PortugalPorto - PortugalFinished

Predictions graded

Pedro Vives Marcos #531Spain0Hugo Dellien #141Bolivia2

Sets 4-6 · 1-6Sat 5 Sept 2026, 09:55 Predictions gradedSemi-FinalClay

Predictions5–363%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageHugo Dellien · 390 places

Pedro Vives Marcos

Spain

His singles career-high ranking was No. 463 in November 2025. He is listed as preferring hard courts.

Current ranking: #531
Peak ranking: #463 · 2025
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Hugo Dellien

Bolivia

Dellien reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 64 in August 2022. ITF lists clay as his preferred surface; public sources place him at No. 141 entering this event.

Current ranking: #141
Peak ranking: #64 · 2022
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Sep 2026, 22:10 · Europe/Bucharest

Dellien's clay pedigree and stronger recent opposition give him a slight edge, but Vives Marcos's 13-2 clay run and home advantage make the 1.29 price on Dellien poor value.

Best bets: Vives Marcos +3.5 games and over 21.5 total games, with a lean to over 2.5 sets.

Context

Vives Marcos, 24, is a Spanish clay-court grinder ranked 538, with a career 60% win rate and 114 clay wins.
His recent form is built on beating lower-ranked opponents, but he has also taken out Roberto Carballes Baena (retirement) and Alejandro Moro Canas. The sample is strong on clay, but his serve and return numbers are only slightly above average, so he will need to sustain long rallies against Dellien.
- Last 15 overall record: 13-2 (86.7%), all on clay.
- Last 5 matches: 5 wins, including a retirement win over Carballes Baena and a three-set win over Moro Canas.
- Clay surface record in 2026: 16-6.
Dellien, 33, is a Bolivian clay-court specialist ranked 140, with a career 63% win rate and 571 clay wins.
His recent clay numbers are solid: 72.7% win rate, 59.9% games won, and 43.8% return points won. He has also beaten higher-ranked opponents like Pedro Martinez Portero and Gilles Arnaud Bailly this week. His experience and superior clay pedigree give him an edge, though Vives Marcos' current hot streak keeps this competitive.
- Last 15 overall record: 9-6 (60%), but on clay: 8-3 (72.7%).
- Career clay wins: 571 vs Vives Marcos' 114.
- Recent clay wins over Martinez Portero (rank 148) and Bailly (rank 244).
Dellien's first serve is a reliable weapon on clay, landing 71.4% of first serves in his last 11 clay matches.
He wins 68.3% of first-serve points and 43.8% of return points, compared to Vives Marcos' 61.4% first-serve in and 42.7% return points won. The margins are narrow, but Dellien's slightly better serving and returning could decide close games.
- Dellien clay last 11: first serve in 71.4%, first serve points won 68.3%, return points won 43.8%.
- Vives Marcos clay last 15: first serve in 61.4%, first serve points won 68.8%, return points won 42.7%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Hugo Dellien

1.29fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Dellien's superior clay pedigree and stronger recent opposition give him a slight edge, though Vives Marcos's hot streak keeps it competitive.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Dellien's superior clay pedigree and stronger recent opposition give him a slight edge, though Vives Marcos's hot streak keeps it competitive.
- Hugo Dellien has a 72.7% win rate on clay in his last 11 clay matches (8-3), while Pedro Vives Marcos is 86.7% in his last 15 (13-2), but Dellien's opponents have been higher ranked on average.
- Dellien's career clay record is 571-? with a 63% overall win rate, and he has extensive clay experience; Vives Marcos has a 60.2% career win rate and 114 clay wins.
- Dellien's last 15 overall record is 9-6 (60%), but his clay-specific record is 8-3 (72.7%), showing better form on this surface.
- Vives Marcos has won 13 of his last 15 matches, but many were against lower-ranked opponents (e.g., #430, #373, #209, unranked), while Dellien has faced #244, #239, #316 in his recent wins.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonHugo DellienEstimated chance62%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combination of Vives Marcos's high game totals and the likelihood of a close match supports over 21.5 games.
- Vives Marcos's last 15 matches average 24.5 games per match (367 total games / 15 matches).
- Dellien's last 15 matches average 21.1 games per match (316 total games / 15 matches).
- Vives Marcos has played 3 three-set matches in his last 5, and Dellien has played 2 three-set matches in his last 5.
- Both players have similar games won percentages (56.1% vs 55.1%), suggesting competitive matches.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Vives Marcos's strong recent form and ability to keep matches close make +3.5 games a reasonable handicap.
- Vives Marcos has a 56.1% games won percentage in his last 15 matches, while Dellien has 55.1%.
- Vives Marcos's average games per match is 24.5, and Dellien's is 21.1, indicating Vives Marcos plays closer matches.
- In their recent matches, Vives Marcos has won 13 of 15, often in straight sets but with competitive scores.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonPedro Vives Marcos +3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Vives Marcos's tendency to play longer first sets, especially with tiebreaks, makes over 9.5 games plausible.
- Vives Marcos's first sets in his last 5 matches: 6-3, 4-6, 7-6, 7-5, 5-7 (average 10.6 games).
- Dellien's first sets in his last 5 matches: 6-2, 6-4, 6-3, 3-6, 6-4 (average 8.8 games).
- Vives Marcos has played 3 tiebreaks in his last 15 matches, and Dellien has played 1 tiebreak in his last 15.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Slight lean to Dellien based on his recent first-set success against similar-level opponents, but low confidence due to Vives Marcos's strong start rate.
- Dellien has won the first set in 7 of his last 11 clay matches (63.6%), while Vives Marcos has won the first set in 10 of his last 15 (66.7%).
- Dellien's first set win conversion is 88% career, and Vives Marcos's is 89%, both strong.
- In their last 5 matches, Dellien won the first set in 3 (vs Damas, Bailly, Ferreira Silva) and lost it in 2 (vs Cina, Prado Angelo).
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonHugo DellienEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined three-set rate is above 35%, and Vives Marcos's tendency to play long matches increases the likelihood of over 2.5 sets.
- Vives Marcos has played 7 three-set matches in his last 15 (46.7%), and Dellien has played 4 three-set matches in his last 15 (26.7%).
- Combined, 11 of 30 matches (36.7%) went to three sets in their recent windows.
- Vives Marcos's high three-set rate and Dellien's ability to push matches suggest a decent chance of a deciding set.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined average double faults is below the line, and both players have relatively low double fault rates on clay.
- Vives Marcos averages 2.8 double faults per match in his last 15, and Dellien averages 1.9 double faults per match in his last 15.
- Combined average double faults per match: 4.7, which is under 5.5.
- Dellien's clay-specific double faults per match is 1.6, and Vives Marcos's is 2.8.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined ace average is slightly below 5.5, but variance and the possibility of a longer match could push it over.
- Vives Marcos averages 2.1 aces per match in his last 15, and Dellien averages 2.7 aces per match in his last 15.
- Combined average aces per match: 4.8, but both players have had matches with higher ace counts.
- Dellien's career ace count is 1334 in 935 matches (1.4 per match), but recent form shows higher ace rates.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The price on Dellien is far too short given Vives Marcos's recent clay dominance and the competitive nature of this matchup.

