ItalyComo - ItalyFinished

Predictions graded

Max Schoenhaus #312Germany1Matej Dodig #257Croatia2

Sets 6-2 · 6-7 · 3-6Fri 4 Sept 2026, 15:55 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalClay

Predictions6–275%

Edges1–150%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMatej Dodig · 55 places

Max Schoenhaus

Germany

A 19-year-old German right-hander with a one-handed backhand. His current No. 312 ranking is close to his published career high of No. 310; no reliable explicit preferred-surface statement was found.

Current ranking: #312
Peak ranking: #310
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Matej Dodig

Croatia

Most of his recorded singles wins have come on clay. He reached career-high No. 199 in March 2026 and qualified for the Hagen main draw with two straight-set wins.

Current ranking: #257
Peak ranking: #199 · 2026
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 3 Sep 2026, 03:23 · Europe/Bucharest

Matej Dodig is favored over Max Schoenhaus due to superior recent form, clay-court record, and first-serve efficiency.

The best betting angle is Dodig on the moneyline at 1.73, offering a 4.2-point edge. Expect a competitive match with over 21.5 total games and over 10.5 total aces.

Context

Dodig, 21, is a Croatian right-hander ranked 254 and has built his career on clay, with 111 career wins on the surface. Schoenhaus, 22, is ranked 318 and has a more modest clay record.
Dodig's recent clay results are clearly stronger: he has won 73.3% of his last 15 matches on the surface, compared to 50% for Schoenhaus over 14 matches. Dodig also wins more first-serve points (75.7% vs 69.8%) and converts break points at a higher rate (41.7% vs 34.7%). However, Schoenhaus has been competitive in many losses, and his last two wins came against higher-ranked opponents, so the gap is not absolute.
- Dodig's last 15 clay matches: 11 wins, 4 losses (73.3% win rate).
- Schoenhaus's last 14 clay matches: 7 wins, 7 losses (50% win rate).
- Dodig wins 75.7% of first-serve points on clay in this sample; Schoenhaus wins 69.8%.
- Dodig converts 41.7% of break points; Schoenhaus converts 34.7%.
Matej Dodig needed three sets and two tiebreaks to beat Henry Bernet on 2 September, while Max Schoenhaus won in straight sets the same day.
Dodig's longer on-court time before the two-day turnaround could leave him slightly less fresh for this quarterfinal. However, the extra day of rest may be enough to recover, and Dodig's stronger recent clay form still gives him an edge.
- Dodig's 2 September Como match included two tiebreak sets before the deciding set.
ConfirmedSources checked 3 Sep 2026, 03:21 · Europe/BucharestGonzalo Bueno vs Max Schoenhauswww.livescore.com · 2 Sep 2026Matej Dodig vs Henry Bernetwww.atptour.com · 2 Sep 2026
Schoenhaus is a German right-hander with a one-handed backhand, ranked 318. He has been active on the clay Challenger circuit this summer.
Schoenhaus needed three sets to beat Alvaro Guillen Meza in the previous round, while Dodig's last match was a straight-sets win over Mili Poljicak. Schoenhaus has spent more time on court in the last two days, which could affect his stamina in a best-of-three match. However, both players are young and have had a day of rest before this quarter-final.
- Schoenhaus's last match: 6-2 6-7(5) 6-1 win over Guillen Meza (3 sets).
- Dodig's last match: 6-2 6-3 win over Poljicak (2 sets).
- Both matches were played on August 31, two days before this quarter-final.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Dodig's stronger recent form and serve efficiency on clay give him a clear edge.
- Dodig last15 overall record 11-4 (73.3%) vs Schoenhaus 7-8 (46.7%)
- Dodig clay last15 record 11-4, Schoenhaus clay last15 7-7
- Dodig first serve points won 75.7% vs Schoenhaus 69.5%
- Dodig ranking 254 vs Schoenhaus 318
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMatej DodigEstimated chance62%

Games3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Competitive clay match with both players holding serve reasonably well points to a longer total.
- Dodig last15 average duration 100.5 minutes, Schoenhaus 86.9 minutes
- Dodig last15 games won 54.3%, Schoenhaus 50%
- Both players have similar return points won (~38%)
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Strong serving from both players in the first set makes a tight opener likely.
- Dodig last15 first serve points won 75.7%
- Schoenhaus last15 first serve points won 69.5%
- Both players have break point save rates around 57-58%
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Even second-serve and return numbers suggest the second set could also be close.
- Dodig last15 second serve points won 52.4%
- Schoenhaus last15 second serve points won 52.3%
- Both players have similar return points won (~38%)
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Dodig's edge in games won percentage suggests he can cover a small handicap.
- Dodig last15 games won 54.3%
- Schoenhaus last15 games won 50%
- Dodig has a stronger recent record on clay
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonMatej Dodig -2.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Dodig's superior first-serve performance and first-set conversion rate support taking the opener.
- Dodig first set win conversion career 85% vs Schoenhaus 77%
- Dodig last15 first serve points won 75.7%
- Schoenhaus last15 first serve points won 69.5%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostMatej DodigEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players serve aces at a solid rate, making over 10.5 total aces likely.
- Dodig last15 aces per match 7.3
- Schoenhaus last15 aces per match 5.0
- Combined average aces per match 12.3
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 10.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have relatively low double fault rates, supporting under 5.5 total.
- Dodig last15 double faults per match 1.9
- Schoenhaus last15 double faults per match 2.5
- Combined average double faults per match 4.4
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance58%

Prediction history

Matej Dodig has been moderately reliable when projected to win

Matej Dodig has fulfilled 3 of 5 recent win projections. His average estimated probability was 58.2%, with an expected 2.9 fulfilled predictions, so he slightly outperformed expectation. Both missed projections ended in losses, and the current 62% probability is within his historical range.

