6-3 6-1#88Sho Shimabukuro

7-5 6-2#97Benjamin Bonzi

7-6(4) ret.#155Juan Carlos Prado Angelo

6-1 6-4#148Pedro Martinez Portero

7-5 6-2#206Laslo Djere

4-6 6-1 6-3#264Michele Ribecai

2-6 6-3 6-4#554Matyas Fuele

Matej Dodig

12W 3L

6-3 4-0 ret.#291Franco Agamenone

6-3 7-6(5)#234Juan Pablo Varillas

6-3 6-0#424Johan Nikles 2-6 7-6(1) 6-3#318Max Schoenhaus 6-7(1) 7-6(3) 7-5#428Henry Bernet 6-2 6-3#266Mili Poljicak

6-2 6-4#278Marvin Moeller

2-2 ret.#578Saba Purtseladze

6-4 6-3#458Rudolf Molleker

6-3 6-1#444Denis Yevseyev

4-6 7-5 7-6(4)#201Lorenzo Giustino

7-5 6-3#147Stefano Travaglia

6-4 7-5#448Oleksii Krutykh

7-6(7) 6-2#838Jannik Opitz

6-4 6-2#66Pablo Carreno-Busta

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

HDHugo DellienDellien

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Matej DodigDodigMD

Matej Dodig carries the stronger recent form — Hugo Dellien's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1568.8%+3.7pp65.1%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1566.3%+10.5pp76.8%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1549.6%+8.2pp57.8%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/151.9+4.46.3

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/152.21.0 fewer1.2

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1541.8%+3.6pp38.2%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1546.5%—45.9%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1557.3%+3.6pp53.7%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1551.3%+2.2pp53.5%

Serve · 1–4

68.8%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+3.7pp65.1%

66.3%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+10.5pp76.8%

49.6%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+8.2pp57.8%

1.9Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+4.46.3

2.2Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/151.0 fewer1.2

Return · 1–0

41.8%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+3.6pp38.2%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

46.5%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15—45.9%

57.3%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+3.6pp53.7%

Points · 0–1

51.3%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+2.2pp53.5%