EkstraklasaFull time

Predictions graded

Widzew Lodz0Radomiak Radom0

HT 0–0Sat 5 Sept 2026, 12:45 Predictions graded

Predictions3–1121%

Edges2–340%

PossPossession 60%–40%ShotsShots 15–15On targetOn target 2–3CornersCorners 7–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 2 Sep 2026, 00:28 · Europe/Bucharest

Avoid Widzew Lodz in match winner and double chance markets as odds imply higher probabilities than our model estimates.

Instead, focus on goals markets: Over 2.5 goals and Both Teams to Score are fairly priced and supported by H2H trends and Radomiak's poor away defense.

Context

Radomiak Radom sit 12th in the Ekstraklasa with seven points from six matches, but their away record is the worst in the league.
They have lost both away games this season, conceding eight goals. The 5-0 defeat at Legia Warszawa on 14 August and the 3-1 loss at GKS Katowice on 2 August show a pattern of defensive struggles on the road. Widzew Lodz have scored five goals in three home matches, so they may test that weakness.
- Radomiak Radom lost 5-0 at Legia Warszawa on 2026-08-14.
- Radomiak Radom lost 3-1 at GKS Katowice on 2026-08-02.
- Radomiak Radom have conceded 8 goals in 2 away matches this season.
Widzew Lodz midfielder J. Shehu started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups and missed the 30 August match against Lech Poznań through injury.
Shehu's confirmed absence removes a regular central-midfield starter and forces Widzew to adjust their midfield organisation for this match. The manager's stated minimum three-week absence rules him out, so the team must rely on a replacement from the squad without a directly identified substitute in the available evidence.
- Widzew confirmed that Shehu missed the 30 August match against Lech Poznań through injury.
- Aleksandar Vuković said the muscle problem would keep him out for at least three weeks; reporting identifies Radomiak as one of the matches he will miss.
- J. Shehu started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Sep 2026, 00:26 · Europe/BucharestWP SportoweFaktysportowefakty.wp.pl · 31 Aug 2026Weszłoweszlo.com · 31 Aug 2026
Widzew Lodz are 13th in the Ekstraklasa with six points from six matches, but their home form has been poor.
They lost 3-2 to Lech Poznan on 30 August and 2-1 to Korona Kielce on 15 August, and drew 2-2 with Motor Lublin on 26 July. That is seven goals conceded in three home games. Radomiak Radom have also struggled away, so this match could feature defensive mistakes from both sides.
- Widzew Lodz lost 3-2 at home to Lech Poznan on 2026-08-30.
- Widzew Lodz lost 2-1 at home to Korona Kielce on 2026-08-15.
- Widzew Lodz drew 2-2 at home with Motor Lublin on 2026-07-26.
Widzew Lodz and Radomiak Radom have met five times in the Ekstraklasa since May 2024.
The most recent match on 18 April 2026 ended 2-1 to Radomiak Radom at home. Before that, Widzew Lodz won 3-2 at home on 17 October 2025, and the two meetings in 2024 also had at least three goals. This suggests an open game is likely, though the current poor home form of Widzew Lodz adds uncertainty.
- Radomiak Radom beat Widzew Lodz 2-1 at home on 2026-04-18.
- Widzew Lodz beat Radomiak Radom 3-2 at home on 2025-10-17.
- The last four H2H matches had at least three goals.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Widzew Lodz

1.73fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 57.8%

0.0ppshort

Despite the negative edge, the predictor's medium-confidence home win is underpinned by Radomiak's terrible away record and H2H home dominance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Widzew Lodz or Draw

1.22fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

The predictor's 70% estimate is below the market's 82% implied, so no value exists despite the medium confidence.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Widzew's home struggles are offset by Radomiak's terrible away form and the H2H pattern favoring the home side.
- Widzew Lodz home record this season: 0W 1D 2L, but overall form 1W 3D 2L
- Radomiak Radom away record: 0W 0D 2L, goals for 1, against 8
- H2H last 5: Widzew won 2, Radomiak won 2, draw 1; home team won 4 of 5
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostWidzew LodzEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Radomiak's away form is poor, and Widzew are unlikely to lose at home given the H2H trend.
- Widzew Lodz home record: 0W 1D 2L
- Radomiak Radom away record: 0W 0D 2L
- H2H last 5: home team won 4, draw 1
BetBugs · Double ChancewonWidzew Lodz or DrawEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Widzew's tendency to lead at half time and Radomiak's slow starts support this.
- Widzew Lodz leading at half time in 53% of matches
- Radomiak Radom trailing at half time in 27% of matches
- H2H last 5: home team led at half time in 3 matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostWidzew LodzEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Widzew's better second half performance and Radomiak's defensive issues in later stages.
- Widzew Lodz second half goal difference: +0.1
- Radomiak Radom second half goal difference: -0.7
- H2H last 5: home team won second half in 3 matches
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostWidzew LodzEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Widzew's ability to lead at half time and hold on is plausible given Radomiak's away struggles.
- Widzew Lodz leading at half time in 53% of matches
- Radomiak Radom trailing at half time in 27% of matches
- H2H last 5: home team led at half time and won in 3 matches
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostWidzew Lodz/Widzew LodzEstimated chance25%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Widzew would need to dominate both halves, which is unlikely but possible against weak away side.
- Widzew Lodz first half win rate: 53%
- Widzew Lodz second half win rate: 40%
- Radomiak Radom away record: 0W 0D 2L
BetBugs · Win Both HalveslostWidzew LodzEstimated chance20%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Widzew are unlikely to trail at half time given their strong first half stats and Radomiak's slow starts.
- Widzew Lodz first half record: 53% lead, 13% trail
- Radomiak Radom first half record: 33% lead, 27% trail
- H2H last 5: home team led at half time in 3 matches, draw in 2
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonWidzew Lodz or DrawEstimated chance75%

