Wisla Plock1Radomiak Radom0

HT 1–0Mon 19 Oct 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–753%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 46%–54%ShotsShots 5–16On targetOn target 1–1CornersCorners 2–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 Oct 2026, 18:19 · Europe/Bucharest

Two bottom-half sides meet at Płock, where Radomiak have taken one point and scored twice in four away league games while conceding 13.

Wisła Płock have the steadier home case, though they lost 3-0 at Wieczysta on 9 October. The Wisła win at 1.85 asks more than the case supports; three prices offer something: under 2.5 goals at 2.3, a goalless first half at 3.4 and both teams to score — No at 2.3.

Context

Carver, appointed on 29 September, is two matches into rebooting Radomiak and the club has called a pre-match briefing for 16 October. He has said he will keep the high press he used at Lechia Gdańsk and that he has better defenders at Radomiak, making this the first away test of that approach. His league debut, a 2-3 home loss to Motor Lublin on 12 October, showed both the aggression and the gaps of a reshaped back line. The counterpoint is that Radomiak again created little from open play, so the new structure is a work in progress rather than a settled edge.
- Radomiak Radom announced John Carver as head coach on 29 September 2026, on a contract to 30 June 2027 with an option for a further season.
- Carver's first Ekstraklasa match in charge was a 2-3 home defeat to Motor Lublin on 12 October 2026.
ConfirmedSources checked 15 Oct 2026, 18:17 · Europe/Bucharest
Kingue's return gives Carver a recognised centre-back option for the first away match of his tenure, after the defender came back into the side and scored against Motor Lublin. Radomiak conceded three at home in that match, so how they set up defensively at Płock is a live selection question. The caveat is that one comeback appearance does not establish match sharpness or a guaranteed starting role.
- Radomiak's official account marked 'Twój powrót na boisko zwieńczony zdobytą bramką' for Kingue after the Motor Lublin match.
- Kingue scored Radomiak's equaliser in the 2-3 home loss to Motor Lublin on 12 October 2026.
ConfirmedSources checked 15 Oct 2026, 18:17 · Europe/Bucharest
After 10 rounds Radomiak sit in the bottom three while Wisła Płock are among the clubs just above the drop zone, so this is a direct meeting between two sides with survival as the realistic target. A public projection put Radomiak's relegation probability at 40% and Wisła Płock's at 18%, underlining how much a home win would ease the hosts and how costly a defeat could be for Carver's side. The projection is a model output rather than a result and early-season probabilities move quickly, so it frames the stakes rather than forecasting the match.
- Radomiak dropped into the relegation zone after their matchday-10 defeat to Motor Lublin on 12 October 2026.
- A pre-round projection placed Radomiak's relegation probability at 40% and Wisła Płock's at 18%.
ConfirmedSources checked 15 Oct 2026, 18:17 · Europe/Bucharest
Radomiak left Płock with a 1-0 win on 26 April 2026, so the visitors do have a recent precedent at this ground. Wisła's case this Monday rests on Radomiak's away form across the 2026 season rather than on head-to-head dominance, and one April result does not settle that.
- Wisła Płock 0-1 Radomiak Radom in Ekstraklasa on 26 April 2026
- It was the most recent meeting between the two clubs before 19 October 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.85
The read
Wisła's home steadiness meets a Radomiak side that has taken one point and conceded heavily on the road.
- Wisła Płock's home league record is 1 win, 1 draw and 1 loss with 3 goals for and 3 against
- Radomiak's away league record is 0 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses with 2 scored and 13 conceded
- Radomiak sit 16th on 8 points and concede about 2.09 goals per game
- Wisła sit 12th on 11 points and average 1.2 goals scored per game
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonWisla PlockEstimated chance47%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.40
The read
First halves have been low-scoring, with both teams averaging under a goal before the break.
- Wisła average 0.6 first-half goals for and 0.6 against
- Radomiak average 0.45 first-half goals for and 0.91 against
- Both teams scored no first-half goals in two of their last six matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves have been close, with Radomiak scoring little away from home.
- Wisła average 0.6 second-half goals for and 1.1 against
- Radomiak average 0.45 second-half goals for and 1.18 against
- Radomiak scored no second-half goals in their away split
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance39%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Wisła's home steadiness meets a Radomiak side that has taken one point and conceded heavily on the road. Both teams have drawn regularly and the recent head-to-head produced a 1-1 draw.
- Wisła Płock's home league record is 1 win, 1 draw and 1 loss with 3 goals for and 3 against
- Radomiak's away league record is 0 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses with 2 scored and 13 conceded
- Wisła have drawn 2 of 10 competitive matches
- Radomiak have drawn 2 of 11 competitive matches
BetBugs · Double ChancewonWisla Plock or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Wisła have the slightly stronger first-half profile and home advantage. First halves have been low-scoring, with both teams averaging under a goal before the break.
- Wisła average 0.6 first-half goals for and 0.6 against
- Radomiak's away split shows 1.4 first-half goals conceded per game
- Radomiak average 0.45 first-half goals for and 0.91 against
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonWisla Plock or DrawEstimated chance79%

Goals3 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both defences give up goals and Radomiak's recent matches have been high-scoring.
- Wisła's last six competitive matches averaged about 3.0 total goals
- Radomiak concede 2.09 goals per game across 11 matches
- Radomiak's recent scorelines include 2-3, 1-5 and 0-2
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Wisła usually find a goal at home and their defence has conceded regularly.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Wisła's 10 competitive matches
- Both teams scored in 6 of Radomiak's 11 competitive matches
- Wisła score 1.2 and concede 1.7 goals per game
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Wisła's home scoring has been limited to a single goal per game so far.
- Wisła have scored 3 goals across 3 home league games
- Wisła average 1.0 goals per home match in the supplied home split
- Radomiak kept 3 clean sheets in 11 competitive matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonWisla Plock under 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Radomiak have been short of goals away from home all season.
- Radomiak have scored 2 goals in 4 away league games
- Radomiak recorded 0 second-half goals across their away split
- Wisła's home league record shows 3 goals conceded in 3 games
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonRadomiak Radom under 1.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
A first-half goal has been common in these teams' recent matches.
- Wisła's last six competitive matches produced a first-half goal in five
- Radomiak have scored or conceded in the first half in four of their last six
- Combined first-half averages are 0.6 for Wisła and 0.45 for Radomiak
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves have tended to produce goals for both teams.
- Wisła's second-half goals for and against average 0.6 and 1.1
- Radomiak's second-half goals for and against average 0.45 and 1.18
- Recent matches for both sides often produced second-half goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined corner averages sit just below the line.
- Wisła's overall corners plus opponent corners average 10.4
- Radomiak's overall corners plus opponent corners average 11.0
- Wisła's home split averages 9.3 total corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 12.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Radomiak's away games generate plenty of shots for both sides.
- Wisła average 14.4 shots and concede 14.4
- Radomiak average 13.8 shots and concede 18
- Radomiak's away split shows 20.75 opponent shots per game
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostOver 28.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Recent matches for both teams have regularly exceeded the line.
- Wisła average 4.56 shots on target and concede 4.44
- Radomiak average 4 shots on target and concede 5.7
- Radomiak's last five matches had combined shot-on-target totals of 13, 14, 13, 5 and 12
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches have produced cards above the line on average.
- Wisła receive 1.56 yellow cards per game and their opponents 2.33
- Radomiak receive 2.1 yellow cards per game and their opponents 3.2
- Radomiak's last match produced seven cards
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance58%