Radomiak Radom2Motor Lublin3

HT 1–0Mon 12 Oct 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–931%

Edges0–40%

PossPossession 45%–55%ShotsShots 6–22On targetOn target 2–11CornersCorners 3–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Oct 2026, 17:40 · Europe/Bucharest

Two bottom-five sides meet at Radom, where Radomiak's home record is the one clear edge over a Motor team still without an away win.

Radomiak are the likelier winners, but a tight, low-scoring game is the better read, and a drawn first half looks live. Of the reviewed prices, over 10.5 corners at 2.5, under 2.5 goals at 2.3 and a level first half at 2.4 all offer something; the 2.4 on a Radomiak win does not.

Context

Carver's stated plan is to keep the high press he used at Lechia Gdańsk, where his 2025/26 side scored 62 league goals but conceded 65 and were relegated - the clearest note of caution around an otherwise energising appointment. A mid-season change of coach can reset shape, roles and set-piece duties between matches, and the two-week break gave him more training time than a normal week. The only direct evidence of his work in Radom so far is a 7-2 friendly win, so the immediate effect on selection and structure remains genuinely open.
- Radomiak Radom appointed John Carver as head coach on 29 September 2026 on a contract to 30 June 2027 with an option for a further season.
- Adam Sadler, previously on the coaching staff at Leicester City and Celtic, joined Carver's staff.
- Carver previously managed Lechia Gdańsk and wants to keep the high-press approach he used there, rating Radomiak's defenders above the ones he had in Gdańsk.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Oct 2026, 17:38 · Europe/Bucharest
Motor Lublin's away league record in 2026 is two draws and two defeats in four games, with five goals scored and eight conceded. A 1-1 draw at Korona Kielce on 22 August 2026 and a 1-2 defeat at Raków Częstochowa on 11 September 2026 are the most recent away results. That leaves their case for winning at Radom thinner, although the sample is only four matches.
- Motor Lublin's 2026 Ekstraklasa away record: 4 played, 0 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, 5 goals scored, 8 conceded.
- Korona Kielce 1-1 Motor Lublin, 22 August 2026.
- Raków Częstochowa 2-1 Motor Lublin, 11 September 2026.
Radomiak's final league game before the international break was a 1-5 defeat at Lech Poznan on 20 September 2026, when they allowed 26 shots and nine on target. It followed a 0-2 home loss to Piast Gliwice and sits with a season record of 20 goals conceded in nine league games. That is the main risk to a home side whose best results have come at Radom.
- Lech Poznan 5-1 Radomiak Radom, Ekstraklasa, 20 September 2026.
- Radomiak faced 26 shots and nine shots on target in the match.
- Radomiak's nine-game league record shows 7 goals scored and 20 conceded.
Cichocki cannot play against Motor Lublin while he recovers, so the extension does not alter Carver's selection for this match. It matters as squad planning: it keeps an experienced centre-back contracted through next season and shows the club is arranging its defensive depth beyond this campaign. The timing a week before the fixture makes it a boardroom decision rather than a match-week change.
- Radomiak Radom extended Mateusz Cichocki's contract to 30 June 2027; the announcement came on 7 October 2026.
- Cichocki is rehabilitating after surgery for a ruptured cruciate ligament.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Oct 2026, 17:38 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.40
The read
Radomiak carry home advantage against a Motor side still without an away win this season, and the venue split is their strongest evidence.
- Radomiak at home: W2 D1 L2, 5 scored and 7 conceded in 5
- Motor away: W0 D2 L2, 5 scored and 8 conceded in 4
- Last two league meetings both ended level (1-1, 2-2)
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostRadomiak RadomEstimated chance39%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.40
The read
Both teams start slowly and Radomiak rarely score before the break, which points to a level first half.
- Radomiak home first half: 0.2 scored and 0.6 conceded per game
- Motor away first half: 0.6 scored and 1.6 conceded per game
- Radomiak first halves in last 6: 3 goalless
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance47%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams' second-half scoring is low and evenly matched, pointing to a level closing period.
- Radomiak home second half: 0.8 for and 0.8 against per game
- Motor away second half: 0.4 for and 0.8 against per game
- Recent 6 for both sides include several goalless second halves
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Radomiak carry home advantage against a Motor side still without an away win this season, and the venue split is their strongest evidence. Two closely matched low-scoring sides and a head-to-head full of stalemates make level scores a live outcome.
- Radomiak at home: W2 D1 L2, 5 scored and 7 conceded in 5
- Motor away: W0 D2 L2, 5 scored and 8 conceded in 4
- Both clubs sit in the bottom five with 8 and 6 points from 9 games
- Motor have drawn 2 of 4 away games
BetBugs · Double ChancelostRadomiak Radom or DrawEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Radomiak's home first halves are low-scoring but they face a Motor side that concedes early away from home. Both teams start slowly and Radomiak rarely score before the break, which points to a level first half.
- Radomiak first-half goals: 0.4 for and 1.0 against per game
- Radomiak home first half: 0.2 for and 0.6 against per game
- Radomiak home first half: 0.2 scored and 0.6 conceded per game
- Motor away first half: 0.6 scored and 1.6 conceded per game
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonRadomiak Radom or DrawEstimated chance74%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Both teams have produced few goals in their recent matches, with Radomiak's last six containing three goalless or one-goal games.
- Radomiak recent 6: 3 scored and 3 conceded in total
- Motor recent 6: 4 scored and 4 conceded in total
- Motor away average 1.0 scored and 2.4 conceded per game
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Radomiak's low scoring and their recent run of clean sheets make at least one blank a slightly more likely outcome.
- Radomiak overall: 5 of 10 competitive games had both teams scoring
- Motor overall: 6 of 11 competitive games had both teams scoring
- Radomiak scored just 3 goals in their last 6 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Motor's away first halves have produced goals regularly, offsetting Radomiak's quieter starts.
- Radomiak last 6 first halves: 3 with at least one goal
- Motor last 6 first halves: 4 with at least one goal
- Motor away first half: 0.6 for and 1.6 against per game
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent second halves stay around one goal, so fewer than two after the break is the more likely result.
- Radomiak home second half total: 1.6 goals per game
- Motor away second half total: 1.2 goals per game
- Recent combined second-half rate: about 1.2 goals per match
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance58%

Match stats2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.50
The read
Radomiak generate corners heavily at home while Motor concede a steady number, pointing to a total above ten.
- Radomiak overall corners: 6.2 for and 5.7 against per game
- Radomiak home corners: 8.2 for and 4.2 against per game
- Motor corners data: 3.9 for and 3.5 against per game
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 10.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Radomiak take and allow plenty of shots at home, and Motor's away games also see a high combined volume.
- Radomiak home shots: 17.6 for and 15.0 against per game
- Motor away shots: 12.8 for and 16.8 against per game
- Radomiak overall match shots average about 32 per game
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostOver 28.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams put a steady number of shots on target and Radomiak's home games average around ten combined.
- Radomiak home shots on target: 5.2 for and 4.4 against per game
- Motor away shots on target: 4.2 for and 6.0 against per game
- Radomiak overall match shots on target average about 9.3
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams pick up a moderate number of bookings and the recent meetings were competitive, keeping four or more cards plausible.
- Radomiak overall: 2.1 yellows for and 3.0 against per game
- Motor away: 2.0 yellows for and 2.2 against per game
- No red cards recorded in either side's recent six matches
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance52%