NB IUpcomingFeatured

Puskas AcademyDebrecen

Sun 1 Nov 2026, 12:301 Nov, 12:30

8Probabilities6Priced6Edges84%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight lean

Quick Take

Read first

Context last updated 31 Oct 2026, 04:03 · Europe/Bucharest

Puskas sit second but have lost three of five home league games, and Debrecen have been beaten once in five on the road in NB I, so Debrecen avoiding defeat is the better-supported result.

The prices still ask too much: draw-or-Debrecen at 1.6 needs 62.5% against roughly 56%, both teams to score at 1.5 needs 66.7% against 60%, and Over 1.5 goals at 1.17 needs 85.5% against 84%. No quoted price is worth backing.

Context

No confirmed team news for either side. The two off-field items — a Hungarian Cup draw for Puskas and a reported Debrecen executive appointment for next season — leave the likely line-ups and the matchup unchanged.

The visiting side has taken three of the last five meetings: Puskas 2-0 in Debrecen in July 2026 and 1-0 there in December 2025, plus Debrecen's 3-1 win at Puskas in August 2025. The only draw was 1-1 at Puskas in March 2026. That spread is a fair warning against treating home advantage as decisive in this fixture.
- 26 Jul 2026: Debrecen 0-2 Puskas Academy (NB I).
- 6 Dec 2025: Debrecen 0-1 Puskas Academy (NB I).
- 22 Aug 2025: Puskas Academy 1-3 Debrecen (NB I).
- 22 Mar 2026: Puskas Academy 1-1 Debrecen (NB I).
Second place and 21 points are real, but the home split undercuts any assumption of home comfort, and it includes a 1-2 loss to Nyiregyhaza on 25 October. Debrecen's league away record of 2W-2D-1L in five is steady rather than dominant. The contrast in splits, not the table, is what shapes this game.
- NB I 2026: Puskas 11 played, 7W-0D-4L, 21 points, 16 scored, 12 conceded.
- Puskas home split: 5 played, 2W-0D-3L, 8 scored, 9 conceded.
- Puskas away split: 6 played, 5W-0D-1L, 8 scored, 3 conceded.
- Debrecen away split: 5 played, 2W-2D-1L, 9 scored, 7 conceded.
Both goals came after a goalless first half, and the 19-9 shot count with eight on target against two describes a controlled away performance rather than a smash-and-grab. It is the clearest recent evidence of how Debrecen travel. Puskas have conceded in all five of their home league games, so that shot volume is a fair measure of the test they face.
- 24 Oct 2026: Budapest Honved 0-2 Debrecen (NB I).
- Debrecen: 19 shots, 8 on target; Honved: 9 shots, 2 on target.
- Half-time score 0-0; both Debrecen goals came in the second half.
On 29 October, Puskás Academy were paired with Kozármisleny in the Hungarian Cup round of 16. That gives the club another domestic opponent to schedule around after the home league match against Debrecen. The draw provides no date, planned lineup or squad-status information, limiting any implication for this fixture.
- Puskás Academy were drawn against second-division Kozármisleny in the Hungarian Cup round of 16.
- The draw was published on 29 October.
ConfirmedSources checked 31 Oct 2026, 04:01 · Europe/BucharestPuskás Akadémiapuskasakademia.hu · 29 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChanceUncertainty band: Slight lean

Draw or Debrecen

1.60fair 1.79

BetBugs 56% · Market 62.5%

−6.5ppshort

Puskas are strong overall but have lost three of five at home, while Debrecen have been hard to beat on the road, so the draw-or-away side is supported.

Both Teams to ScoreUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.50fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 66.7%

−6.7ppshort

Neither side's recent profile is clean-sheet heavy, and Puskas home games have regularly seen both teams score.

Goals Over/UnderUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 1.5

1.17fair 1.19

BetBugs 84% · Market 85.5%

−1.5ppshort

Both teams' home and away splits point to at least two goals, and recent head-to-heads have rarely been low-scoring.

Home Goals TotalUncertainty band: Strong lean

Puskas Academy over 0.5

1.17fair 1.22

BetBugs 82% · Market 85.5%

−3.5ppshort

Puskas have scored in most matches and rarely blank at home, while Debrecen's away clean-sheet rate is only moderate.

