ItalyGenoa - ItalyFinished

Predictions graded

Hugo Dellien #141Bolivia2Felipe Meligeni Alves #567Brazil0

Sets 6-3 · 6-2Tue 8 Sept 2026, 15:00 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions8–0100%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageHugo Dellien · 426 places

Hugo Dellien

Bolivia

Dellien reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 64 in August 2022. ITF lists clay as his preferred surface; public sources place him at No. 141 entering this event.

Current ranking: #141
Peak ranking: #64 · 2022
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Felipe Meligeni Alves

Brazil

Brazilian right-hander; career-high ATP singles ranking No. 117 came in April 2025. His recorded career match volume is heavily concentrated on clay.

Current ranking: #567
Peak ranking: #117 · 2025
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Sep 2026, 16:01 · Europe/Bucharest

Hugo Dellien is a strong favorite over Felipe Meligeni Alves, backed by a 5-0 H2H record and superior clay-court form against better opposition.

The best betting angle is Dellien on the moneyline at 1.40, with additional value in under 21.5 total games and Dellien -3.5 game handicap.

Context

Dellien, 33, is a clay-court specialist ranked 140 with a career 63% win rate on the surface. Meligeni Alves, 28, is ranked 465 and has spent most of his career on clay.
Dellien's recent clay numbers are solid: 72.7% win rate, 61.2% games won, and 44.6% return points won over 11 matches. Meligeni Alves has a perfect 10-0 clay record in his last 10, but his opponents averaged outside the top 400, so that streak is less meaningful. On clay, Dellien's level is more proven against better competition.
- Dellien last 15 on clay: 8-3 record, 61.2% games won, 44.6% return points won.
- Meligeni Alves last 10 on clay: 10-0 record, but opponents ranked 261-900.
- Dellien's career clay record is 572-190 (75.1%), while Meligeni Alves is 310-160 (66.0%).
Dellien has faced Meligeni Alves five times, all on clay, and has never lost.
The most recent meetings in 2024 were one-sided: 6-1 6-1 and 6-3 6-4. Dellien's return numbers in those matches were far superior, winning 48% of return points compared to Meligeni Alves's 35%. This pattern suggests Dellien matches up well against Meligeni Alves's game.
- H2H: Dellien leads 5-0, all on clay.
- 2024 meetings: 6-1 6-1 and 6-3 6-4.
- Dellien won 48% of return points in H2H vs Meligeni Alves's 35%.
Meligeni Alves has been extremely active on the South American clay circuit, winning two titles in July and August.
His last 15 matches average 122 minutes, and he has played five three-setters in that span. Dellien's recent matches average 96 minutes with only two three-setters. Fatigue could be a factor if this match goes long, especially given Meligeni Alves's lower ranking and need to grind.
- Meligeni Alves last 15 matches: average duration 122.1 minutes.
- Dellien last 15 matches: average duration 96.4 minutes.
- Meligeni Alves played 5 three-setters in last 15; Dellien played 2.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Dellien's dominant H2H and superior clay-court pedigree against stronger recent opposition make him the clear favorite.
- H2H: Dellien leads 5-0, all on clay, including 6-1 6-1 and 6-3 6-4 wins in 2024.
- Dellien last 15 on clay: 8-3 record, 70.8% sets won, 61.2% games won.
- Meligeni Alves last 15 on clay: 10-0 record, but against much lower-ranked opponents (avg rank ~500).
- Dellien career clay win% 63%, Meligeni Alves 59.5%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonHugo DellienEstimated chance78%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Dellien's recent clay dominance and H2H blowouts point to a relatively short match.
- Dellien's last 5 clay wins: 12-5, 12-6, 12-4, 12-6, 12-5 games.
- Meligeni Alves' clay wins often against weak opponents, but Dellien's H2H wins were 6-1 6-1 and 6-3 6-4.
- Dellien's clay matches average 95.9 minutes, suggesting efficient wins.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Dellien's consistent game dominance on clay supports a handicap cover.
- Dellien's average games won margin in last 5 clay wins: +6.6 games.
- H2H margins: 12-2, 12-7, 13-11, 12-5, 13-7 (Dellien won by 5+ games in 4 of 5).
- Meligeni Alves' clay wins were against much weaker opponents.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonHugo Dellien -3.5Estimated chance60%

