Paks2Debrecen4

HT 1–3Sat 5 Sept 2026, 18:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–555%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 63%–37%ShotsShots 34–14On targetOn target 13–7CornersCorners 8–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 2 Sep 2026, 01:23 · Europe/Bucharest

Paks are favourites at home against Debrecen, but the market has already priced in their advantage, leaving no value on the home win or double chance.

The goals markets are particularly overpriced relative to our model, so avoid Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. The most actionable takeaway is to stay away from this match unless the odds shift significantly.

Context

Paks attacker D. Böde is out after thigh surgery, with the player reporting a three-to-four-month absence.
Paks must plan without Böde for this match, removing an experienced forward from their attacking options. The linked match-winner outlook still favours Paks, but that reasoning rests on home form and head-to-head dominance rather than Böde's availability. His absence reduces depth in the final third, though the exact replacement is not specified.
- Paks reported that Böde had surgery after a thigh injury sustained in training.
- The player said the expected absence was three to four months.
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Sep 2026, 01:21 · Europe/Bucharest24.hu24.hu · 22 Aug 2026
Paks are sixth in NB I with eight points from six matches.
Their home form is a clear strength: they beat Ujpest 2-0 on 21 August and Ferencvaros 4-2 on 26 July, and drew 2-2 with Budapest Honved on 9 August. Debrecen have lost one and drawn one of their two away games, so Paks' home advantage could be significant.
- Paks home record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses, 8 goals for, 4 against.
- Beat Ujpest 2-0 on 2026-08-21.
- Beat Ferencvaros 4-2 on 2026-07-26.
- Drew 2-2 with Budapest Honved on 2026-08-09.
Paks defender M. Zeke has joined Újpest, confirmed by the club on 28 August.
Zeke is no longer available for Paks in this fixture, removing a squad member from defensive selection. The claim does not state how often Zeke featured recently, so the practical effect on the starting back line is uncertain. Paks will need to cover his absence from within the current squad.
- Paks announced that Zeke had continued his career with Újpest on 28 August.
- Independent reporting the same day described Zeke as leaving Paks for Újpest.
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Sep 2026, 01:21 · Europe/BucharestPaksi FCpaksifc.hu · 28 Aug 2026M4 Sportm4sport.hu · 28 Aug 2026
Debrecen have won one, drawn three, and lost two of their six league matches.
They are in the relegation zone and need points to climb out. Their away form is poor: no wins in two away games, with two goals scored and four conceded. This match is important for their survival hopes.
- Debrecen rank 11th with 6 points from 6 matches.
- Away record: 0 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, 2 goals for, 4 against.
- Only 2 points above 12th-placed Zalaegerszegi TE.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Paks

1.91fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 52.4%

0.0ppshort

Paks's strong home form and dominant H2H record give them the edge, but the odds already reflect that and offer no value.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Paks or Draw

1.30fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 76.9%

−1.9ppshort

Paks's unbeaten home record and historical dominance over Debrecen make a home win or draw highly likely, but the odds are slightly short.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.33fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 75.2%

0.0ppshort

Paks's high-scoring home games and Debrecen's defensive vulnerabilities point to a match with multiple goals.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Over 3.5

1.85fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 54%

−9.1ppshort

Paks's high-scoring home games and Debrecen's defensive vulnerabilities point to a match with multiple goals.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.35fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 74.1%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have shown ability to score, and Paks's defensive record suggests Debrecen can find the net.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Paks's strong home form and dominant H2H record give them the edge, while Debrecen's poor away form and relegation struggle reduce their chances.
- Paks home record this season: 2W 1D 0L, 8 goals scored, 4 conceded in 3 matches.
- Debrecen away record this season: 0W 1D 1L, 2 goals scored, 4 conceded in 2 matches.
- H2H last 5: Paks won 3, drew 2, lost 0; at Paks home Paks won 2, drew 1.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostPaksEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Paks's unbeaten home record and historical dominance over Debrecen make a home win or draw highly likely.
- Paks home record: unbeaten in 3 (2W 1D).
- Debrecen away record: 0W 1D 1L.
- H2H last 5: Paks never lost to Debrecen (3W 2D).
BetBugs · Double ChancelostPaks or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Paks's home advantage and Debrecen's poor first-half record suggest Paks may lead at the break.
- Paks led at half-time in 33% of last 15 matches.
- Debrecen trailed at half-time in 47% of last 15 matches.
- Paks home first-half goal difference: +0.3 per match.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostPaksEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Paks's home dominance and Debrecen's away struggles make a home win with a half-time lead plausible.
- Paks home record: 2W 1D, often scoring early.
- Debrecen away record: 0W 1D 1L, trailing at half-time in 47% of matches.
- H2H: Paks won 3 of last 5, including 5-2 home win.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostPaks/PaksEstimated chance30%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Paks's high-scoring home games and Debrecen's defensive vulnerabilities point to a match with multiple goals.
- Paks average 2.3 goals scored and 2.1 conceded per match in last 15.
- Debrecen average 1.0 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per match in last 15.
- H2H last 5: total goals 5, 1, 2, 0, 7; 3 of 5 over 2.5.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown ability to score, and Paks's defensive record suggests Debrecen can find the net.
- Paks scored in all 3 home league games this season (8 goals).
- Debrecen scored in 4 of 6 league games this season.
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in 3 of 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Paks's tendency to score early at home and Debrecen's first-half defensive lapses could produce a lively opening period.
- Paks average 1.1 first-half goals scored and 1.0 conceded in last 15.
- Debrecen average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 1.0 conceded in last 15.
- H2H last 5: first-half goals data not available, but total goals often high.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to concede in the second half, and Paks's attacking depth could lead to late goals.
- Paks average 1.2 second-half goals scored and 1.1 conceded in last 15.
- Debrecen average 0.5 second-half goals scored and 0.8 conceded in last 15.
- H2H last 5: second-half goals likely contributed to high totals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate high corner counts, suggesting a total above 9.5 corners is likely.
- Paks average 5.8 corners per match, Debrecen average 7.8 corners per match.
- Combined average corners: 13.6 per match.
- H2H last 5: corner data not available, but both teams attack.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Paks's attacking volume and Debrecen's defensive pressure could lead to a high number of shots on target.
- Paks average 5.3 shots on target per match, Debrecen average 3.8.
- Combined average shots on target: 9.1 per match.
- Paks home shots on target likely higher.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The match's competitive nature and both teams' disciplinary records suggest a card-heavy game.
- Paks average 2.0 yellow cards per match, Debrecen average 2.5.
- Combined average yellow cards: 4.5 per match.
- Both teams have red card tendencies (0.5 each per match).
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance50%