Away Goals TotalUncertainty band: Strong lean

Debrecen over 0.5

1.25fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 80%

−2.0ppshort

Debrecen have scored in most of their matches and Puskas have not kept a home clean sheet this season.

1st Half GoalsUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.25fair 1.32

BetBugs 76% · Market 80%

−4.0ppshort

Both teams have first-half scoring and conceding records that make at least one first-half goal likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result1 outcome · top 56%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Puskas are strong overall but have lost three of five at home, while Debrecen have been hard to beat on the road, so the draw-or-away side is supported.
- Puskas home record this season: 2W-0D-3L, 8 goals for and 9 against in 5 home matches.
- Debrecen away split: 4W-3D-2L in 9 away matches, with only two away losses.
- Puskas have no home draws in five NB I home matches this season.
- H2H: Puskas won 3 of the last 5 meetings, but Debrecen won 3-1 at Puskas in Aug 2025.
BetBugs · Double ChanceDraw or DebrecenMarket price1.60Estimated chance56%

Goals6 outcomes · top 84%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Neither side's recent profile is clean-sheet heavy, and Puskas home games have regularly seen both teams score.
- Puskas home: both teams scored in 4 of 5, with no home clean sheets.
- Debrecen away: both teams scored in 6 of 9.
- Puskas overall both teams scored in 7 of 13; Debrecen overall 9 of 15.
- Last five H2H produced both teams scoring in 3, including 1-1, 1-3 and 4-2.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreYesMarket price1.50Estimated chance60%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.17
The read
Both teams' home and away splits point to at least two goals, and recent head-to-heads have rarely been low-scoring.
- Puskas home matches average 3.4 total goals (1.6 for, 1.8 against).
- Debrecen away matches average 3.56 total goals (1.78 for, 1.78 against).
- Four of the last five H2H meetings had at least two goals.
- Puskas overall average 3.08 total goals per match.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderOver 1.5Market price1.17Estimated chance84%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.17
The read
Puskas have scored in most matches and rarely blank at home, while Debrecen's away clean-sheet rate is only moderate.
- Puskas scored in 11 of 13 competitive matches overall.
- Puskas home: both teams scored in 4 of 5, with no home clean sheets.
- Debrecen away clean sheets: 3 in 9 away matches.
- Debrecen overall conceded in 10 of 15 matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalPuskas Academy over 0.5Market price1.17Estimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Debrecen have scored in most of their matches and Puskas have not kept a home clean sheet this season.
- Debrecen scored in 12 of 15 competitive matches overall.
- Debrecen away split: 7 goals in 9 away matches.
- Puskas have no clean sheets in five home matches.
- Puskas overall kept four clean sheets in 13, but none at home in the home split.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalDebrecen over 0.5Market price1.25Estimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Both teams have first-half scoring and conceding records that make at least one first-half goal likely.
- Puskas first-half goals for average 1.08; first-half goals against 0.38.
- Debrecen first-half goals for average 0.73; first-half goals against 0.73.
- Combined first-half goal expectation is about 1.8 per match.
- Puskas scored first-half goals in recent games, including 2 vs Honved and 1 vs Nyiregyhaza.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfMarket price1.25Estimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring and conceding rates for both teams point to a reasonable chance of two or more goals after the break.
- Puskas second-half goals for average 0.92; against 0.69.
- Debrecen second-half goals for average 0.93; against 1.00.
- Combined second-half goal expectation is about 1.85 per match.
- Both teams have conceded second-half goals at a steady rate.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfOver 1.5Estimated chance62%

Match stats1 outcome · top 62%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches have regularly produced shot volumes above this line, with each side allowing plenty of attempts.
- Puskas matches average 28.0 total shots (12.5 for, 15.5 against over 10 matches).
- Debrecen matches average 31.46 total shots (14.46 for, 17 against over 13 matches).
- Both teams allow more shots than they take, suggesting an open contest.
- Puskas recent home matches include 9-10 and 16-15 shot counts.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderOver 26.5Estimated chance62%