Sets4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Dellien's strong first-set record and recent clay form give him an edge in the opening set.
- Dellien first set win conversion 88% career.
- Dellien won first set in 4 of last 5 clay matches.
- Meligeni Alves lost first set in 3 of last 5 matches overall.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonHugo DellienEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Dellien's second-set consistency and H2H record make him likely to win set 2.
- Dellien won second set in 4 of last 5 clay matches.
- Meligeni Alves lost second set in 3 of last 5 matches overall.
- H2H: Dellien won second set in all 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonHugo DellienEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Dellien's straight-set trend on clay and H2H dominance support a 2-0 victory.
- Dellien won 2-0 in 4 of last 5 clay matches.
- H2H: Dellien won 2-0 in 4 of 5 meetings.
- Meligeni Alves has lost in straight sets in 3 of last 5 matches overall.
BetBugs · Set BettingwonHugo Dellien 2-0Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set outcome is likely given Dellien's form and H2H edge.
- Dellien won in straight sets in 4 of last 5 clay matches.
- Meligeni Alves lost in straight sets in 3 of last 5 matches overall.
- H2H: 4 of 5 matches ended in straight sets.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Dellien's clay dominance and H2H history suggest a match without a tiebreak.
- Dellien's recent clay wins have been decisive, with no tiebreaks in last 5 clay matches.
- Meligeni Alves has played tiebreaks in 3 of last 5 matches overall, but those were on hard courts.
- H2H: only 1 of 5 matches had a tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have low double fault rates on clay, suggesting a low total.
- Dellien averages 1.8 double faults per match on clay.
- Meligeni Alves averages 0.9 double faults per match on clay.
- Combined average ~2.7 double faults.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 3.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have moderate ace rates on clay, making under 6.5 slightly more likely.
- Dellien averages 2.5 aces per match on clay (last 15).
- Meligeni Alves averages 3.6 aces per match on clay (last 15).
- Combined average ~6.1 aces, but H2H matches had 9 and 11 total aces.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 6.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

5-0 (5 meetings)

W6-1 6-1Hugo Dellien#140vFelipe Meligeni Alves#465Nov 15, 2024

W6-3 6-4Hugo Dellien#140vFelipe Meligeni Alves#465Oct 3, 2024

W3-6 7-5 7-6(6)Hugo Dellien#140vFelipe Meligeni Alves#465Oct 20, 2021

W6-3 6-2Hugo Dellien#140vFelipe Meligeni Alves#465Aug 13, 2021

W6-0 7-6(6)Hugo Dellien#140vFelipe Meligeni Alves#465Feb 16, 2021

Hugo Dellien dominates (5 meetings)5 total meetings

Previous match context available

Hugo Dellien

9W 6L

6-4 6-1#538Pedro Vives Marcos 6-2 6-4#316Miguel Damas 6-4 6-0#244Gilles Arnaud Bailly 6-3 6-3#239Frederico Ferreira Silva

6-3 5-7 7-5#181Federico Cina

6-4 6-4#226Moez Echargui

6-3 6-1#88Sho Shimabukuro

7-5 6-2#97Benjamin Bonzi

7-6(4) ret.#155Juan Carlos Prado Angelo

6-1 6-4#148Pedro Martinez Portero

7-5 6-2#206Laslo Djere

4-6 6-1 6-3#264Michele Ribecai

2-6 6-3 6-4#554Matyas Fuele

5-7 6-0 6-1#333Enrico Dalla Valle

6-2 6-3#425Ioannis Xilas

Felipe Meligeni Alves

12W 3L

7-5 6-4#395Alejo Sanchez Quilez

6-3 6-4#134Dalibor Svrcina

6-1 6-4#200Moise Kouame

6-7(5) 7-6(2) 6-2#342Dali Blanch

7-6(2) 7-6(1)#203Luka Pavlovic

6-3 7-5#468Paulo Saraiva Dos Santos

3-6 6-2 6-3#642Maximo Zeitune

6-4 5-7 6-4#529Joao Eduardo Schiessl

7-6(10) 6-4#900Enzo Kohlmann De Freitas

6-4 6-4#515Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez

6-4 6-3#468Paulo Saraiva Dos Santos

7-5 6-4#777Lucas Andrade Da Silva

6-3 6-0#261Matias Soto

3-6 7-6(2) 6-3#878Bastian Malla

6-2 6-1#529Joao Eduardo Schiessl

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

HDHugo DellienDellien

Last 15

1–7

9 core stats · 1 even

Felipe Meligeni AlvesAlvesFA

Felipe Meligeni Alves carries the stronger recent form — Hugo Dellien's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In69.6%+1.3pp68.3%

1st Serve Won67.0%+1.1pp68.1%

2nd Serve Won50.2%+3.5pp53.7%

Aces / Match2.5+1.03.5

Double Faults / Match2.11.0 fewer1.1

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won42.3%—42.3%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted50.5%+1.5pp52.0%

Break Pts Saved56.4%+15.5pp71.9%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won52.0%+1.0pp53.0%

Serve · 1–4

69.6%1st Serve In+1.3pp68.3%

67.0%1st Serve Won+1.1pp68.1%

50.2%2nd Serve Won+3.5pp53.7%

2.5Aces / Match+1.03.5

2.1Double Faults / Match1.0 fewer1.1

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

42.3%Return Pts Won—42.3%

Pressure · 0–2

50.5%Break Pts Converted+1.5pp52.0%

56.4%Break Pts Saved+15.5pp71.9%

Points · 0–1

52.0%Total Pts Won+1.0pp53.0%