ItalyComo - ItalyFinished

Predictions graded

Matej Dodig #257Croatia2Mili Poljicak #264Croatia0

Sets 6-2 · 6-3Mon 31 Aug 2026, 12:20 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions3–350%

Edges2–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMatej Dodig · 7 places

Matej Dodig

Croatia

Most of his recorded singles wins have come on clay. He reached career-high No. 199 in March 2026 and qualified for the Hagen main draw with two straight-set wins.

Current ranking: #257
Peak ranking: #199 · 2026
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Mili Poljicak

Croatia

Croatian right-hander, born 13 July 2004, reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 257 on 30 June 2025. ITF lists hard courts as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #264
Peak ranking: #257 · 2025
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 30 Aug 2026, 03:46 · Europe/Bucharest

Dodig has better recent clay form and return numbers, but Poljicak's H2H win and stronger first serve keep this competitive.

Betting value is limited on the match winner, with better angles on over total games and under double faults.

Context

Dodig, 249th, is a clay-court specialist with 109 career wins on the surface and a 71.4% win rate in his last 14 clay matches.
Poljicak has dropped three of his last four matches, including a straight-set loss to Max Schoenhaus on August 24. Dodig's recent clay results include wins over Stefano Travaglia and Rudolf Molleker, suggesting he enters with more reliable form on this surface.
- Dodig's last 15 clay matches: 10-4 record (71.4% win rate).
- Poljicak's last 15 clay matches: 8-7 record (53.3% win rate).
- Poljicak lost his most recent match 6-4 6-3 to Max Schoenhaus on August 24.
Poljicak, 263rd, has a 130-100 career clay record and reached the Como Challenger first round after a mixed recent stretch.
The only previous meeting ended early, so it offers limited tactical insight, but Poljicak was ahead when the match stopped. Dodig's current form is stronger, so the retirement result should not be over-weighted.
- H2H: Poljicak won 4-1 ret. on clay on March 27, 2026.
- Dodig retired from that match, so the result is incomplete.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Matej Dodig

1.55fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 64.5%

0.0ppshort

Dodig's stronger recent clay form and better return numbers give him a clear edge in this Bo3 match.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Matej Dodig

1.60fair 1.75

BetBugs 57% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

Dodig's superior break point conversion and recent momentum should help him take the opening set.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Dodig's stronger recent clay form and better return numbers give him a clear edge in this Bo3 match.
- Last 15 overall record: Dodig 10-5 (66.7%) vs Poljicak 8-7 (53.3%)
- Last 15 clay record: Dodig 10-4 (71.4%) vs Poljicak 8-7 (53.3%)
- Dodig last 5: 4-1 with wins over Travaglia (rank 147) and Molleker; Poljicak last 5: 2-3 with losses to Schoenhaus (317) and Dominko (900)
- Dodig return points won last 15: 38.4% vs Poljicak 35.7%
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMatej DodigEstimated chance58%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be tight given both players' solid serving and return stats.
- Dodig last 15 first set average games: 9.7 (based on 15 matches)
- Poljicak last 15 first set average games: 10.1
- Both players have similar first serve points won percentages (74.5% vs 76.0%)
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Poljicak's matches tend to be longer and more competitive, pushing the total games over the line.
- Dodig last 15 average games per match: 21.5 (172 games / 15 matches)
- Poljicak last 15 average games per match: 24.9 (188 games / 15 matches)
- Poljicak last 15 average duration: 126.8 minutes vs Dodig 97 minutes
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Dodig's superior break point conversion and recent momentum should help him take the opening set.
- Dodig first set win conversion career: 85% vs Poljicak 84%
- Dodig last 15 first serve points won: 74.5% vs Poljicak 76.0%
- Dodig last 15 break points converted: 41.5% vs Poljicak 30.6%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMatej DodigEstimated chance57%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have relatively low double fault rates, suggesting the total will stay under the line.
- Dodig last 15 double faults per match: 1.8
- Poljicak last 15 double faults per match: 2.1
- Combined average double faults per match: 3.9
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 4.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players average over 7 aces per match, making the over on total aces a reasonable play.
- Dodig last 15 aces per match: 7.3
- Poljicak last 15 aces per match: 7.7
- Combined average aces per match: 15.0
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 14.5Estimated chance50%

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L4-1 ret.Matej Dodig#249vMili Poljicak#263Mar 27, 2026

1 total meetings

Matej Dodig

10W 5L

6-2 6-4#274Marvin Moeller

2-2 ret.#570Saba Purtseladze

6-4 6-3#451Rudolf Molleker

6-3 6-1#440Denis Yevseyev

4-6 7-5 7-6(4)#201Lorenzo Giustino

7-5 6-3#147Stefano Travaglia

6-4 7-5#453Oleksii Krutykh

7-6(7) 6-2#828Jannik Opitz

6-4 6-2#66Pablo Carreno-Busta

5-7 6-4 6-2#140Hugo Dellien

6-4 3-6 6-3#214Henri Squire

7-6(5) 6-1#223Raul Brancaccio

4-6 7-5 6-4#276Michele Ribecai

6-2 6-4#234Sumit Nagal

6-2 7-6(4)#149Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Mili Poljicak

8W 7L

6-4 6-3#317Max Schoenhaus

7-6(6) 6-1#900Sebastian Dominko

6-4 6-0—Vaal Urankar

6-1 6-4#82Facundo Diaz Acosta

7-5 6-4#232Juan Pablo Varillas

7-6(3) 6-7(4) 7-5#138Alexandre Muller

6-7(8) 6-3 6-4#132Nikoloz Basilashvili

7-6(6) 7-6(2)#332Enrico Dalla Valle

7-6(14) 6-3#875Jozef Kovalik

6-3 6-4—Enrico Baldisserri

6-2 3-6 6-3#424Mika Brunold

7-5 7-5#492Patrick Schoen

6-4 4-6 6-4#191Lukas Neumayer

6-7(5) 6-4 6-2#387Alejo Sanchez Quilez

6-4 3-6 7-5#234Sumit Nagal

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MDMatej DodigDodig

Last 15

6–3

9 core stats · 0 even

Mili PoljicakPoljicakMP

Matej Dodig carries the stronger recent form — Mili Poljicak's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In61.7%+5.3pp56.4%

1st Serve Won74.5%+1.5pp76.0%

2nd Serve Won50.4%+1.3pp49.1%

Aces / Match7.3+0.47.7

Double Faults / Match1.80.3 fewer2.1

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won38.4%+2.7pp35.7%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted41.5%+10.9pp30.6%

Break Pts Saved60.8%+1.6pp62.4%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.6%+1.7pp49.9%

Serve · 3–2

61.7%1st Serve In+5.3pp56.4%

74.5%1st Serve Won+1.5pp76.0%

50.4%2nd Serve Won+1.3pp49.1%

7.3Aces / Match+0.47.7

1.8Double Faults / Match0.3 fewer2.1

Return · 1–0

38.4%Return Pts Won+2.7pp35.7%

Pressure · 1–1

41.5%Break Pts Converted+10.9pp30.6%

60.8%Break Pts Saved+1.6pp62.4%

Points · 1–0

51.6%Total Pts Won+1.7pp49.9%