PortugalPorto - PortugalFinished

Predictions graded

Frederico Ferreira Silva #236Portugal0Hugo Dellien #141Bolivia2

Sets 3-6 · 3-6Tue 1 Sept 2026, 12:00 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions6–275%

Edges2–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageHugo Dellien · 95 places

Frederico Ferreira Silva

Portugal

Portuguese left-hander whose career-high ATP singles ranking was No. 168 on 24 May 2021. ITF lists clay as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #236
Peak ranking: #168 · 2021
Current age: 31
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Left handed
Height: 178 cm

Hugo Dellien

Bolivia

Dellien reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 64 in August 2022. ITF lists clay as his preferred surface; public sources place him at No. 141 entering this event.

Current ranking: #141
Peak ranking: #64 · 2022
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 31 Aug 2026, 06:41 · Europe/Bucharest

Hugo Dellien is favored over Frederico Ferreira Silva on clay in Porto, backed by superior recent form and return stats.

Dellien's edge is clear, but the odds are short, and Ferreira Silva's competitiveness could make it closer than expected. Consider Dellien -2.5 games or straight sets for better value.

Context

Dellien, ranked 140, is a clay-court specialist with 568 career wins on clay compared to only 14 on hard courts. Silva, ranked 236, has a more balanced surface record but has struggled recently on clay.
Dellien's last 15 matches on clay show a 72.7% win rate and 54% of total points won, while Silva has won only 33.3% of his last 12 clay matches. This surface gap is the central dynamic, though Silva's recent hard-court win over a top-200 opponent suggests he can compete if he adjusts quickly.
- Dellien's last 15 clay matches: 8-3 record, 54% total points won.
- Silva's last 15 clay matches: 4-8 record, 49% total points won.
- Dellien's career clay wins: 568; Silva's career clay wins: 219.
Dellien retired during a clay match against Juan Carlos Prado Angelo on July 29, 2026, after losing the first set in a tiebreak.
Since the retirement, Dellien has played four hard-court matches, winning one and losing three. His fitness appears manageable, but the retirement is recent enough to introduce some uncertainty about his physical readiness for a clay-court battle.
- Retired on 2026-07-29 vs Prado Angelo (clay).
- Since then: 1-3 on hard courts, including a three-set loss to Federico Cina on Aug 27.
- No current injury report, but retirement is within 30 days of this match.
Silva, a left-hander, has a career win rate of 60.7% but has struggled on clay in 2026, winning only 12 of 30 matches on that surface.
In his last 12 clay matches, Silva has won only 33.3% and his return points won is just 35.4%. He has lost to players ranked outside the top 200, which suggests he may struggle against Dellien's consistent clay game.
- Silva's last 12 clay matches: 4-8 record.
- Return points won on clay: 35.4%.
- Recent clay losses to players ranked 186, 262, 203, 409, 172, 148, 372.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Hugo Dellien

1.44fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 69.4%

0.0ppshort

Dellien's superior recent clay form and return game give him a clear edge on this surface.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Hugo Dellien

1.44fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 69.4%

0.0ppshort

Dellien's stronger clay serve and break conversion should help him start fast.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Dellien's superior recent clay form and return game give him a clear edge on this surface.
- Dellien last15 overall record 9-6 (60%), Ferreira Silva 5-10 (33.3%)
- Dellien clay last15 record 8-3 (72.7%), Ferreira Silva clay last15 4-8 (33.3%)
- Dellien clay last15 return points won 41.9%, Ferreira Silva clay last15 35.4%
- Dellien career clay wins 568, Ferreira Silva 219
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonHugo DellienEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Competitive clay match likely to feature at least one tight set, pushing total games over.
- Ferreira Silva last15 average duration 124.1 min, Dellien 103 min
- Ferreira Silva clay last15 games won 47.6%, Dellien 58%
- Both players have multiple three-set matches in recent form
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Dellien's superior clay game should allow him to cover a small game handicap.
- Dellien clay last15 games won 58%, Ferreira Silva 47.6%
- Dellien overall last15 games won 54%, Ferreira Silva 48.3%
- Dellien has won 8 of last 11 clay matches
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonHugo Dellien -2.5Estimated chance50%

