PortugalPorto - PortugalFinished

Predictions graded

Gilles Arnaud Bailly #230Belgium0Hugo Dellien #141Bolivia2

Sets 4-6 · 0-6Thu 3 Sept 2026, 14:10 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions3–350%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageHugo Dellien · 89 places

Gilles Arnaud Bailly

Belgium

Belgian right-hander, age 20, with an ATP career-high ranking of No. 201 achieved in November 2025. His supplied current ranking is No. 230; no reliably sourced preferred-surface designation was found.

Current ranking: #230
Peak ranking: #201 · 2025
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Hugo Dellien

Bolivia

Dellien reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 64 in August 2022. ITF lists clay as his preferred surface; public sources place him at No. 141 entering this event.

Current ranking: #141
Peak ranking: #64 · 2022
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 2 Sep 2026, 03:38 · Europe/Bucharest

Dellien is favored due to superior clay form and ranking, but Bailly's competitiveness could keep it close.

Betting value is limited on the moneyline, but over 21.5 total games is a solid angle.

Context

Dellien, 33, is a clay-court specialist with 569 career wins on the surface and a current ranking of 140.
Dellien's recent clay record is 8-3, with a 57.3% games-won rate, while Bailly is 6-7 on clay in the same window. Dellien also holds a higher first-serve points won percentage on clay (70.9% vs 65.4%), giving him a clear edge in this matchup.
- Dellien's last 15 clay matches: 8 wins, 3 losses (72.7% win rate).
- Bailly's last 15 clay matches: 6 wins, 7 losses (46.2% win rate).
- Dellien's clay first-serve points won: 70.9%; Bailly's: 65.4%.
Dellien has a long history of clay-court play and has been active throughout 2026.
His retirement against Juan Carlos Prado Angelo was his only retirement in the last 15 matches, and he has since won two of three matches, including a straight-set win in the first round here. The retirement appears isolated, but it adds a small note of caution.
- Dellien retired at 6-7(4) against Juan Carlos Prado Angelo on July 29, 2026.
- He has played three matches since, winning two and losing one, with no further retirements.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Hugo Dellien

1.44fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 69.4%

0.0ppshort

Dellien's superior recent clay form and higher ranking give him a clear edge, supported by stronger serve and return metrics on the surface.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Dellien's superior recent clay form and higher ranking give him a clear edge, supported by stronger serve and return metrics on the surface.
- Dellien last 15 on clay: 8-3 record, 63% sets won, 57.3% games won
- Bailly last 15 on clay: 6-7 record, 51.6% sets won, 50.7% games won
- Dellien career clay win% 62.9 vs Bailly 59.6 overall; Dellien ranking 140 vs Bailly 244
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonHugo DellienEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With both players competitive on clay and no dominant server, a close match with over 21.5 total games is likely.
- Bailly last 15 average 22.6 games per match, Dellien 22.8
- Both players have similar games won percentages around 50% on clay
- No H2H data available
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is expected to be tight given both players' ability to hold serve, making over 9.5 games plausible.
- Bailly recent clay sets often go to 10+ games
- Dellien first set win conversion high but not dominant
- Both players have similar first serve percentages around 63-71%
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Dellien's stronger first-serve effectiveness on clay should help him take the opening set, though Bailly's return game keeps it competitive.
- Dellien first set win conversion career 88%, Bailly 88%
- Dellien clay first serve points won 70.9% vs Bailly 65.4%
- Dellien clay return points won 42.1% vs Bailly 42.7%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonHugo DellienEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Dellien's higher ace rate and Bailly's occasional serving could push total aces over 5.5 in a three-set match.
- Dellien averages 2.7 aces per match overall, 2.7 on clay
- Bailly averages 1.1 aces per match overall, 1.0 on clay
- Combined average aces per match ~3.8, but variance high
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players have moderate double fault rates, making over 4.5 total double faults a near coin-flip.
- Bailly averages 2.3 double faults per match, 2.4 on clay
- Dellien averages 2.1 double faults per match, 1.8 on clay
- Combined average ~4.4 double faults per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance50%

Previous match context available

Gilles Arnaud Bailly

6W 9L

7-6(3) 6-3#235Alex Barrena

6-4 6-2#205Timofey Skatov

4-6 6-1 6-4#369Norbert Gombos

6-2 6-4#338Raphael Perot

6-1 6-2—Fadi Bidan

6-2 6-4—Mac Visser

6-3 6-0—Zaccharie Cado

6-2 6-3#402Samuele Pieri

6-3 6-2#270Hynek Barton

7-6(4) 6-2#335Daniel Elahi Galan

2-6 6-4 6-2#319Filippo Romano

7-5 2-6 6-2#316Miguel Damas

5-7 6-4 7-5#749Andres Santamarta Roig

6-3 3-6 6-4#215Henri Squire

6-4 6-4#210Pol Martin Tiffon

Hugo Dellien

9W 6L

6-3 6-3#239Frederico Ferreira Silva

6-3 5-7 7-5#181Federico Cina

6-4 6-4#226Moez Echargui

6-3 6-1#88Sho Shimabukuro

7-5 6-2#97Benjamin Bonzi

7-6(4) ret.#155Juan Carlos Prado Angelo

6-1 6-4#148Pedro Martinez Portero

7-5 6-2#206Laslo Djere

4-6 6-1 6-3#264Michele Ribecai

2-6 6-3 6-4#554Matyas Fuele

5-7 6-0 6-1#333Enrico Dalla Valle

6-2 6-3#425Ioannis Xilas

5-7 6-4 6-2#254Matej Dodig

4-6 7-6(4) 6-4#428Henry Bernet

3-6 6-0 7-5#220Nikolas Sanchez-Izquierdo

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

GBGilles Arnaud BaillyBailly

Last 15

1–6

9 core stats · 2 even

Hugo DellienDellienHD

Hugo Dellien carries the stronger recent form — Gilles Arnaud Bailly's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

1st Serve In63.7%+6.8pp70.5%

1st Serve Won64.8%+4.2pp69.0%

2nd Serve Won47.2%+1.7pp48.9%

Aces / Match1.1+1.62.7

Double Faults / Match2.3—2.1

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won41.3%—40.6%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted41.2%+5.1pp46.3%

Break Pts Saved58.2%+2.5pp55.7%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.0%+1.8pp51.8%

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

63.7%1st Serve In+6.8pp70.5%

64.8%1st Serve Won+4.2pp69.0%

47.2%2nd Serve Won+1.7pp48.9%

1.1Aces / Match+1.62.7

2.3Double Faults / Match—2.1

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

41.3%Return Pts Won—40.6%

Pressure · 1–1

41.2%Break Pts Converted+5.1pp46.3%

58.2%Break Pts Saved+2.5pp55.7%

Points · 0–1

50.0%Total Pts Won+1.8pp51.8%