Previous match context available

Pedro Vives Marcos

13W 2L

6-3 5-7 7-6(4)#238Alejandro Moro Canas 4-6 7-6(1) 6-4#430Niels Visker 7-6(3) 6-4#373Eduardo Ribeiro

7-5 2-2 ret.#209Roberto Carballes Baena

5-7 6-2 6-2—Joao Silva

6-2 7-5#676Pedro Rodenas

6-2 7-5—Bernardo Munk Mesa

6-7(9) 6-2 6-1—Aren Baybars

4-6 6-3 7-5—Sergi Fita Juan

7-5 6-2—Tomas Torres Remon

6-4 6-2#615Branko Djuric

6-4 7-6(4)—Lorenzo Comino

6-4 7-5#866Yanaki Milev

4-6 6-4 7-6(2)#859Ali Yazdani

6-4 6-2#896Andrea Fiorentini

Hugo Dellien

9W 6L

6-2 6-4#316Miguel Damas 6-4 6-0#244Gilles Arnaud Bailly 6-3 6-3#239Frederico Ferreira Silva

6-3 5-7 7-5#181Federico Cina

6-4 6-4#226Moez Echargui

6-3 6-1#88Sho Shimabukuro

7-5 6-2#97Benjamin Bonzi

7-6(4) ret.#155Juan Carlos Prado Angelo

6-1 6-4#148Pedro Martinez Portero

7-5 6-2#206Laslo Djere

4-6 6-1 6-3#264Michele Ribecai

2-6 6-3 6-4#554Matyas Fuele

5-7 6-0 6-1#333Enrico Dalla Valle

6-2 6-3#425Ioannis Xilas

5-7 6-4 6-2#254Matej Dodig

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

PMPedro Vives MarcosMarcos

Last 15

5–4

9 core stats · 0 even

Hugo DellienDellienHD

Pedro Vives Marcos carries the stronger recent form — Hugo Dellien's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In61.4%+8.9pp70.3%

1st Serve Won68.8%+1.8pp67.0%

2nd Serve Won52.6%+3.3pp49.3%

Aces / Match2.1+0.62.7

Double Faults / Match2.80.9 fewer1.9

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won42.7%+0.9pp41.8%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted43.4%+3.9pp47.3%

Break Pts Saved63.1%+8.7pp54.4%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.5%+0.8pp51.7%

Serve · 2–3

61.4%1st Serve In+8.9pp70.3%

68.8%1st Serve Won+1.8pp67.0%

52.6%2nd Serve Won+3.3pp49.3%

2.1Aces / Match+0.62.7

2.8Double Faults / Match0.9 fewer1.9

Return · 1–0

42.7%Return Pts Won+0.9pp41.8%

Pressure · 1–1

43.4%Break Pts Converted+3.9pp47.3%

63.1%Break Pts Saved+8.7pp54.4%

Points · 1–0

52.5%Total Pts Won+0.8pp51.7%

Pedro Vives Marcos

Hugo Dellien

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Hugo Dellien

Result1 of 1 landed

Games3 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Hugo Dellien @ 1.29

Pedro Vives Marcos

Hugo Dellien

Stat Battle