Sets2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Dellien's stronger clay serve and break conversion should help him start fast.
- Dellien clay last15 first serve points won 71.8%, Ferreira Silva 69.7%
- Dellien clay last15 break points converted 48.8%, Ferreira Silva 41%
- Dellien overall last15 first set win rate implied by 60% match win and 55.6% sets won
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonHugo DellienEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Dellien's consistency on clay should carry him through the second set.
- Dellien clay last15 second serve points won 53.8%, Ferreira Silva 50.4%
- Dellien clay last15 break points saved 55.1%, Ferreira Silva 64.5%
- Dellien's overall clay dominance suggests he can win the second set
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonHugo DellienEstimated chance58%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Clay surface and break-heavy play make a tiebreak less likely.
- Ferreira Silva career tiebreak win pct 50%, Dellien 52%
- Clay matches often feature breaks, reducing tiebreak likelihood
- Dellien clay last15 break points converted 48.8%
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have low ace rates, especially on clay, making under 7.5 likely.
- Ferreira Silva last15 aces per match 2.7, Dellien 2.9
- Clay surface reduces ace counts
- Combined average aces per match ~5.6
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 7.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have moderate double fault rates, and clay tends to reduce double faults slightly.
- Ferreira Silva last15 double faults per match 2.4, Dellien 1.9
- Clay last15: Ferreira Silva 1.9, Dellien 1.6
- Combined average double faults per match ~4.3
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W6-2 6-3Frederico Ferreira Silva#236vHugo Dellien#140Mar 12, 2012

1 total meetings

Frederico Ferreira Silva

5W 10L

6-2 3-6 6-1#143Jurij Rodionov

7-5 6-2#190Diego Dedura

6-4 7-5#186Jan Kumstat

6-2 4-6 6-1#327Nicolas Kicker

6-1 3-6 6-3#253Maks Kasnikowski

7-5 6-7(4) 6-1#40Luca Van Assche

6-4 6-2#262Martin Krumich

2-6 6-3 6-4#203Luka Pavlovic

6-4 6-3#409Olle Wallin

6-3 6-3#195Edas Butvilas

3-6 7-6(0) 7-6(5)#249Matej Dodig

6-4 6-3#172Gonzalo Bueno

6-4 6-3#338Mathys Erhard

6-2 7-5#148Pedro Martinez Portero

4-6 7-5 6-3#372Manas Manoj Dhamne

Hugo Dellien

9W 6L

6-3 5-7 7-5#181Federico Cina

6-4 6-4#225Moez Echargui

6-3 6-1#87Sho Shimabukuro

7-5 6-2#109Benjamin Bonzi

7-6(4) ret.#155Juan Carlos Prado Angelo

6-1 6-4#148Pedro Martinez Portero

7-5 6-2#206Laslo Djere

4-6 6-1 6-3#276Michele Ribecai

2-6 6-3 6-4#547Matyas Fuele

5-7 6-0 6-1#332Enrico Dalla Valle

6-2 6-3#418Ioannis Xilas

5-7 6-4 6-2#249Matej Dodig

4-6 7-6(4) 6-4#423Henry Bernet

3-6 6-0 7-5#219Nikolas Sanchez-Izquierdo

6-1 6-2#187Andrea Guerrieri

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

FSFrederico Ferreira SilvaSilva

Last 15

2–5

9 core stats · 2 even

Hugo DellienDellienHD

Hugo Dellien carries the stronger recent form — Frederico Ferreira Silva's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–2 · 2 even

1st Serve In60.4%+9.9pp70.3%

1st Serve Won69.0%—69.6%

2nd Serve Won51.3%+1.5pp49.8%

Aces / Match2.7—2.9

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/152.40.5 fewer1.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won36.0%+4.4pp40.4%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted41.0%+7.5pp48.5%

Break Pts Saved61.3%+5.3pp56.0%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.3%+2.8pp52.1%

Serve · 1–2 · 2 even

60.4%1st Serve In+9.9pp70.3%

69.0%1st Serve Won—69.6%

51.3%2nd Serve Won+1.5pp49.8%

2.7Aces / Match—2.9

2.4Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/150.5 fewer1.9

Return · 0–1

36.0%Return Pts Won+4.4pp40.4%

Pressure · 1–1

41.0%Break Pts Converted+7.5pp48.5%

61.3%Break Pts Saved+5.3pp56.0%

Points · 0–1

49.3%Total Pts Won+2.8pp52.1%