Goals0 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high combined goal averages and H2H meetings are typically high-scoring.
- Widzew Lodz average goals per match: 1.8 for, 1.1 against
- Radomiak Radom average goals per match: 1.3 for, 2.5 against
- H2H last 5: 4 matches had over 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Widzew's attacking output and Radomiak's defensive frailty suggest both teams are likely to score.
- Widzew Lodz scored in 5 of last 6 league matches
- Radomiak Radom conceded in 5 of last 6 league matches
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in 4 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
First half scoring averages are moderate, but H2H trend suggests some early goals.
- Widzew Lodz average first half goals: 1.0 for, 0.4 against
- Radomiak Radom average first half goals: 0.6 for, 1.1 against
- H2H last 5: 3 matches had over 1.5 first half goals
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second half scoring is likely due to defensive fatigue and H2H pattern.
- Widzew Lodz average second half goals: 0.8 for, 0.7 against
- Radomiak Radom average second half goals: 0.7 for, 1.4 against
- H2H last 5: 4 matches had over 1.5 second half goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate first half scoring, but Radomiak's away defensive record is poor.
- Widzew Lodz first half goals for: 1.0, against: 0.4
- Radomiak Radom first half goals for: 0.6, against: 1.1
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in first half in 2 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostYesEstimated chance35%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around 10 corners combined, making over 9.5 a coin flip.
- Widzew Lodz average corners: 4.3 for, opponent corners: 5.7
- Radomiak Radom average corners: 4.9 for, opponent corners: 5.6
- Combined average corners per match: 10.0
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined shots on target average is close to 8.5, making this a borderline call.
- Widzew Lodz average shots on target: 3.8 for, opponent: 4.3
- Radomiak Radom average shots on target: 3.4 for, opponent: 5.3
- Combined average shots on target: 8.1
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 57.8% leaves no cushion vs our 45% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

1W · 1D · 3W

L2-1Radomiak RadomvWidzew ŁódźApr 18, 2026EKS

L3-2Widzew ŁódźvRadomiak RadomOct 17, 2025EKS

D1-1Radomiak RadomvWidzew ŁódźFeb 28, 2025EKS

L3-2Widzew ŁódźvRadomiak RadomAug 23, 2024EKS

W1-3Radomiak RadomvWidzew ŁódźMay 25, 2024EKS

3.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Ekstraklasa 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
13	Widzew Lodz	6	1	3	2	10-10	6	LDLWD
12	Radomiak Radom	6	2	1	3	6-13	7	WDLLL

1pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Widzew Lodz

L2-3Lech PoznanAug 30EKS

D3-3Slask WroclawAug 22EKS

L1-2Korona KielceAug 15EKS

W2-0JagielloniaAug 9EKS

D0-0Wisla PlockJul 31EKS

D2-2Motor LublinJul 26EKS

W2-0Puszcza NiepołomiceJul 19FRI

W4-3Mannsdorf-GroßenzersdorfJul 13FRI

W2-0BeşiktaşJul 10FRI

D0-0Dunajska StredaJul 4FRI

W4-0Stal RzeszówJun 27FRI

W2-1Piast GliwiceMay 23EKS

L0-1Korona KielceMay 15EKS

W3-1Lechia GdanskMay 9EKS

L0-1Legia WarszawaMay 1EKS

Radomiak Radom

W2-1Cracovia KrakowAug 29EKS

D0-0Zaglebie LubinAug 23EKS

L0-5Legia WarszawaAug 14EKS

D1-1AELAug 9FRI

L1-3Gornik ZabrzeAug 8EKS

L1-3GKS KatowiceAug 2EKS

L2-3Nea SalamisJul 25FRI

W2-1Wieczysta KrakówJul 24EKS

L1-2Pogoń SiedlceJul 18FRI

W2-1Legia Warszawa IIJul 17FRI

L1-3Legia WarszawaJul 14FRI

L2-4Dynamo KyivJul 10FRI

L1-2ŁKS ŁódźJul 4FRI

L2-3Hapoel Beer ShevaJul 1FRI

L2-6Gornik ZabrzeMay 23EKS

Squad & Injuries

Widzew Lodz

30 available

Attackers5

Midfielders12

Defenders9

Goalkeeper4

Radomiak Radom

31 available

Attackers6

Midfielders11

Defenders11

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Yes

Widzew Lodz

Widzew Lodz or Draw

Widzew Lodz or Draw

Over 2.5

Result2 of 7 landed

Goals0 of 5 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Widzew Lodz

Widzew Lodz or Draw

Widzew Lodz or Draw

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Widzew Lodz

Radomiak Radom

Squad & Injuries

Widzew Lodz

Radomiak Radom