Recent evidence for Matej Dodig5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

11 Jul·Trieste - Italy

#208Matej Dodig2-1#235Henri Squire

BetBugsMatej Dodig to win·58%

Matched

11 Jul 2026

Trieste - Italy

#208Matej Dodig2-1#235Henri Squire

Matej Dodig to win

58%probability

Matej Dodig won

Matched

10 Jul·Trieste - Italy

#248Raul Brancaccio0-2#208Matej Dodig

BetBugsMatej Dodig to win·55%

Matched

10 Jul 2026

Trieste - Italy

#248Raul Brancaccio0-2#208Matej Dodig

Matej Dodig to win

55%probability

Matej Dodig won

Matched

8 Jul·Trieste - Italy

#265Michele Ribecai1-2#208Matej Dodig

BetBugsMatej Dodig to win·58%

Matched

8 Jul 2026

Trieste - Italy

#265Michele Ribecai1-2#208Matej Dodig

Matej Dodig to win

58%probability

Matej Dodig won

Matched

9 Jun·Cattolica - Italy

#389Carlos Sanchez Jover2-0#199Matej Dodig

BetBugsMatej Dodig to win·62%

Missed

9 Jun 2026

Cattolica - Italy

#389Carlos Sanchez Jover2-0#199Matej Dodig

Matej Dodig to win

62%probability

Carlos Sanchez Jover won

Missed

13 May·Zagreb - Croatia

#201Matej Dodig1-2#167August Holmgren

BetBugsMatej Dodig to win·58%

Missed

13 May 2026

Zagreb - Croatia

#201Matej Dodig1-2#167August Holmgren

Matej Dodig to win

58%probability

August Holmgren won

Missed

Previous match context available

Max Schoenhaus

7W 8L

6-1 6-3#172Gonzalo Bueno 6-2 6-7(5) 6-1#285Alvaro Guillen Meza

6-7(0) 6-4 6-4#378Daniel Masur

6-4 6-3#266Mili Poljicak

6-1 6-3#260Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

1-6 6-0 ret.#118Zsombor Piros

5-7 6-3 7-6(3)#341Marko Topo

6-4 6-2#169Federico Agustin Gomez

6-4 6-1#240Max Houkes

7-5 6-1#749Andres Santamarta Roig

7-5 6-4#206Laslo Djere

6-3 6-3#59Roman Andres Burruchaga

6-2 6-4#15Learner Tien

6-7(3) 6-3 6-4#238Alejandro Moro Canas

6-3 7-5#140Hugo Dellien

Matej Dodig

11W 4L

6-7(1) 7-6(3) 7-5#428Henry Bernet 6-2 6-3#266Mili Poljicak

6-2 6-4#278Marvin Moeller

2-2 ret.#578Saba Purtseladze

6-4 6-3#458Rudolf Molleker

6-3 6-1#444Denis Yevseyev

4-6 7-5 7-6(4)#201Lorenzo Giustino

7-5 6-3#147Stefano Travaglia

6-4 7-5#448Oleksii Krutykh

7-6(7) 6-2#838Jannik Opitz

6-4 6-2#66Pablo Carreno-Busta

5-7 6-4 6-2#140Hugo Dellien

6-4 3-6 6-3#215Henri Squire

7-6(5) 6-1#224Raul Brancaccio

4-6 7-5 6-4#264Michele Ribecai

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MSMax SchoenhausSchoenhaus

Last 15

0–7

9 core stats · 2 even

Matej DodigDodigMD

Matej Dodig carries the stronger recent form — Max Schoenhaus's route runs through 2nd serve won.

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

1st Serve In58.0%+4.2pp62.2%

1st Serve Won69.5%+6.2pp75.7%

2nd Serve Won52.3%—52.4%

Aces / Match5.0+2.37.3

Double Faults / Match2.50.6 fewer1.9

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won37.9%—38.2%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted34.0%+7.7pp41.7%

Break Pts Saved57.6%+0.9pp58.5%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.6%+2.5pp52.1%

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

58.0%1st Serve In+4.2pp62.2%

69.5%1st Serve Won+6.2pp75.7%

52.3%2nd Serve Won—52.4%

5.0Aces / Match+2.37.3

2.5Double Faults / Match0.6 fewer1.9

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

37.9%Return Pts Won—38.2%

Pressure · 0–2

34.0%Break Pts Converted+7.7pp41.7%

57.6%Break Pts Saved+0.9pp58.5%

Points · 0–1

49.6%Total Pts Won+2.5pp52.1%